Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Which First-Round Rookie Should I Take?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
And we’re off! Training camps are in full swing, and players are getting hyped up accordingly. The theoretical is slowly becoming tangible as the days and weeks go on.
Let’s get to it!
From the Old-School Webform…
Wherever I Maye Rome
In my 12-team superflex league, my current roster includes Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Receiver starters and a flex include Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, Drake London, and DJ Moore. I have TJ Hockenson at tight end, and also have picks 1.05 and 1.07 in my rookie draft. Should I stay and take Drake Maye at 1.05 and choose between Rome Odunze (despite having Moore), Brock Bowers, or Jonathon Brooks at 1.07? Or should I try to trade up to pick 1.03 for Jayden Daniels? The guy at 1.03 wants pick 1.05 and Moore. -TJ in Cincinnati
I’ve used the phrase “draft for talent, trade for need” a few times in this space. To be clear, this is more of a guardrail as opposed to a firm line in the sand, but the overarching sentiment is that you don’t want to reach on a rookie solely due to positional scarcity. There are assuredly times to do precisely that, which is usually when the league format heightens the importance of certain positions, much as this superflex league does. But the preferred alternative would be to simply take the best players available, hope they accumulate value, and then strike a deal to try and firm up your starting lineup.
With that said, the 2024 rookie class is noteworthy for its depth and high-end collection of talent at quarterback and receiver, meaning there could be some fantasy-ready players available. To that point, the top three picks of the NFL draft were all signal callers, with three more joining them within the draft’s next nine selections. Seven wide receivers also flew off the board, including three in the first nine picks. Overall the tight end crop was fairly weak, though Bowers stands as the best prospect in recent memory. Running backs represent the black sheep of all the positions, with the first selection in Brooks unlikely to be ready to start the season healthy.
This is all noted to set the stage for your potential options, but before doing that I want to break my own informal rule to see which positions make the most sense for your team. While Joe Burrow is a strong QB1, Matt Stafford is a squishier QB2 given his age and lower ceiling. He’s a fine option, but not one who will catapult you to your league’s upper echelon.
You’re significantly better off at receiver, with three of the top 13 players per the current superflex ADP. As the WR20, Moore isn’t terribly far behind, either.
Still, being strong at a position shouldn’t preclude you from taking another player, which is in line with the premise provided at the outset of this article. But in this particular instance, given your team’s respective strengths and weaknesses along with how it aligns with the available players, an argument for targeting a quarterback is easy to make.
Now, as to which signal caller…
As shown by DLF’s superflex rankings, Daniels and Maye are going back to back at picks 1.04 and 1.05. These seem about right to me, though there remains a possibility that one or both wind up leapfrogging receiver Malik Nabers. In a vacuum I would probably prefer Daniels due to his rushing upside, as well as his straighter path towards landing a starting spot. But all told I don’t have them as terribly discrepant.
Of course, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. If you have Daniels well above Maye, then a potential trade up seems reasonable, even if the value might not quite be there. But ultimately you’re either going to get a quarterback, or you’re going to get Nabers. Life is good at pick 1.05.
Even in a scenario where Daniels and Maye go earlier than anticipated, all is not lost. As shown in the rankings graphic above, there are two more signal callers in range with the Vikings’ JJ McCarthy and the Broncos’ Bo Nix. The latter might appear to be something of a reach at pick 1.07, but I believe this has less to do with Nix and more to do with the glut of talent ahead of him. Regardless, the operative point is you should be able to exit the draft with at least one signal caller even if you stand pat.
The last point to consider in making your selections is the health of TJ Hockenson, who tore his ACL late last season. I’m not clear who your backup is, and I also do not usually count on rookie-year production at the position even with Sam LaPorta’s stunning 2023 campaign. But Bowers is just built different.
He’s not the biggest, but reportedly ran a 4.53-second 40-yard dash at Georgia’s pro day, broke out early in college and compiled a strong dominator rating as his team’s top target two years running. Coupled with early-round draft capital and not a huge amount of roadblocks in front of him for securing targets, we may have another rookie TE1 in the cards.
Different strokes for different folks, but I wouldn’t be considering Brooks at 1.07. I understand the running back position is devalued in the NFL, and as such a second-round standing represents strong draft capital. But I just can’t see turning away real-life top-15 picks for second-round players, particularly those with only one season of strong collegiate production. Whether it’s Bowers, Odunze or a quarterback, any of these players seems like a stronger investment.
With that said, if a running back is needed to push you over the top, you might attempt something like the below. In my opinion, this would be the best use of draft capital to ensure some additional 2024 viability.
As I’ve alluded to above, there really isn’t a wrong answer when you’re talking about two of the first seven picks in a loaded rookie draft. My pie in the sky would probably be securing Maye and Bowers, but the options are plenty. Happy drafting!
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