2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Aidan O’Connell

The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.

SITUATION

Name: Aidan O’Connell

Position: Quarterback

Pro Team: Las Vegas Raiders

College Team: Purdue Boilermakers

Draft Status: Round four, 135th overall

Aidan O’Connell was an early day-three draft pick by the Raiders out of Purdue. O’Connell spent nearly a lifetime in West Lafayette, Indiana, turned 24, and got married before the beginning of his senior season for the Boilermakers. As a former walk-on, he waited his turn before ultimately bursting onto the scene in 2021. Over his two years as a starter, O’Connell threw for 7,202 yards, 50 touchdowns, won 17 games, and led the Boilermakers to a Big 10 championship game berth.

In April, O’Connell was selected with the final pick of the fourth round by the Raiders and now enters into an interesting situation in Las Vegas. The Raiders are in a bit of a transition period after moving on from long-time starter Derek Carr this offseason and bringing in Jimmy Garoppolo. Let’s take a deep dive into O’Connell and see whether he’s worth rostering in dynasty.

TALENT

Aidan O’Connell Combine Results:

Height: 6’3’’

Weight: 213 lbs

Arm: 32 ¼”

Hand: 9 ¾”

40-yard dash: Did not participate

10-yard split: Did not participate

Vertical Jump: Did not particpate

Broad Jump: Did not participate

O’Connell is a prototypical pocket passer. He possesses great accuracy, timing, and the ability to read defenses all in a pro-style system. His big drawback is his complete lack of athleticism. In 2023 having the ability to create plays with your legs is paramount for a QB in fantasy football, and that is not O’Connell’s game. During his senior season, O’Connell only scrambled 11 times for 46 total yards; he’s constantly looking to hang in the pocket and throw the ball downfield rather than escape and run.

While he doesn’t bring much in the running game, O’Connell is lethal throwing the ball all over the field. He is pin-point in his accuracy and can complete throws to all parts of the field. He’s also shown the ability to take over a game with his arm and has thrown for over 400 yards six different times in his college career.

Courtesy of RAS.

OPPORTUNITY

Courtesy of 4for4 Depth Charts.

The Las Vegas QB depth chart is why I’m so intrigued by Aidan O’Connell, who definitely should be second on this list. Chase Garbers is an undrafted free agent who will probably be on the practice squad all year, and no competent NFL franchise would ever trot out 37-year-old Brian Hoyer to start under center.

The reason this depth chart intrigues me is the uncertainty surrounding Jimmy Garoppolo’s medicals. I’m not the biggest fan of Mike Florio and his obsession with NFL conspiracy theories, but his report on the Garoppolo injury and contract was eye-opening. While the ability to cut a player free of charge who cannot pass a physical is not a novel provision in NFL contracts, the growing concern about Garoppolo’s health is a thing of note. There are discussions that Garoppolo has still yet to pass a physical as of July 1st, and the idea of the Raiders cutting him is becoming more real by the day.

The Raiders are already at a bit of a crossroads regarding the future of the franchise; if they cut Garoppolo, it might be time to hit the hard reset button and give their young QB, Aidan O’Connell, a shot. However, even if Garoppolo isn’t cut, he hasn’t been particularly successful even with the help of the best offensive play caller in the NFL, Kyle Shannahan. There’s also a chance that O’Connell just straight-up beats him for the QB1 job.

RISK

Courtesy of Sports Reference.

The clear risk with O’Connell is his complete lack of rushing upside. He will never be a QB1 in fantasy football because of this. Even the great pocket passers in the NFL today, like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Dak Prescott, provide some scrambling. O’Connell is much closer to Jared Goff with his inability to make an impact in that way.

The other obvious risk is if Garoppolo’s injury rehabs correctly, and he starts Week 1 for the Raiders. While there is a possibility that O’Connell is better than him, the Raiders could simply be forced to start Garoppolo due to the $45 million they’ve guaranteed him.

MARKET

Courtesy of DLF’s June Rookie ADP.

The reason I’m so intrigued by O’Connell’s situation is that he’s basically free in rookie drafts going as the QB9 and 80th overall. He’s either going in the 7th round of the deepest dynasty league known to man, or he’s available on the waiver wire for a couple of FAAB. That is a small price to pay when the potential outcome is a Week 1 rookie starting QB.

Is it likely to happen? Probably not. But I’m not suggesting you draft him in the 2nd round of your rookie draft. Look for him in the 5th and 6th rounds, or prioritize him on the waiver wire. Then he can sit on your taxi squad and see whether or not he can beat out Garoppolo, which isn’t exactly the most difficult task in the NFL.

2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Aidan O’Connell