2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Jonathon Brooks
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Jonathon Brooks
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: Carolina Panthers
College Team: Texas
Draft Status: Round 2, 46th overall
Brooks is entering the draft after three seasons at Texas. He didn’t get an opportunity to play early in his career because he was sitting behind one of the best RB prospects of the last decade so his late breakout can be slightly excused. However, when he got his chance in 2023, Brooks made the most of the opportunity and rushed for 1,135 yards and 10 touchdowns in only ten games.
Talent
Jonathon Brooks Combine Results:
- Height: 6′ 0″
- Weight: 216 lbs
- Arm: 31 1/2“
- Hand: 9 1/4”
- 40-yard dash: N/A
- 10-yard split: N/A
- Vertical Jump: N/A
You can see from the film, Brooks is a special talent. He has an excellent combination of speed and explosive to find a hole and get upfield. Further, he’s arguably the best receiving back in this class and is a true weapon in the receiving game. Unfortunately for Brooks, he tore his ACL late in the 2023 season and was unable to participate in any testing events at the combine so we don’t have any times for him to work with.
Opportunity
Courtesy of 4for4.com.
Brooks was the first running back selected in the 2024 draft by the Carolina Panthers in the second round with the 46th overall pick. The Panthers needed better skill position players and addressed that need by selecting Xavier Legette and Brooks with their first two picks.
I know a lot of people are excited about Brooks ending up in Carolina, but I think there are some clear positives and negatives. When you look at the depth chart, there is no singular player you’re scared will push Brooks for playing time. Miles Sanders proved in 2023 that he’s washed, and Chuba Hubbard is not exactly the kind of player who will keep a top-50 RB selection off the field after averaging only 3.8 yards per carry last season.
However, the sheer amount of competition gives me a bit of pause. The combination of Hubbard, Sanders, and the signing of Rashaad Penny creates a lot of competition for Brooks early in his career. It doesn’t help that he is also recovering from a late-season ACL injury. The Panthers may be indicating they are willing to play the long game with Brooks and treat 2024 like a de facto redshirt/learning year.
Risk
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
When looking at Brooks’s college production, the immediate concern is his complete lack of production throughout his first two years. However, when you’re playing behind Bijan Robinson and another fourth-round selection in Roschon Johnson, your lack of production can be excused. I usually don’t like to give passes for late breakouts, but this situation warrants a bit of an exception. When he finally was given the keys to the backfield he showed that he easily could have produced at a high level anywhere else in the country if he had chosen that route.
The other risk that comes from Brooks’s time in college is the ACL injury. Players are recovering from ACL injuries better than ever before, but it’s never a guarantee for a running back. Trying to make the transition from college to the pros while also rehabbing a major knee injury is no easy task. Brooks will probably be fine in the long run, but it’s impossible to avoid the reality that this injury adds to the risk of any rookie prospect.
Finally, when looking at the NFL side of things, there is some risk with his landing spot in Carolina. I spoke about the weak but crowded RB room above, but there’s even more. While he gets to grow with a young offense and quarterback that is trying to discover its identity, Bryce Young’s struggles last season create a lot of uncertainty about the viability of this offense moving forward. If Young doesn’t improve from last year, this entire offense will once again be almost useless for fantasy purposes. I do think Young will take a step forward under Dave Canales, but it’s far from a certainty after what we saw just a season ago.
For these reasons, I think Jonathon Brooks makes for an incredibly risky RB1 prospect. Some of these concerns played a role leading up to the draft in splintering consensus on who was the best back in this class and why the class as a whole was considered so weak, but now the landing spot makes things even riskier.
Market
Courtesy of DLF’s May ADP.
Brooks sits at a very interesting spot in rookie drafts right now. I think there are a very clear top ten picks right now that can go in many different orders and those ten are clearly shown above. Based on current ADP, Brooks is sitting on top of that second group of players and is being selected at the 1.11 in rookie drafts. Brooks is good, but this seems awfully high for a running back with a ton of built-in risk. If you’re in the market for a RB in this range, I’d much rather try and trade back to the 2.03 and select Trey Benson while picking up a 2025 second in the process than staying put and taking Brooks that high.
Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
Brooks’s trade value is hard for me to wrap my head around. I don’t really want to trade him away for any of the players who are valued similarly to him. However, based on some of the risks I’ve highlighted, I’m not actively trying to acquire him either. I think he is super team-dependent. If you’re not planning on competing in 2024, Brooks makes a ton of sense for your team. He’s a player who will see his value spike in 2025 once he’s a year removed from the injury with the backfield to himself.
However, if you came in 2nd last year and are sitting at 1.11 and want to go for it again in 2024, Brooks could help you acquire an immediate-impact RB2 or WR3 that will start for you all season.
I think the smartest move might be to wait until the middle of the season and see if Brooks’s manager gets frustrated with his slow start and is willing to sell for a discount.
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