2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Jonathon Brooks, RB Texas
Has Texas become the running back university? Last year, we saw Bijan Robinson selected with the eighth overall pick, and then Roschon Johnson was the first running back taken on day three. Jonathon Brooks was waiting in the wings, patiently anticipating his chance to be the starting running back in Austin. Once he got his chance, he took advantage of it and climbed the 2024 running back rankings. However, an ACL injury derailed his season and added a massive red flag to his rookie profile.
We’ll dig into it all with Brooks and determine his value in dynasty fantasy football leagues.
The Stats
Images courtesy of Sports Reference.
Brooks was a four-star recruit out of Hallettsville, Texas, a town halfway between Houston and San Antonio. He led his team to its first state championship game in school history, falling just short of the title against Jim Ned in 2020. He ran for 305 yards and three touchdowns in the state title game, but that wasn’t enough to bring home the title. He rushed for an astonishing 3,530 yards and 62 touchdowns as a senior, carrying it for 12 yards per carry.
He was also the team’s punter and made first-team all-state as a punter and a running back. He was also first-team all-district in basketball. He ranked 25th in the country at running back by 247Sports in his recruiting class. He only received offers from seven schools, including Texas Tech and Colorado State. Texas was the largest program to make an offer, one that he accepted, enrolling in 2021.
Playing behind two future NFL running backs, Brooks’s first two seasons in Austin were quiet. He ran the ball 51 times for 340 yards in his freshman and redshirt freshman seasons. He flashed in a 55-14 win over Kansas in the 2022 season. He ran the ball 11 times for 108 yards and two touchdowns in mop-up duty, including a 70-yard touchdown. In the blowout win, Bijan Robinson had a big game as well, rushing for 243 yards and four touchdowns himself.
Brooks finally got an opportunity to lead the Longhorns backfield last season, and he certainly took advantage of it. In just ten full games, he got 187 carries for 1,139 yards and 10 touchdowns. On top of that, he added 25 receptions for 286 yards and a touchdown in the air. Through the first ten games of the season, he ranked sixth in the nation in rushing yards. He was second in the Big 12 in all-purpose yards and third in rushing yards and total touchdowns.
He went for 218 yards and two touchdowns in a win over Kansas. He followed that game up with an impressive performance in the Red River Showdown against Oklahoma. He carried the ball 22 times for 129 yards and a touchdown, catching five balls for 34 yards. Despite the big game, Texas lost the game, the only game Brooks lost in 2023.
Unfortunately, he suffered an ACL injury that ended his sophomore season prematurely. Despite the injury, he was still a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award and earned All-Big 12 Second Team honors. While he didn’t see a large volume of touches at the college level, NFL Next Gen Stats gave him a production score of 80 for his college career, the second highest in the 2024 running back class behind Audric Estimé. Despite having a few more years of college eligibility, he decided to declare for the NFL Draft.
The Film
For more film of Jonathon Brooks, check out his DLF Profile.
Brooks has some very impressive tape from his college game. He’s a powerful running back who runs low and is still light enough on his feet to make defenders miss. He certainly isn’t the fastest running back in the class, but he accelerates well once he has some space. He also shows a really nice ability to stop on a dime and make cuts and moves to evade defenders. What he does really well is find the hole in the offensive line, build up speed and power through the hole, and fall forward with the tackle. He can run in both the zone and the gap scheme, making him a versatile option for an NFL offense.
As the game speeds up at the NFL level, Brooks could see himself falling behind, especially as he recovers from his ACL injury. Hopefully he doesn’t lose his acceleration with his knee injury, but that is a risk that an NFL team will have to take when they draft him.
He does well in the passing game, but he isn’t an elite route runner. Most of his catches come on dump-offs where he is the emergency safety valve. He also struggled at times in pass protection.
He is about as raw a prospect as you see coming into the NFL. There is no tread on his tires and, once he’s healthy, he should come in fresh with plenty of miles left on his legs. He only had 238 attempts over three years at the college level, so he should be able to be molded by an offensive coordinator into the running back they need him to be.
He earned a Pro Football Focus rushing grade of 91.5 this past season, which was the 13th-highest grade in the NCAA last year. Audric Estimé was the only high-end 2024 draft prospect who graded higher than he did. PFF gave him an elusive rating of 140.3, the third-highest grade in 2023 amongst running backs with at least 150 carries.
