June Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers
Dynasty ADP is an ever-changing construct, and each position has its own variance and nuance. Some trends, however, do hold typically similar. Younger players rise while older players fall, to an extent.
Here we will examine some notable changes in the ADP landscape for wide receivers.
Let’s dive in.
The chart above displays the most recent ADP for the wide receiver position in a single quarterback startup draft.
Receivers are the backbone of many dynasty teams and while their respective ADP may not fluctuate as wildly as other more scarce positions, they do have plenty of small movements to keep track of.
WIDE RECEIVERS: RISERS
Tyreek Hill, MIA WR8 (+6.67)
The timing of the mock drafts and ADP data and the most recent news surrounding Hill may lead to a coming suppression of his draft position.
Hill was recently mentioned in the news in a potential assault case at a marina in Florida. While the alleged victim has stated he has no wishes to press charges, that does not mean that the NFL will not take some kind of disciplinary action. This is an evolving current case. That developing storyline may impact next month’s ADP, but it is still worth talking about the rise that existed prior.
Hill went from WR14 to WR8 in just a month. He bumped up a few spots with Tua Tagovailoa reportedly healthy and in line to lead his team.
Through the first four weeks of the 2022 season, Hill was the WR3 in PPR scoring formats. Looking to pick up where he left off and assuming no legal repercussions occur, Hill is in line to resume his electric role as a high-end wide receiver.
Treylon Burks, TEN WR23 (+11.34)
Burks was drafted with big shoes to fill as the cost of his pick was sending AJ Brown (and his new contract) to the Eagles. Between acclimation to the NFL and health, he did not shine as brightly as the trade and subsequent draft capital would have hoped.
As it stands, Burks should be the de facto WR1 in Tennessee’s passing offense and with at least one more season of Ryan Tannehill at the helm.
Burks has been the recipient of some praise out of minicamp. At just 23 years old, he has both time and a season of experience under his belt.
Elijah Moore, CLE WR44 (+13.34)
Thus far, Moore’s NFL career has been a roller coaster. After posting 43-538-5 in his rookie campaign with the New York Jets, he found himself in the dog house and an afterthought in a quarterback carousel of mediocrity for his sophomore season.
Moore landed in Cleveland with a new opportunity and for a team that has a potential opening for the WR2 spot.
Some in the dynasty community had expectations for Moore to break out last season. He now finds himself in a new situation and his ADP has had a small bounce-back, going from 107.17 last month to 93.83 for this month.
Those who held onto him remain hopeful he settles into a WR4/flex play or better for the upcoming season.
OTHER NOTABLE RISERS:
- Marquise Brown, ARI WR26 (+14)
- He maintained a healthy target share last season when healthy. DeAndre Hopkins is now gone. There are still some concerns about quarterback play until Kyler Murray returns from injury.
- Michael Thomas, NO WR56 (+31.66)
- He is H=healthy for the moment and showed some juice when he was on the field last season with three scores over as many games.
WIDE RECEIVERS: FALLERS
Jalin Hyatt, NYG WR62 (-21.34)
If only the Giants had a slot receiver, or six. Yes, the Giants have a type, but Hyatt does have field-stretching ability to add some flavor to the offense. However, early reports have been less than stellar with him reportedly operating primarily with the third-team offense. While it is too early to write him off, it is not too early to see him take a hit in ADP.
Jameson Williams, DET WR40 (-9)
For those who felt strongly that Williams could have been one of the better wide receivers of the 2022 class, the wait continues. He will begin the season with a six-game suspension. While not a drastic move down, the promising young receiver is taking the long road to command meaningful snaps.
Courtland Sutton, DEN WR50 (-10.5)
In their first full season with Russell Wilson, Sutton out-targeted Jerry Jeudy. However, Jeudy finished with more receiving yards, a higher yards-per-reception average, and three times as many touchdowns.
There were off-season rumors of a potential trade that never materialized.
Heading into 2023, the consensus seems to be arrows pointing up for Jeudy and down for Sutton. Current managers should hold. Startup managers may view his declining ADP as a low-risk, medium-return investment.
OTHER NOTABLE FALLERS
- Jonathan Mingo, CAR WR48 (-16.34)
- Mingo flirted with some hype after being selected 39th overall in this year’s draft. His ADP is settling now and will most likely remain in this range until training camp gets fully underway and more news comes out, which could affect it one way or the other.
- DJ Chark, CAR WR70 (-20.33)
- Doubling up on Panthers wide receivers was not intentional. However, seeing three of their receivers slipping in ADP is noteworthy. (Adam Thielen also showed a -5.83 movement.) The history of rookie quarterbacks and how they affect the receiving core speaks for itself. (For the most recent reference, check Diontae Johnson’s production last season.) Bryce Young will probably struggle, as most rookie quarterbacks do, in his first season. The negative impact on his receiving core can sometimes create unique buy-now situations.
DISCUSSION
Wide receivers remain a core foundational piece of successful dynasty teams. Savvy managers should be tracking both startup ADP and receiver values to help establish when the proper time to buy, sell, or hold becomes noticeable.
The position is deeper than others in fantasy football, creating more options to utilize high-upside players at the right cost of acquisition to minimize some risk.
- August Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - August 27, 2024
- July Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers - July 31, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Riser, Faller and Longshot Predictions: Houston Texans - July 14, 2024
