Dynasty Decision: Nick Chubb
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset is essentially worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to go on defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Nick Chubb, RB CLE
Since he entered the league, Chubb has been one of the best natural rushers in the NFL. However, primarily because of his lack of usage in the receiving game, he has never been a true fantasy superstar and has instead been a solid and reliable back-end RB1. However, Kareem Hunt has left Cleveland, creating a gap that could lead to Chubb being utilized in a complete three-down role. If that happens, it could lead to a significant uptick in his fantasy production.
So, should you be buying or selling him in dynasty?
Previous Performance
As a rookie, he was eased into the NFL, splitting carries with Carlos Hyde and losing third-down work to Duke Johnson. However, it was only after Hyde was traded away following the week six game that we got to see precisely what Chubb could be. He dominated on the ground and has barely looked up since. He has had five consecutive seasons where he has averaged over five yards per carry, clearing 1,000 yards every season since that rookie year.
For fantasy, he has been the epitome of consistency. Four consecutive top 12 seasons is a remarkable achievement. However, he has yet to break into the top five for a season. Throughout his career, Chubb has been a player who won’t lose you a week but may not have that incredible boom performance that will singlehandedly win you the week. Last season, he had eight top twelve weeks but only two inside the top six.
Situation and Usage
In terms of rushing, there are few concerns about Chubb. He is an elite runner rushing behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in an inventive scheme that utilizes him to his fullest. The primary question is about his usage in the passing game. That one question is holding him back from being a superstar for fantasy.
Last year, the Browns were slightly below average, targeting running backs on only 17.4% of dropbacks. That was enough for 88 targets to the position. However, Chubb only saw 37 targets (42% of RB targets) because of how they distributed the work. Kareem Hunt saw the majority at the position with 44 targets. As mentioned earlier, Hunt will be plying his trade on a different team this season, which raises some hope that Chubb may carve out some additional usage in the receiving game.
The below table shows every game of Chubb’s career Since Hunt signed in Cleveland. It is broken down to highlight games where he has shared the field with Hunt and games he has played without Hunt. As you can see, there is a difference in overall fantasy production to the tune of 2.5 points per game. That production comes from a slightly improved rushing production but is buoyed mainly by the extra target per game he is seeing. The difference from 1.9 targets per game to 2.9 may seem insignificant. However, over the course of the season, if you compare to 2022 numbers, that takes Chubb from 40th in targets to 22nd. That small amount of extra receiving work could help propel Chubb into that elite fantasy category he has flirted with throughout his career.
Injuries
The running back position is very susceptible to injuries, given the pounding they take on a play-to-play basis. Despite that, Chubb has been remarkably healthy. Through his five-year career, he missed only five games, three for an MCL sprain in 2020 and two for a calf strain in 2021. That is an unbelievable stretch of health, given his workload. As he ages, injuries could catch up to him, but there is nothing long-lasting that you should be a cause for concern in the future.
Contract
Given the recent news around running back contracts and their overall value, Chubb will be a fascinating case study over the next 12 months. While he has two years remaining on his extension, the 2024 part of his contract may not be straightforward. He is currently due to make $16.2m against the cap, although only $4m is guaranteed. The Browns could save $12.2m against the cap by moving on from him. The Browns are projected to be $83 million over the 2024 cap, so they will need to make some moves to get under the cap by the start of the season.
There are two ways to look at this. The first is to say the Browns need space, so Chubb is likely to be a cap casualty at the end of the season. In my eyes, the second and more realistic situation is that the Browns will restructure and extend him to free up cap space in 2024 but also retain their superstar back. If that happens, it will be fascinating to see what the numbers look like, given the depressed market of veteran backs currently.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB10 in July ADP and 33rd overall. The trade analyzer has him worth a random first-round pick and two second-rounders in a 1QB league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Chubb is a fascinating case study because if you’re looking for a rock-steady, stable running back, you can pencil in back-end RB1 production with the upside potential should he see more receiving work. You will be hard-pressed to find a better option than Chubb. His cost is also slightly reduced compared to other players in a similar production bracket, such as Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley.
If you’re a contender looking for a running back who could put your team over the top and win a title, Chubb may be the best option in terms of return on investment. Because of the lack of perceived upside, he is cheaper than the other backs mentioned. However, as I mentioned earlier if he can carve out more work in the receiving game, he has a much higher ceiling than expected.
There is inherently some risk in acquiring a veteran running back, and I am usually part of a team that is always selling running backs. However, it feels like Chubb is underpriced, given his slightly dull rock-steady production, while people traditionally chase sexier high-upside options.
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