Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: What is Derrick Henry Worth?
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’re more than aware of the massive implications of this past week’s 2024 NFL Draft. For some teams like the Chicago Bears, hope springs eternal with the selections of the rookie QB1 and a potential top-flight receiver. Other teams such as the Atlanta Falcons likely left their fans scratching their heads, using premium draft capital to make curious (if perhaps redundant) selections. Fortunately, DLF has you covered with rapid reactions, updated mock drafts, and analysis of the updated situations for both rookies and veterans alike! If you have any specific questions surrounding the draft aftershocks, don’t hesitate to submit a question using the mechanisms linked above.
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
One Pick to Rule Them All?
Which side do you prefer for a contending roster in a 12-team, superflex, TE-premium PPR league – pick 1.01, or Trevor Lawrence, Derrick Henry, 2024 picks 1.05 and 2.05, and a 2025 second round pick? Of note, the team trading pick 1.01 also has pick 1.02.
To the Trade Analyzer!
On the surface, this appears to be a smash accept for the Lawrence side, with the total value nearly twofold that of pick 1.01. But as always we need to apply some nuance, particularly when looking at a consolidation deal where none of the pieces on the “Team B” side are worth even 75% of the sole asset on “Team A.”
First and foremost, I’m more or less factoring out the second-round picks. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, receiving value in this range is more of a luxury than something bankable. Of course, and especially in deeper drafts as 2024 appears to be, there should be good players available. But in a 12-team league there will have already been 16 selections prior to pick 2.05, meaning the meat on the bone will be dwindling.
It’s important to remember the Trade Analyzer seeks to assess the value of each individual piece in a vacuum – I personally don’t believe pick 2.05 is worth 17.5% of pick 1.01, and this is heightened when it’s part of the consolidation side. While I won’t refer to it as “window dressing,” I believe its inclusion serves to obfuscate rather than add value. The 2025 second is somewhat more intriguing, because the team receiving pick 1.01 is trading two likely starters and thereby making their team (and subsequent pick) worse. It’s always good to collect futures assets, but here again I think we’re looking at more sizzle than steak.
Next up is the Big Dog, Derrick Henry. Despite playing on one of the worst offenses in the league, ol’ reliable Henry still finished as an RB1, concluding the season as the PPR RB10 despite negative game script. To that latter point, Henry had one of the lighter workloads of his career at only 16.5 carries per game, down from 21.8 in 2022. He still managed a fine 12 scores, but a loss of volume for a player who doesn’t function much in the passing game is a problem.
It’s fair to wonder if the seemingly ageless veteran is finally losing a step. Per the advanced metrics, his yard-after-carry per attempt (YAC/Att) fell by 0.2 from 2022, and were the worst of his career. He also didn’t break as many tackles, with the second worst efficiency of his career (Att/Br).
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
I’m personally of the belief that Henry has some gas left in the tank, and that moving to the Baltimore Ravens will do wonders for his numbers. But at 30 years old, we have to consider that Father Time is coming sooner rather than later. If that is indeed the case, Henry may very well be unplayable and untradeable, and his contributions to the value of the trade will ultimately be mitigated.
Perhaps the key asset in this deal is Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. After a disastrous rookie season, Lawrence seemed to get back on track in his second season when he finished as the QB7. However, despite adding Calvin Ridley to the mix last year, Lawrence more or less plateaued with his completion percentage and YPA, and notably went down from a +17 TD:INT differential in 2022 to a +7 in 2023. He ran the ball a bit more, but this isn’t where he derives a large share of his value.
While it’s rumored Jacksonville is looking to extend the former 1.01, I think it’s fair to say the early returns have been middling. Lawrence was viewed as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, but simply hasn’t played like it. I don’t view it as any sort of lock that he’s going to improve appreciably, with a low-end QB1 outcome representing his ceiling.
Presumptive pick 1.01, quarterback Caleb Williams, is interestingly viewed as the best prospect since, well, Lawrence! It’s fair to ask the exact same questions about him, as he’s yet to prove anything at the professional level. But the fact is he will command insane trade value right now, particularly after the Bears doubled down with receiver Rome Odunze, adding to a stable already including DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. If you’re trading away the rights to select him, you should be confident on your return.
Pick 1.05 should yield another top-ten real-life pick in either Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or Malik Nabers. If we assume a positive outcome here, you need to ask yourself what you view as the ceilings for any of these players. If it’s something like 75-80% of Williams’ value, then I could see pulling the trigger if you’re happy with Lawrence’s ceiling and believe Henry will push your running back corps over the top.
But if you’re hesitant about Lawrence and/or Henry, there’s a very firm argument to be made for rejecting the deal, and requesting something more concrete and larger in value in return, closer to a one-for-two trade (pick 1.05 and a better piece than Lawrence, and removing the ancillary parts). Though it would seemingly defy value, four quarters do not inherently equal a dollar – and in fact, said dollar could be worth more than six to eight quarters if they don’t add value to your starting lineup. If you really believe in Williams’ ceiling and smaller pieces don’t help you, standing pat could be the prudent move.
Speaking of Derrick Henry…
For a team that’s weaker at running back in a 12-team, PPR league which side do you prefer – Derrick Henry or pick 2.03?
Yup, here’s that man again!
The Trade Analyzer isn’t terribly helpful here, as I’d say these values are more or less in the “drift” range, especially considering the relatively lower magnitudes of value. So let’s next consider the potential players available if you wind up keeping the pick.
If we’re sticking with ball carriers, it’s just not the best year for it! You’re likely too far back to nab newly minted Carolina running back Jonathon Brooks, though Arizona’s Trey Benson is a possibility. The latter received reasonable draft capital being selected in the early third round, but will likely be blocked off from immediate production by veteran James Conner. Notably however, though he has the size of a potential bell-cow ball carrier to go with 4.39-second wheels (40-yard dash), he never exceeded 156 carries in a single collegiate season. When it comes to volume, my general rule of thumb is to avoid projecting out larger usage than a player has received previously, as I assume there was likely a reason for the limitation (see: Tony Pollard in 2023).
To be clear, you don’t have to take a running back at pick 2.03, I was just looking for an immediate apples-to-apples comparison. There would appear to be receivers available who were taken with NFL first and second-round draft capital, as well as a top-three rookie quarterback. The goal in a rookie draft is to make your team better by adding general value and skill, a trade could always follow later – if you like the guys in this range, you need to map out what you perceive to be a likely dynasty trajectory for them.
On the other side of the bargaining table sits Henry, whose numbers I detailed above. But while I won’t reiterate that assessment, I’ll instead play Devil’s Advocate with my prior self. Instead of looking at his potential future pitfalls, we should consider what a one to two-year window of prosperity could resemble.
Why the change in attitude?
It’s simple really – in the proposed trade in the question above, Henry was being used as a pawn. In this hypothetical one-for-one swap, both assets are now on even footing. More importantly, though we’re not firing blanks here, we’re dealing with lesser trade capital. The deal involving pick 1.01 has the potential to hugely alter each team’s future. A deal with a second-round pick and an aging ball carrier is more seeking to polish out each team’s rough edges.
Given this, and given my thoughts above on second round picks, I’m likely to side with Henry here. The Ravens gave him $9 million guaranteed, with a contract ceiling of $20 million over two years – while not massive, it’s not exactly chump change, either. This is all to say one of the smarter NFL franchises views him as a worthwhile investment, and though his numbers declined in 2023 he didn’t exactly fall off a cliff. Even knowing he’s a short-term rental, it would not surprise me if what he’s able to do through 2025 eclipses the ceiling of whoever would be available at pick 2.03.
