2024 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Ben Sinnott
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Ben Sinnott
Position: Tight End
Pro Team: Washington Commanders
College Team: Kansas State
Draft Status: Round 2, 53rd overall
Talent
Ben Sinnott Combine Results:
- Height: 6’4’’
- Weight: 250 lbs
- Arm: 32 3/8’’
- Hand: 9 1/2’’
- 40-yard dash: 4.68
- 10-yard split: 1.59
- Vertical Jump: 40’’
Courtesy of RAS.
Sinnott had a great 2023 season but he really exploded onto the NFL scene after he dominated the NFL combine. His RAS of 9.73 ranks 33rd out of 1,199 eligible tight ends who participated in the combine since 1987.
This athleticism shines through on the tape when you watch Sinnott play. His short-area quickness and explosiveness are both elite and benefit his route running and YAC ability. Sinnott was sixth in yards after catch and ninth in yards per route run of all tight ends in college football last season.
Opportunity
Courtesy of 4for4 Depth Charts.
Sinnott was selected by the Commanders in the second round of April’s draft and there weren’t many better landing spots for a rookie tight end. Washington signed Zach Ertz to a one-year deal this off-season, but at 33 years old he isn’t the stiffest competition anymore. Ertz only had 27 receptions for 187 yards and a single touchdown last year while missing more time with injury, and even with his presence Trey McBride was able to emerge as one of the top tight end options in dynasty.
Not only does Sinnott not have a lot of competition from a weak tight end room, but the wide receivers in Washington are not very impressive either. Terry McLaurin is obviously the #1 option in this offense, but after him there are a lot of targets up for grabs. Jahan Dotson has regressed tremendously since the first month of his rookie season, and after him are a bunch of insignificant veterans and Luke McCaffrey.
There is a real path for Sinnott to be second on the team in targets in his rookie season and it wouldn’t even require any injuries for that to happen.
Risk
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
As we will discuss below, Sinnott’s dynasty ADP has exploded over the last few months following the combine and the NFL Draft. Once a late third-round rookie pick and valued outside the top 225 players, now Sinnott is routinely being drafted in the second round of rookie drafts and is approaching top-150 territory. Acquiring Sinnott at his current price might be a little bit foolish now that he’s ballooned this much without stepping foot on an NFL field.
There are two other potential risks with Sinnott they are very closely related thanks to the position he plays. He was a walk-on fullback at Kansas State in 2020 and didn’t even start playing tight end at the college level until 2022. Even over these last two seasons for the Wildcats, Sinnott played more of an H-back role than a traditional tight end position and regularly lined up in the backfield.
The reason that is concerning is because of the overall tight end learning curve at the NFL level. Typically a tight end takes three or four seasons to learn the nuances of the position and really blossom into a complete player. Evan Engram, David Njoku, Dalton Schultz, and Mark Andrews all represent that typical growth that happens for tight ends and these were guys who played tight end their entire time in college. There is potential risk associated with Sinnott if he isn’t able to fully grasp the tight end position at the NFL level assuming he moves away from the H-back position he played at Kansas State.
Market
Courtesy of DLF’s May ADP.
Sinnott is the 28th overall player in superflex rookie drafts but I have a feeling this will change once June’s data becomes available. In almost every single rookie draft I’ve participated in or seen, Sinnott is going at the end of the second round.
I loved Sinnott in the third round and earlier in the spring I targeted him at that position a lot, however, I haven’t drafted a lot of him lately. There are usually other WRs or RBs I’m targeting in the same range before Sinnott now that his ADP has climbed closer to what I would call his ceiling. If you really like Sinnott and have to draft him in the 2.10-2.12 range to make sure you get him then I wouldn’t say that was a bad decision, it’s just slightly too rich for my taste.
Courtesy of DLF ADP History.
I mentioned it a bit earlier when discussing his risk, but this chart shows that Sinnott’s value has skyrocketed since March. There has been nearly a 100-spot jump in ADP over the last two months following his combine performance and the NFL Draft. In March, Sinnott was TE35 and had an ADP of 238. That’s vastly different from his current value of TE16 with an ADP of 148.
If you acquired Sinnott at his March price you should be very happy about that but if you’re looking to acquire him now you are definitely paying a premium without ever seeing him play a down of NFL football. Buying at what looks like the top of the market is always risky. Chances are his value will dip at some point this season and I find it hard to imagine a scenario where he cracks into the top-10 dynasty tight end conversation with how many young stars currently dominate the position.
Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
I’ll be honest with you, I’m not sure if the trade analyzer is properly updated to reflect this crazy spike in Sinnott’s value over the last two months. I would trade every single one of the players on this list for Sinnott, excluding Blake Corum, even though the trade analyzer values him half as much as some of those names.
Because of everything I’ve mentioned above, it’s significantly more difficult to acquire Sinnott today than it was, and for that reason, I don’t suggest trading for him at this moment. 2023 was an outlier in terms of rookie tight end production, it’s almost inevitable that at some point this season Sinnott will struggle and there will be a much more reasonable asking price in trade negotiations and that’s when I suggest you try and acquire this super athletic and talented rookie pass catcher.
