Off-Season Mock Drafts: Month-to-Month Changes
In case you missed it, this little event known as the NFL Combine took place a couple of weeks ago, and it’s kind of a big deal in the NFL and dynasty communities. One of my favorite parts in the aftermath of the combine is seeing everyone overreact to whatever we saw on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium, good and bad. One of the best ways to see the dynasty community react to the players’ combine performances is by comparing the month-to-month ADP data from before and after the combine. That’s precisely what I will do here today, referencing the last two months of ADP from DLF’s mock drafts.
February First Round ADP
February’s ADP probably looks the most familiar to all of us. The top three receivers, top five running backs, top tight end, and three quarterbacks make up round one. Most mocks I’ve participated in had Colston Loveland in the first and not Jaxson Dart, but it’s a superflex world, and if Dart gets selected within the top 40 in the NFL Draft, he will likely remain a late first-rounder.
March First Round ADP
Who moved? Well, kinda, nobody. Emeka Egbuka slid into the WR2 spot just ahead of Luther Burden. Omarion Hampton went from fifth to second overall but remained RB2 in the class. Quinshon Judkins moved from tenth to sixth overall, sliding up one spot positionally from RB5 to RB4. Without anyone falling on their face at the combine this year, there weren’t any notable fallers, at least at the top of the class. Although round one isn’t interesting if you like change, there is comfort in knowing there isn’t any wild variance if you hold multiple first-round picks this season.
February Second Round ADP
Looking back at this draft five years from now, I might be completely wrong, but I’m blown away by how early people are willing to take Travis Hunter. Even in the first drafts of the off-season, people were burning the 2.01 on a part-time receiver, really? I just don’t get it.
As you look at the rest of round two from February, we can already see several names that we know won’t be here in March, so let’s take a look.
March Second Round ADP
As I looked through February’s results, I thought there would be more movement among that group. Unless my math skills are worse than I think, only two players fell out of this range: Isaiah Bond and Harold Fannin. Jayden Higgins and Bhayshul Tuten moved up to replace them.
Cam Skattebo climbed from 23rd to 18th, from RB9 to RB6. Ollie Gordon stayed in round two despite being selected 24th or later in five of March’s ten mock drafts. So, again, we have a round with minimal movement. While it’s good to know things appear sticky early, it’s disappointing when you like a little chaos. I was surprised we had such little movement through 24 picks.
February Third Round ADP
I wish I had more leagues with early drafts. It would be fun to see how various people would do drafting before the combine and before the NFL draft. Round three, in particular, had several players who I suspect will squeeze into the top 24 by the end of the summer. Jayden Higgins, at 26, with an ADP of 29, is a monster steal, and so is Jalen Royals right behind him. Maybe we are just seeing the depth of this class in action, but Jack Bech, Damien Martinez, and DJ Giddens are probably too low, too.
March Third Round ADP
Jaylin Noel had one of the most significant bumps in the class, with an ADP of 30 in March after an ADP of 41 a month ago – well deserved after a phenomenal performance at the combine. Looking at February’s ADP, I mentioned D.J. Giddens as a potential climber, and he moved up about seven slots overall but only moved up from RB13 to RB12. Damien Martinez, the previous RB10 in February, is completely missing from round three by March. While he didn’t light up the combine, he didn’t perform poorly either, so his fall is a slight mystery.
February ADP Beyond Round Three
To wrap up the February rookie drafts, we saw an unknown at the time, Bhayshul Tuten, leading the way, ahead of multiple names we are more familiar with now. Jaylen Noel was criminally low even at that time, but especially now. For the most part, this ADP reflected what most of us thought we knew at the time. I was already on some of the lesser-knowns like Tuten, Breshard Smith, and Tai Felton, so I was curious to see where their ADP was headed as they became more popular.
March ADP Beyond Round Three
Looking at the later rounds in March, we’ve got many of the same folks from February. Woody Marks fell from 42nd as RB16 in February to 49th as RB20 in March. Once you get past his age (he’ll turn 25 in season), I’ve heard nothing but positive things about him over the last two-ish months, so his fall strikes me as a little odd. I’m curious to see where his ADP lands in April and how the NFL values him on draft day.
In my previous article, I looked back at the last few years of ADP data as we went through the predraft process to see if we could take anything away from our drafts of the past. My takeaway from writing that was that, collectively, the dynasty community overreacts to positive combine results and probably doesn’t react enough to poor combine results, with early impressions and draft capital being the most predictive of future success. Looking at the movement in these mocks, we might have learned that lesson. It could be a result of only a handful of unknown standouts and known disappointments at this year’s combine, but only time will tell. This played out in my rankings, too, as I often have wild swings in my rankings, but not this year. We seem to have a clear top tier in this class at each position, a solidified group in the middle tiers, and then the lesser-thans, with very little movement. We’ll see if this lack of movement holds steady or gets blown up following the NFL draft.
