Dynasty Decision: Kyle Pitts
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Kyle Pitts, TE ATL
The tight end position is notoriously tricky in fantasy football, and Kyle Pitts has been a prime example of this unpredictability. Once heralded as the next big thing at the position, Pitts has seen his dynasty value fluctuate wildly over the past few seasons as he has continued to disappoint. The big question for dynasty managers now is whether to hold onto him with the hope of a return to form or cash in on his remaining value before it diminishes further.
Previous Performance
As a prospect out of Florida, Pitts was considered a generational talent. Drafted fourth overall by the Atlanta Falcons in 2021, he quickly established himself as a focal point in the Falcons’ offense. He posted an impressive 1,026 receiving yards in his rookie year, making him the first rookie tight end to surpass the 1,000-yard mark since Mike Ditka in 1961. His 110 targets and 15.1 yards per reception were also remarkable for a tight end, leading to a TE6 finish.
Following that exciting rookie season, Pitts struggled to build on it largely due to the issues at the quarterback position where a combination of Marcus Mariota, Tyler Heinicke, and Desmond Ridder flattered to deceive. In 2022, Pitts also missed time due to an MCL sprain, which then affected him throughout the 2023 season. Being less than 100% healthy in a run-first offense with poor quarterback play is enough to destroy the fantasy upside of any player.
Situation and Usage
The situation in Atlanta has been less than ideal for Pitts. The Falcons were one of the more run-heavy teams in the league under Arthur Smith, limiting the passing volume for all receivers. Pitts’ role in the offense has also been somewhat inconsistent, with his usage often fluctuating weekly. Despite his unique athleticism and ability to create mismatches, Pitts has struggled to find a consistent role that maximizes his talents.
With the additions of Kirk Cousins as quarterback and Zac Robinson as offensive play-caller, there is significant hope that Pitts can finally realize his potential.
Cousins is a significant upgrade at quarterback and should be efficient enough to carry multiple fantasy-relevant options. Robinson is another option from the Sean McVay coaching tree, and although he is an unknown option as he has never called plays before, there is an expectation that he would be more pass-heavy than Arthur Smith, who oversaw the third-most run-heavy offense in 2023.
With the changes in the offense, the situation and usage should see a significant upgrade over where things were during the 2023 season.
Contract
Pitts is still playing on his rookie contract, which runs through the 2024 season, with a fifth-year option available for 2025. The presence of the fifth-year option means he is unlikely even to enter talks over a new contract until the 2024 season has concluded. What that contract extension looks like will depend almost exclusively on how Pitts produces this season.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the TE7 in July ADP and the 62nd overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth a future first-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Pitts has been heralded as a fantasy superstar since before he stepped onto an NFL field. His price has significantly outweighed his production across his three-year career. However, heading into his fourth season, the price has dropped dramatically to the point where he now represents a value based on his historic production. Pitts can finish as the overall TE1 any given season, but as one of the three primary options in the Falcon’s offense, he has a higher floor than many of the other players in a similar price range.
It is somewhat of a “here we go again” situation but Pitts is a target in dynasty for any roster. He is young enough, and his value is incubated to the point that he should appeal to any rebuilding or noncontending roster. While he also has enough production potential in 2024 that he should be a target for any contender.
The price of a single first-round pick in a superflex league feels fair, and the recent trades highlight that as a realistic price point. However, Pitts is the type of player who will have his fans, and it could be that he is valued significantly higher by fans who believe he is still worthy of being valued as a top-three TE. I would not hesitate to ask the question of the team rostering Pitts in your league, as they could be looking to get out of him at a palatable price point to make the move. There are very few players who have league-winning potential while also representing a solid floor that is available for a single first.
- Superflex Dynasty Rankings Explained: Rich Cooling - January 31, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - January 2, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - December 26, 2024
