Over the span of the next few weeks, we’re going to be bringing you our 2024 versions of the “Perfect Draft.” Anyone who has followed us for any length of time knows you can’t enter a draft without a strategy but which strategy you choose will directly affect who you want to target. With that in mind, these are the strategies we’re going to cover:
- Win Now
- Value
- Balanced
- Productive Struggle
- Fake Punt
- Bully QB/TE
- Robust RB
Today, we’ll continue the series with an analysis of a Superflex draft looking for value. In SF leagues, this is very likely the way to go. Go ahead and draft the best players available, ignore positions for the most part, and plan to flip players leading up to the start of the season. Inevitably, these teams are going to be very quarterback-heavy at the top of drafts with wide receivers mixed in throughout the first couple of rounds. Start-up drafts are usually the best time to grab QB’s, because they become very difficult to acquire once a dynasty league has begun. Younger WRs have the most value in dynasty leagues outside of the QB position.
We’re going to look at three different areas of the draft to demonstrate how to execute this strategy from anywhere in the draft order. Early is defined as picks one to four, middle as picks five to eight, and late as picks nine through 12. Many start-up draft picks are bound to be traded and every draft format is a little different, but this will give you an idea of who you can target throughout the draft.
Using July ADP, let’s have the perfect dynasty startup draft.
First Round
The top four picks in most SF Start-up Drafts are some combination of quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson. Which one you prefer really depends on your league’s scoring and how risk-averse you are. The safest pick is Mahomes, but the running upside of Allen, Hurts and Jackson can push any of those guys to the top. Injury concerns just come with the territory with mobile quarterbacks.
Allen is the pick for me, unless your league has really high negative points for turnovers, in that case, I would probably lean toward taking Mahomes.
There are a few options in the middle of the first round. The two players jumping out at me are two second-year players. The first player is Houston Texans QB CJ Stroud, the 2023 NFL Rookie of the Year, who threw for 4,108 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first season. Stroud has been rising up draft boards of late.
The second player is Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson. The fourth-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Richardson’s rookie season was cut short because of a shoulder injury. Richardson only played four games and only played two full games, but he was electric when he was on the field, throwing for three TDs and running for four more.
The injury risk is definitely there for Richardson. He is also a young prospect who hasn’t played a lot of games in his football career. He only started one season in his college career at Florida. But Richardson’s age, 22, his size 6-4, 243 pounds, and his athletic ability, 4.43 40-yard dash, and a 40-inch vertical, are just so enticing and intriguing. I can’t pass up on the possibility that Richardson breaks fantasy football.
Kyler Murray fell last season in dynasty start-up drafts due to a knee injury coming into last season. Murray came back for the last eight games of the season and played relatively well for a bad Cardinals team. Murray has a proven track record as a top 10 fantasy QB and is likely your last chance to get a proven QB with Murray’s rushing upside.
If you would rather go WR instead of QB, the end of the round is a nice spot to grab either Minnesota Vikings' Justin Jefferson or Cincinnati Bengals' Ja'Marr Chase.