Lance Zierlein gave Brooks the highest grade of all of this season’s running backs at 6.38, in a range which he describes players as “will eventually be plus starter.” That would’ve been the second-highest grade in last year’s class, behind Bijan Robinson, and it would’ve tied with Breece Hall for the highest grade in the 2022 class. He compared Brooks to fellow Longhorn Jamaal Charles, saying he has “similar size and traits as a runner.”
The Measurables
Image courtesy of NFL.com.
While recovering from his ACL injury, Brooks did not participate in NFL Combine drills, but he was present for the measurements and the medicals. At six feet and 216 lbs., his size will not be a problem at the NFL level. I stood next to him in the NFL Combine media room, and he was a strong-looking player. He was also walking around the room without a brace on his knee and appeared to be moving just fine.
We obviously didn’t get to see him perform at Texas’s Pro Day either. Just like NFL teams, fantasy football managers have nothing more than tape to help them form an opinion on him.
Texas RB Jonathon Brooks told me he has a 30-visit scheduled with the Dallas Cowboys.
He remains on track in his recovery and is expected to be cleared in time for training camp. pic.twitter.com/rs243031nF
— Nick Harris (@NickHarrisDC) March 20, 2024
The Value
Image courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
Draft capital and landing spot will be important factors in determining rookie running back values this season. He is generally considered among the top three to five running backs in the class for both fantasy and the NFL. The NFL Mock Draft Database ranks him as the second running back selected off the board in most drafts, just behind Trey Benson out of Florida State. The consensus for Brooks is that he’ll be a third-round pick. For now, if it wasn’t for his ACL injury, I’d like Brooks over Trey Benson, but the injury is absolutely a problem.
Image courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
With his ACL injury, fantasy managers and NFL teams cannot expect much from him in his rookie season. Even with the positive reports about his health, running backs take a long time to recover from these injuries. The reinjury risk is also greater with these players. JK Dobbins and Javonte Williams have been battling off these types of knee injuries for years. He suffered the injury in November, late last season, so that has to have an impact on his dynasty fantasy value.
There’s a 17% decrease in NFL RB production in year 1 post-op ACL. What’s worse, Dobbins is more than a year removed and still wasn’t ready today. Wish him the best but at best he’s an RB2 on the backside of 2022. https://t.co/Axo9CEJksb
— Edwin Porras, DPT (@FBInjuryDoc) September 11, 2022
As for his landing spot, the Cowboys appear to be the consensus pick for Brooks, but I’m not sure if that is a likely spot for him. The Cowboys do not have a running back better than Rico Dowdle on the roster right now. They need to find someone who can lead this backfield right away starting week 1. Looking around the league, the Chargers or Raiders are two teams that make sense to me. They have backs on the roster who can bridge the gap and, once Brooks is back to 100%, they’re going to lean on the run often. The Giants would be a nice landing spot as well, splitting the load with Devin Singletary to try to replace Saquon Barkley.
Data from DLF One Quarterback ADP
In March mock drafts for one-quarterback leagues, he is the 24th-ranked running back and 85th player overall. In superflex, he is the RB17 and still the 85th player selected. He is being drafted behind Tyjae Spears and Javonte Williams but before Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard.
Meanwhile, in rookie drafts, he is the second running back being selected, behind Trey Benson. In 1QB he is going 13th overall. The DLF Rankers agree with the ADP, he’s the second running back and the 12th-ranked player overall.
Dynasty Outlook
Jonathon Brooks is an impressive running back prospect who could’ve been the cream of this running back class, if not for two things. The ACL injury and the lack of playing time at Texas have to concern fantasy football managers and NFL decision-makers. I wish he went back to college for at least another season to prove he’s healthy and capable of lasting an entire season before entering the NFL. At the same time, he’s still considered one of the best running backs in the draft, even with those two glaring issues. Therefore, coming out at this time makes sense for him. If he does lose something in the recovery process, then he’s already inked his rookie contract.
I’m torn on him in dynasty drafts. Without the injury, I think he’s clearly the best running back in the draft. But, the ACL injury could take him completely off of some NFL teams’ draft boards. He is not off of my draft board, and he is probably going to go into the rookie draft as my number-one back, but I almost don’t want to be the one to draft him. I think the optimal strategy for Brooks could be to let someone else draft him and then buy low on him if he comes back and struggles. While this strategy might work, I believe his ADP reflects the risk that you’re taking in drafting him. At the end of the first and in the early second, there are no sure things. While Brooks may be risky, there are risks associated with the wide receivers in that range as well. Once rookie drafts get out of the single-digit picks, he should be considered, especially if for teams with depth at the position who can be patient.
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