2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Rome Odunze
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Rome Odunze
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: Chicago Bears
College Team: Washington
Draft Status: Round 1; Pick 9
Odunze was a four-star recruit out of Bishop Gorman High School in Las Vegas. He led the team to a state championship in his junior year, and was named the Gatorade Nevada Player of the Year as a senior. He received over 30 collegiate offers out of high school and almost chose to go to Oklahoma before he ultimately chose to go to Washington.
A three-year starter in Seattle, Odunze proved to be one of the best wide receivers in the country. As a fourth-year junior, he led the nation in receiving yards with 1,640 and helped the Huskies to the National Championship game. After losing to Michigan, Odunze decided to go pro. He was drafted ninth overall by the Chicago Bears, where he’ll team up with fellow rookie Caleb Williams.
Talent
Rome Odunze Combine Results:
- Height: 6’ 3”
- Weight: 212 lbs
- Arm: 32.25”
- Hand: 9 1/4”
- Wing Span: 76 3/4”
- 40 Yard Dash: 4.45
- 10 Yard Split: 1.52
- Vertical Jump: 39”
- Broad Jump: 124”
- 3-Cone Drill: 6.88
- 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.03
Odunze is a classic outside X-receiver, but he also has sprinter speed and outstanding route-running ability. He’s a do-it-all wide receiver who can separate in the opening field and win jump balls against the biggest and baddest defensive backs. He has a nose for the sticks, earning a first down or touchdown on 80.4% of his receptions, an elite total.
Graphics and data courtesy of Reception Perception.
Odunze is the first wide receiver in four years to have an all-green route tree according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception. He also showed elite success against all types of coverage, including 80% success against press coverage and 83.5% success against zone.
He didn’t have much production after the catch in college, but he has the speed and the size to make people miss and break out of weak tackle attempts. His run-blocking needs some work and his route-running technique can be refined, especially when he’s changing directions. Frankly, I’m nitpicking at this point. It’s hard to find many holes in Odunze’s game. In the pre-draft process, he was my number two wide receiver.
Opportunity
Chicago Bears Depth Chart:
Depth Chart from 4for4 team depth charts.
The opportunity is certainly the biggest problem for Odunze, especially early on. Of the big three 2024 wide receivers, he is the one who landed in the worst situation and the only one who doesn’t have a case to be the best wide receiver on his team right away. With DJ Moore and Keenan Allen ahead of him, and playing at elite levels, there will not be many opportunities for Odunze to make it on the field in two wide receiver sets. The Bears also have a good pass-catching tight end in Cole Kmet and added another weapon in the passing game this off-season with D’Andre Swift. Allen is 32 years old and in the final year of his contract, so this could only be a one-season problem.
Long-term, it’s an outstanding situation for Odunze, as long as Caleb Williams lives up to the hype and Allen doesn’t re-sign. Williams has the upside to be one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and Odunze could easily be his favorite receiver. Williams and Odunze were working out together before the draft and even (coincidentally) flew to the NFL Draft together. Being rookies together, growing together and succeeding together should only make this bond stronger. While Marvin Harrison Jr and Malik Nabers have a larger opportunity to succeed in year one, Odunze actually found himself in the best long-term situation.
Risk
Images courtesy of College Football Reference.
Despite Odunze’s incredible talent and upside, he is still a very risky pick. Shane Waldron is the offensive coordinator for the Bears. Last year, with the Seattle Seahawks, we saw Waldron misuse and under-use Jaxon Smith-Njiga, a stud rookie wide receiver who had two veteran receivers starting ahead of him. His dynasty stock plummeted and now he’s being drafted well after the star rookie receivers from this year’s draft. They are different styles of receivers, but the situation Odunze is in is very similar to the one JSN was in last year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s DLF ADP History.
There is no such thing as a sure thing in dynasty rookie drafts, but Odunze checks so many boxes and has so much talent, that it’s hard to see a scenario where he doesn’t transition into at least a good NFL wide receiver. The biggest risk comes with his landing spot, and being tied to the success of Caleb Williams at quarterback.
Market
Data courtesy of DLF Startup Dynasty ADP.
Data courtesy of DLF Rome Odunze Profile.
Odunze’s value in dynasty startup drafts has been consistent throughout the pre-draft process. Now that he’s settled into a Bears uniform, he’s being drafted as the number 16 wide receiver in startup drafts at 22 overall (single-quarterback). He’s being taken just after Brandon Aiyuk and DeVonta Smith, and just before Michael Pittman and his teammate DJ Moore. It’s a fair spot for Odunze to end up, but dynasty managers will need to be patient, he won’t pay off that valuation in year one.
In rookie drafts, Odunze is locked in as the number three wide receiver and the number three non-quarterback in all formats. He is still my number two wide receiver, jumping ahead of Malik Nabers in my rankings. I trust Odunze’s talent more than I trust Nabers and, long-term, the quarterback situation is much better. You can’t go wrong with either of them, they’re elite prospects, but I would rather have Odunze.
Rome Odunze’s 1QB trade value via the DLF Trade Analyzer Tool.
On the trade market, Odunze’s value is sky-high. There are only a handful of wide receivers, and a couple of running backs, who have more value. One thing to note, Odunze’s dynasty value will almost certainly go down this year, before it goes up. Check out Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s ADP history listed above. It’s clear that if a high-end rookie wide receiver does not have success in year one, his dynasty value will go down, oftentimes drastically. Last May, JSN was ranked 25th overall in ADP, now his ADP is 57.5. Odunze’s situation is nearly identical, and his ADP is sitting at 22.8 right now. If you’re considering buying Odunze right now, it may be worth waiting until this year’s trade deadline to see if he struggles at all this year.
In conclusion, Rome Odunze is one of the best wide receivers in one of the best wide receiver classes we’ve seen in a long time. He’s a high-end talent, but he landed on a team that may not have a massive role for him available right away. His upside is outstanding, but it may take longer for Odunze to flash than it will for Harrison and Nabers, and maybe even Brian Thomas and Xavier Worthy as well. Patience will be important, but it could pay off in a huge way as early as 2025.
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