2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Tank Bigsby
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Tank Bigsby
Position: running back
Pro Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
College Team: Auburn
Draft Status: Round three, 88th overall
Tank Bigsby came onto the scene at Auburn hot, winning SEC Freshman of the Year in 2020, and many thought big things were coming for him. The Auburn offense was a mess both in 2021 and 2022. There was no consistent passing game, and blocking was sometimes abysmal. Even with all of that, he still rushed for over 2,000 yards and 20 rushing touchdowns in his last two seasons. Bigsby is thought of as a power back, but he has some wiggle and has a good burst through the line, even though he doesn’t have elite speed. One of the things I saw on film was his amazing vision and his strength to constantly fight through arm tackles. He could provide the Jaguars with a steal and give them a great one-two punch at running back.
Talent
Tank Bigsby Combine Results:
Height: 6’ 0”
Weight: 210 lbs
Arm: 32
Hand: 9 1/2
40-Yard Dash: 4.56 seconds
10-Yard Split: 1.54 seconds
Vertical Jump: 32.5”
Broad Jump: 9’ 11”
Bigbsy did not test great compared to other running backs. He was only above the 70th percentile in one category, arm length. He is not slow by any means but did not wow you with any of the running at the combine. Bigsby is a player that might not have stood out in the combine, but when watching the tape, you see what a great player he could be at times. Bigsby may not be elite at any one trait, but he is very good at many of them.
OPPORTUNITY
Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart:
I was surprised that the Jaguars selected Bigsby in the third round, but it does make sense. Travis Etienne had a great season but is coming off an injury in his rookie year. Also, it seems usage is more like that of Alvin Kamara. Etienne averaged a little under 13 carries a game and only had five games where he had more than 15 attempts. Doug Pederson has always liked to spread carries among multiple running backs, so I could see a 60/40 split between the two. One thing the Jaguars struggled with last year was short yardage; that is where Bigsby could come in big with his size and strength. Speaking of Kamara, I could see this backfield being very much like the Kamara and Mark Ingram tandem for the Saints.
RISK
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
I think the biggest risk for Bigsby is there are not enough touches to go around for all the weapons on the offense. With the addition of Calvin Ridley, the offense may be even more pass-happy than last year, where they were ninth in the NFL in attempts per game. Even if they stay with the same run/pass ratio, there may not be enough for Bigsby to fantasy relevant. Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne combine for 17 carries a game, which would leave only eight for the rest of the team based on their rush attempts per game from last season. You would be banking on Bigsby getting all the goal-line carries to get the fantasy production needed to put him in your lineup.
MARKET
Data Courtesy of Rookie MFL ADP on DLF.
Bigsby is going as RB8 based on the latest data at My Fantasy League (MFL) and the 25th overall. I think this is too low for him. I would take him as RB4 behind Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Kendre Miller. I know Etienne ahead of him scares people off, but most teams have a two-back system now. It limits his ceiling, but Roschon Johnson, Zach Charbonnet, and Tyjae Spears all have similar situations with running backs ahead of them on the depth chart.
Data Courtesy of DLF Trade Analyzer.
Bigsby is currently going as RB 38 at KeepTradeCut and is 19 spots behind fellow rookie Zach Charbonnet. They are both in similar situations, but the Jaguars are a more explosive offense. I would also say that Kenneth Walker is more able to handle 15 + carries a game.
From above, you can see that Bigsby is going for a mid to late second-round pick. I think that is fair, seeing we do not know how exactly the Jaguars plan to use him with Etienne. As for the suggested players above, I would be fine trading Brian Robinson, David Montgomery, and even JuJu Smith-Schuster for Bigsby. He has better potential than the two backs and is on the younger side compared to Schuster.
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