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
Situation
Name: Ben Sinnott
Position: Tight End
Pro Team: Washington Commanders
College Team: Kansas State
Draft Status: Round 2, 53rd overall
Talent
Ben Sinnott Combine Results:
- Height: 6’4’’
- Weight: 250 lbs
- Arm: 32 3/8’’
- Hand: 9 1/2’’
- 40-yard dash: 4.68
- 10-yard split: 1.59
- Vertical Jump: 40’’
Courtesy of RAS.
Sinnott had a great 2023 season but he really exploded onto the NFL scene after he dominated the NFL combine. His RAS of 9.73 ranks 33rd out of 1,199 eligible tight ends who participated in the combine since 1987.
This athleticism shines through on the tape when you watch Sinnott play. His short-area quickness and explosiveness are both elite and benefit his route running and YAC ability. Sinnott was sixth in yards after catch and ninth in yards per route run of all tight ends in college football last season.
Opportunity
Courtesy of 4for4 Depth Charts.
Sinnott was selected by the Commanders in the second round of April’s draft and there weren’t many better landing spots for a rookie tight end. Washington signed Zach Ertz to a one-year deal this off-season, but at 33 years old he isn’t the stiffest competition anymore. Ertz only had 27 receptions for 187 yards and a single touchdown last year while missing more time with injury, and even with his presence Trey McBride was able to emerge as one of the top tight end options in dynasty.
Not only does Sinnott not have a lot of competition from a weak tight end room, but the wide receivers in Washington are not very impressive either. Terry McLaurin is obviously the #1 option in this offense, but after him there are a lot of targets up for grabs. Jahan Dotson has regressed tremendously since the first month of his rookie season, and after him are a bunch of insignificant veterans and Luke McCaffrey.
There is a real path for Sinnott to be second on the team in targets in his rookie season and it wouldn’t even require any injuries for that to happen.
Risk
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
As we will discuss below, Sinnott’s dynasty ADP has exploded over the last few months following the combine and the NFL Draft. Once a late third-round rookie pick and valued outside the top 225 players, now Sinnott is routinely being drafted in the second round of rookie drafts and is approaching top-150 territory. Acquiring Sinnott at his current price might be a little bit foolish now that he’s ballooned this much without stepping foot on an NFL field.
There are two other potential risks with Sinnott they are very closely related thanks to the position he plays. He was a walk-on fullback at Kansas State in 2020 and didn’t even start playing tight end at the college level until 2022. Even over these last two seasons for the Wildcats, Sinnott played more of an H-back role than a traditional tight end position and regularly lined up in the backfield.
The reason that is concerning is because of the overall tight end learning curve at the NFL level. Typically a tight end takes three or four seasons to learn the nuances of the position and really blossom into a complete player. Evan Engram, David Njoku, Dalton Schultz, and Mark Andrews all represent that typical growth that happens for tight ends and these were guys who played tight end their entire time in college. There is potential risk associated with Sinnott if he isn’t able to fully grasp the tight end position at the NFL level assuming he moves away from the H-back position he played at Kansas State.
Market
Courtesy of DLF’s May ADP.
Sinnott is the 28th overall player in superflex rookie drafts but I have a feeling this will change once June’s data becomes available. In almost every single rookie draft I’ve participated in or seen, Sinnott is going at the end of the second round.
I loved Sinnott in the third round and earlier in the spring I targeted him at that position a lot, however, I haven’t drafted a lot of him lately. There are usually other WRs or RBs I’m targeting in the same range before Sinnott now that his ADP has climbed closer to what I would call his ceiling. If you really like Sinnott and have to draft him in the 2.10-2.12 range to make sure you get him then I wouldn’t say that was a bad decision, it’s just slightly too rich for my taste.
Courtesy of DLF ADP History.
I mentioned it a bit earlier when discussing his risk, but this chart shows that Sinnott’s value has skyrocketed since March. There has been nearly a 100-spot jump in ADP over the last two months following his combine performance and the NFL Draft. In March, Sinnott was TE35 and had an ADP of 238. That’s vastly different from his current value of TE16 with an ADP of 148.
If you acquired Sinnott at his March price you should be very happy about that but if you’re looking to acquire him now you are definitely paying a premium without ever seeing him play a down of NFL football. Buying at what looks like the top of the market is always risky. Chances are his value will dip at some point this season and I find it hard to imagine a scenario where he cracks into the top-10 dynasty tight end conversation with how many young stars currently dominate the position.
Courtesy of DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
I’ll be honest with you, I’m not sure if the trade analyzer is properly updated to reflect this crazy spike in Sinnott’s value over the last two months. I would trade every single one of the players on this list for Sinnott, excluding Blake Corum, even though the trade analyzer values him half as much as some of those names.
Because of everything I’ve mentioned above, it’s significantly more difficult to acquire Sinnott today than it was, and for that reason, I don’t suggest trading for him at this moment. 2023 was an outlier in terms of rookie tight end production, it’s almost inevitable that at some point this season Sinnott will struggle and there will be a much more reasonable asking price in trade negotiations and that’s when I suggest you try and acquire this super athletic and talented rookie pass catcher.
