Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week One

Welcome to my in-season content series for this season, where I will simplify as many observations as I can into TLDR takeaways from NFL player usage and performance each week.

I’ll attempt to highlight as many things as I can that have underrated potential in dynasty. Don’t expect this series to replace a waiver column. It’s a deeper dive for potentially important dynasty observations.

Let’s TLDR the week one data, and process the parts of each roster that matter in dynasty.

Weekly note

It’s week one, so here’s an evergreen reminder that will come in handy. This is when we have the most fake top 12 players in rankings. Points per game is not yet more effective at predicting the seasonal outcome of players as preseason rankings.

However, they may be more accurate than you think.

Around 35% of the wide receiver and running back positions will be accurate. Between two to six players currently ranked in the top 12 will finish there by week 16. At tight end, it’s a little better -  around 45%, or between five and seven players. Quarterback is even more stable, with seven and ten players.

Keep this in mind as you consider player rankings and dynasty value.

If you want to see more on this here's a thread I made this week:

yearly reminder Week1 is when we have the most false top 12 players in ranks

but more then you may think

At WR, for ex,

# fluctuates between 2-6 finishing in the top 12 who rank there in wk1

it's also the slowest to get over 50% (week 3, on AVG) pic.twitter.com/FgNt1WlOVG

— Peter Howard (@pahowdy) September 13, 2023

TLDR data

I made a table to create roster reports for each team in my free weekly fantasy database which I update every week. You can find it here. You can see this table and generate the reports for each team yourself if you like.

ARI: Zach Ertz is a streamer, Michael Wilson already heavily involved?

The three top options in Arizona so far are Marquise Brown, Wilson, and Ertz. All three accounted for 19.7% of the team's routes in a game where they threw 30 times.

Ertz was not only heavily involved relative to his lack of dynasty value, but also underperformed his volume in week one and should trend up in points per touch However, he won't continue to earn a target on 40% of his routes.

Rondale Moore was heavily involved overall, but he maintained his below-average aDot (2.7) and mostly worked in the slot (72% of snaps.) While his hybrid role persists, right now, so does his lack of fantasy upside.

ATL: Drake London and Kyle Pitts are looking rough, Bijan Robinson is the Dynasty RB1