Dynasty Decision: Jared Goff
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Jared Goff, QB DET
Goff hasn’t been the sexiest of fantasy assets, but over his career, he has been undervalued and overproduced. However, with a looming contract situation and a potential new era for the Lions. Could it be the right opportunity to sell Goff before his value potentially drops?
Previous Performance
Goff walked into the league as the number one pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, only to follow up with one of the worst rookie seasons we have ever seen from a quarterback. However, luckily for him, the 2017 season brought Sean McVay to the Rams, and an immediate reversal of his value and production followed. In the following three seasons, he was impressive, combining volume with remarkable efficiency and reliance on his surrounding weapons to consistent fantasy production.
However, a down 2020 season saw Goff traded away to the Detroit Lions in what many saw as a salary dump. The Rams had to pay additional draft capital to encourage the Lions to take on Goff. However, after a turbulent first season, he combined with play-caller Ben Johnson to back-to-back QB1 seasons. He looks impressive, from the pocket where he distributes the ball to an impressive collection of weapons. His fantasy production has undoubtedly relied on the play-caller and surrounding talent, but when both are in place, Goff has produced. He has finished as a top-12 quarterback in four of the last seven seasons.
Situation and Usage
Throughout his career, Goff has been incredibly reliant on the play-caller and surrounding talent. He’s produced for fantasy when both have been in a good place. When both have been subpar, he has struggled. Luckily, in Detroit currently, he has one of the best offensive minds calling plays in Ben Johnson and an impressive collection of skill position players while playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the entire league.
Johnson shocked everyone when he decided to stay in Detroit for another season. He has shown a unique ability to create advantageous looks for his players and simple reads with which Goff can thrive. There will again be an expectation that he will leave after this season, which raises concern about who will be next calling plays.
The skill positions are pretty well stocked in Detroit. Sam LaPorta is one of the best tight ends in the entire league and should take a step forward in his sophomore season. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a superstar at the receiver position and is a player who consistently gets open on money downs, in the backfield, the Lions have an elite 1-2 punch with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Things leave more to be desired at the wide receiver position outside of St. Brown. Jameson Williams hasn’t turned into the player he was drafted to be, but there is an expectation that the Lions will likely draft a receiver early in a few weeks.
Goff’s situation should be elite again in the 2024 season and may take a hit if Johnson leaves. However, there is some incubation there, considering the talent around Goff on offense.
Contract
Contractually, Goff may be the most fascinating player in the entire league this off-season. He is due to play the 2024 season in the final year of his four-year $ 134 million extension, which he signed with the Rams in September 2019. There is an expectation that the Lions will likely look to lock up their signal-caller; however, what that extension looks like will be fascinating. Goff is a competent starting quarterback, but he is far from elite, and the Lions could find themselves in a tricky position financially when it comes to retaining their talented players should they pay him elite money. However, given the roster is in a championship window now, will they want to risk all of that for the sake of not paying Goff and having to start all over again at the quarterback position?
I would expect Goff to sign a contract similar to Baker Mayfield or Daniel Jones, where he gets a couple of years of guaranteed money and around $30-40m per year. That would allow the Lions to reward him while also maintaining roster flexibility to build a championship team.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the QB19 in March ADP and the 38th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth a random first-round pick in a Superflex league or the 1.07 in the current draft. Recent trades are below and are pretty aligned with the value in the trade analyzer:
Conclusion
Goff is certainly not a sexy player to be building your dynasty team around. However, he has been consistently undervalued over the past three seasons and yet continues to produce solid fantasy seasons. The Lions have been successful enough with him under center that I expect them to retain him longer term, and there is enough around him that even if Johnson leaves, Goff should still be reliable for fantasy.
You’re in a dream scenario if you’re a contender and have Goff as your QB3. He is very reliable health-wise and is the perfect player to have step in for bye weeks and injury replacement. I would happily pay the prices above to acquire him as a contender to help solidify my roster for a championship run. I would be slightly nervous about him as my QB2 given his lower-than-ideal ceiling, but if you’re loaded elsewhere and have a boom/bust type at QB3, I could potentially believe in that.
If you’re a rebuilding team, now might not be the ideal time to move on from Goff. Everyone is chasing the shiny new toy, and you will struggle to get any significant value in return. Instead, I would be looking to pivot off him either once he signs his new contract or once the season has started and there are quarterback injuries. You may be able to get more than just a mediocre first-round pick at that point.
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