Welcome to Monday Mocks, where I’ll bring you…you guessed it, a new mock draft every Monday during the off-season. In my opinion, drafting is the best part of fantasy football, so I do as much of that as I can. This series will be filled with all types of mocks. We’ll draft startups, rookies, devys, and more.
The 2023 NFL regular season is now officially over, which feels like an ideal time to put a bow on this year’s rookie class. When dynasty managers hold their rookie drafts during the offseason, there is an innate understanding that the annual first-rounds will be comprised of major hits and disappointing busts once we actually see these players on an NFL field. That means player value, especially early in their respective careers, is always changing. With all of that said, this year feels like another extreme of what has been present in past years. Those first-round busts have lost essentially all value and the surprising late-rounders are now being valued as first-round dynasty startup picks…well, at least one of them.
Here’s my final 2023 rookie mock draft, based on superflex league settings. Just for reference, I’ve also included each player’s preseason rookie ADP.
ROUND ONE:
1.01 - CJ Stroud, QB HOU (Preseason ADP = 1.04)
In offseason rookie drafts, Stroud was part of the threesome of top quarterbacks that the dynasty community debated all season. Ultimately, in most drafts, as well as rookie ADP, Stroud settled in as the QB3. While the others struggled, Stroud flourished immediately, reeling off three QB1 finishes in his first four games. That high level of production continued, including a four-game stretch in which Stroud passed for more than 300 yards and accounted for multiple scores in each contest. Stroud has quickly climbed the dynasty rankings, and is currently the QB7 according to our rankings. I’d personally value him as highly as the QB4 and I think he’s the easy choice here at 1.01 in this 2023 rookie draft do-over.
There are multiple players who have a case for the 1.02 spot in this mock draft, each possessing high-upside and having already established near-elite production. With the superflex format, I lean towards the quarterback position and few in the league have the talent of Richardson. The rookie played only four games before suffering a season-ending injury and missed snaps in three of the four games he started. He was still able to produce weekly fantasy finishes of QB4 (Week One) and QB2 (Week Four). Richardson’s four rushing scores were good for seventh among quarterbacks, despite the limited time on the field. Even more encouraging was Richardson’s solid performance as a passer, which included just one interception on the year. The injuries are concerning, yet Richardson is still the QB9 in DLF rankings with certain top-five upside.