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: 1 QB Rookie Draft (Last Look Ahead) - April 19, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: NFL Mock Draft Compilation, Part Two - April 12, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Movers - April 5, 2025
In case you missed it, this little event known as the NFL Combine took place a couple of weeks ago, and it’s kind of a big deal in the NFL and dynasty communities. One of my favorite parts in the aftermath of the combine is seeing everyone overreact to whatever we saw on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium, good and bad. One of the best ways to see the dynasty community react to the players’ combine performances is by comparing the month-to-month ADP data from before and after the combine. That’s precisely what I will do here today, referencing the last two months of ADP from DLF’s mock drafts.
February First Round ADP
February’s ADP probably looks the most familiar to all of us. The top three receivers, top five running backs, top tight end, and three quarterbacks make up round one. Most mocks I’ve participated in had Colston Loveland in the first and not Jaxson Dart, but it’s a superflex world, and if Dart gets selected within the top 40 in the NFL Draft, he will likely remain a late first-rounder.
March First Round ADP
Who moved? Well, kinda, nobody. Emeka Egbuka slid into the WR2 spot just ahead of Luther Burden. Omarion Hampton went from fifth to second overall but remained RB2 in the class. Quinshon Judkins moved from tenth to sixth overall, sliding up one spot positionally from RB5 to RB4. Without anyone falling on their face at the combine this year, there weren’t any notable fallers, at least at the top of the class. Although round one isn’t interesting if you like change, there is comfort in knowing there isn’t any wild variance if you hold multiple first-round picks this season.
February Second Round ADP
Looking back at this draft five years from now, I might be completely wrong, but I’m blown away by how early people are willing to take Travis Hunter. Even in the first drafts of the off-season, people were burning the 2.01 on a part-time receiver, really? I just don’t get it.
As you look at the rest of round two from February, we can already see several names that we know won’t be here in March, so let’s take a look.
March Second Round ADP
As I looked through February’s results, I thought there would be more movement among that group. Unless my math skills are worse than I think, only two players fell out of this range: Isaiah Bond and Harold Fannin. Jayden Higgins and Bhayshul Tuten moved up to replace them.
Cam Skattebo climbed from 23rd to 18th, from RB9 to RB6. Ollie Gordon stayed in round two despite being selected 24th or later in five of March’s ten mock drafts. So, again, we have a round with minimal movement. While it’s good to know things appear sticky early, it’s disappointing when you like a little chaos. I was surprised we had such little movement through 24 picks.
February Third Round ADP
I wish I had more leagues with early drafts. It would be fun to see how various people would do drafting before the combine and before the NFL draft. Round three, in particular, had several players who I suspect will squeeze into the top 24 by the end of the summer. Jayden Higgins, at 26, with an ADP of 29, is a monster steal, and so is Jalen Royals right behind him. Maybe we are just seeing the depth of this class in action, but Jack Bech, Damien Martinez, and DJ Giddens are probably too low, too.
March Third Round ADP
Jaylin Noel had one of the most significant bumps in the class, with an ADP of 30 in March after an ADP of 41 a month ago – well deserved after a phenomenal performance at the combine. Looking at February’s ADP, I mentioned D.J. Giddens as a potential climber, and he moved up about seven slots overall but only moved up from RB13 to RB12. Damien Martinez, the previous RB10 in February, is completely missing from round three by March. While he didn’t light up the combine, he didn’t perform poorly either, so his fall is a slight mystery.
February ADP Beyond Round Three
To wrap up the February rookie drafts, we saw an unknown at the time, Bhayshul Tuten, leading the way, ahead of multiple names we are more familiar with now. Jaylen Noel was criminally low even at that time, but especially now. For the most part, this ADP reflected what most of us thought we knew at the time. I was already on some of the lesser-knowns like Tuten, Breshard Smith, and Tai Felton, so I was curious to see where their ADP was headed as they became more popular.
March ADP Beyond Round Three
Looking at the later rounds in March, we’ve got many of the same folks from February. Woody Marks fell from 42nd as RB16 in February to 49th as RB20 in March. Once you get past his age (he’ll turn 25 in season), I’ve heard nothing but positive things about him over the last two-ish months, so his fall strikes me as a little odd. I’m curious to see where his ADP lands in April and how the NFL values him on draft day.
In my previous article, I looked back at the last few years of ADP data as we went through the predraft process to see if we could take anything away from our drafts of the past. My takeaway from writing that was that, collectively, the dynasty community overreacts to positive combine results and probably doesn’t react enough to poor combine results, with early impressions and draft capital being the most predictive of future success. Looking at the movement in these mocks, we might have learned that lesson. It could be a result of only a handful of unknown standouts and known disappointments at this year’s combine, but only time will tell. This played out in my rankings, too, as I often have wild swings in my rankings, but not this year. We seem to have a clear top tier in this class at each position, a solidified group in the middle tiers, and then the lesser-thans, with very little movement. We’ll see if this lack of movement holds steady or gets blown up following the NFL draft.
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: 1 QB Rookie Draft (Last Look Ahead) - April 19, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: NFL Mock Draft Compilation, Part Two - April 12, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Movers - April 5, 2025
