Three Rookie Running Backs to Target Before They Explode
The running back position is the most volatile in fantasy football. It’s the easiest to manufacture production from due to being volume-based outside of the elite talents. We consistently see players finish in the top 24 purely based on positive touchdown variance and a significant workload. Because of that, buying running backs before they clearly have hold of the starting job is the smartest way to maximize value.
Targeting rookie running backs is one of the easiest ways to achieve this. Uncertainty around depth charts in the early weeks of the season; rookies needing time to learn the playbook and get acclimatized to the NFL; or simply veteran coaches who believe that you shouldn’t start a rookie immediately – there are plenty of reasons why rookie running backs tend to produce more in the second half of the season.
Here are three rookie running backs primed to explode with a clear path to relevancy you can buy for cheaper than they’ll cost by week eight:
Jaylen Wright, RB MIA
When the Dolphins drafted Wright out of Tennessee in the fourth round, it felt like a strange fit. Not because Wright doesn’t fit the Mike McDaniel scheme perfectly – he absolutely does – but because he’s incredibly similar to both De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. McDaniel seems to know what he wants at the running back position and has made it his mission to fill his roster with as many tiny speedy guys as possible. With the way his rushing scheme dominated the NFL last year, none of us should be willing to question that.
Wright was only drafted a round after Achane was taken in 2023. Achane thrived in his limited touches in 2023, but struggled with injury throughout. He was the points per game RB5, but only finished as the overall RB24. In the same offense, Raheem Mostert finished as RB5 and points per game RB4. There’s clearly room for multiple backs to thrive in this system.
As mentioned above, Wright fits this system to a tee. Achane struggled significantly with injuries last year and 2023 was just the third time in his eight-year career Mostert played more than 11 games. With backup running backs who are clearly starting down the depth chart, managers should be trying to identify a blend of talent and opportunity, with starting running backs who are prone to injury. Wright fits both categories and is set to explode if either of the backs above him miss time.
Bucky Irving, RB TB
The concerns with Irving are quite similar to Wright. Despite what his combine seemed to show, he’s a very talented player, described as “lightning in a bottle” by draft analysts during the pre-draft process. The issue is he’s a similar player to current starter Rachaad White. But this was an ongoing theme of the 2024 draft, as multiple teams took running backs who are identical to their existing starter (Sean McVay and Les Snead, this is absolutely directed at you).
Thankfully for Irving, White should not be difficult competition to beat out. In 2023, White was 41st in the NFL per Pro Football Focus grade of all running backs, putting him next to backs like Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle. White’s 3.6 yards per attempt was the lowest of any running back to finish in the top 24. In fact, you have to go to Austin Ekeler at RB26 to find a more inefficient back rushing the ball, which is not a great comparison. This is also taking into account that Tampa Bay had PFF’s fifth-highest graded offensive line for run blocking. White made his name in the receiving game, but was only 26th in PFF’s receiving grades at the running back position.
So with White profiling incredibly inefficiently, Irving has a great chance to simply beat him out for the role. This is not the same as with Jaylen Wright where we’re reliant on an injury. Irving is an incredibly natural receiver and showed elite speed on tape in college, even if this did not translate at the combine. There’s a decent chance if he can start the season hot, Irving can become the lead back on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sooner rather than later.
Audric Estime, RB DEN
One of the smartest things to target in the later rounds at the running back position is murky depth charts. The Denver Broncos are a prime example of this. Samaje Perine was cut; Javonte Williams seems to be the lead back but the coaching staff does not seem to favor him; Jaleel McLaughlin has shown upside but was a UDFA. That leaves Audric Estime, drafted in the fifth round of the NFL Draft out of Notre Dame. Estime is a bruiser of a running back who thrives off physical contact. Measuring in at 5’11 and 227 lbs, he’s incredibly compact, allowing him to grind out yards after contact.
This is quite similar to Williams, who was a broken tackle machine in college. But it’s worth noting that Williams is in the last year of his contract and is unlikely to be extended. There’s a decent chance Estime is the lead back on the Broncos going into year two, even if he does not explode for huge fantasy returns in year one. Estime and McLaughlin complement each other similarly to Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, who Sean Payton had great success with in New Orleans.
If Estime can beat out Williams, he can drastically outperform his current cost. But even if he can’t, he has a very good chance to increase in value if Williams is traded mid-season or let walk at the end of the season.
Thanks for reading – you can find me at @FF_Pancake to tell me your thoughts on the RBs I’ve chosen!
You can hear more from Lewis on his YouTube channel 'Fantasy Pancake' https://youtube.com/@fantasypancake?si=U7BLlUCqY38dTsEv
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