2023 Dynasty Division Outlook: NFC North

Christian Watson

Rob Willette Posted On June 17, 2023

This year, we’re bringing you a new series covering each NFL division’s dynasty fantasy football outlook. We’ll bring you an overview of each team, highlight the best and worst positional groups, and make some cool predictions for the division as a whole. Let’s jump into it!

NFC NORTH OUTLOOK:

Chicago Bears

They are not quite there yet, but the Chicago Bears are at least much more interesting than they were at this juncture last summer. Two years of re-tooling the entire roster have put the Bears in position to be a somewhat fantasy-friendly offense.

Justin Fields did his best in 2022. He posted the second-highest single-season rushing total for quarterbacks in league history, piling up 1,143 yards as his legs were often the only method Chicago had of moving the football. His point-per-game totals put him in the top five in many fantasy formats, and he was a pleasant surprise in a year in which many quarterbacks faced unusual struggles.

The Bears have done a credible job of building around Fields. They targeted D.J. Moore in the deal with Carolina, which saw them move out of the first overall pick and bolster their offensive line with tackle Darnell Wright in Round 1. Improvements in the passing game could actually hurt Fields from a fantasy standpoint, as he may be less inclined to dart from the pocket and post monster rushing numbers. Of course, improvement overall would cement Fields as the man in Chicago and add to his already significant fantasy value.

Few position groups have the potential to be a fantasy nightmare quite like Chicago’s backfield. Khalil Herbert has flashed explosive skills in relief of David Montgomery the past two seasons, though he has never been thrust into a significant role long-term. The Bears added reliable two-down grinder D’Onta Foreman and the versatile Roschon Johnson in Round 4. Both in 2023 and the long-term, there are significant question marks as to who is the man here, with Herbert holding the highest dynasty value at RB33 per DLF’s one quarterback ranks.

D.J. Moore adds a legitimate number one to the mix in Chicago. While he may not ascend to be one of the league’s elites, Moore is an excellent weapon who should continue to roll up 1,000-yard seasons in Chicago. The trade for Chase Claypool was ill-advised, but you can at least dream of him returning to his rookie-year form in some aspects. Even with a 1,000-yard season under his belt in 2021, it feels as though Darnell Mooney is best utilized as a complementary weapon within an offense. With Moore and Claypool in town, Mooney is merely receiver depth.

Cole Kmet looks like a capable NFL tight end, but seeing a path to fantasy excellence is tough. The Bears added Robert Tonyan to compete within the tight end room and now have the receiver depth to avoid funneling targets to Kmet. This tight end group is underwhelming both now and in the long term.

DETROIT LIONS

One of the darling teams in the NFL entering 2023 – and for a good reason – the Detroit Lions are flush with interesting pieces.

Jared Goff is what he is at this point, but he can deliver the football to his playmakers. Goff finished sixth in the NFL in passing yards in 2022 and has shown an ability to produce high-end fantasy receivers. The Lions have refused to commit to him long-term, and the addition of Hendon Hooker indicates Detroit is keeping its options open, but at least for the short-term, Goff has value as a QB2 as long as you can weather the down games.

Despite featuring a fairly productive tandem in Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift, the Lions completely revamped their backfield. They targeted David Montgomery in free agency and lined up their Swift replacement by aggressively drafting Jahmyr Gibbs at 12^th overall. Gibbs is the man to invest in long-term, obviously; he has high-end receiving skills and big-play ability and was made an integral part of the Detroit offense from the moment he was drafted. Montgomery, however, could prove once again to be the boring value who proves a fantasy asset. Jamaal Williams – a lesser player, in my opinion – produced big numbers within this offense. Montgomery could provide sneaky value during his tenure in Detroit.

Amon-Ra St. Brown quickly put concerns he benefited from a shallow target tree to rest in 2022. Even with more weapons in the passing game, St. Brown vacuumed up targets – 146 to be exact – en route to another fantastic season. There is no reason to doubt the former fourth-rounder at this point. He is an elite fantasy asset. Beyond him, the Lions are banking on Jameson Williams, though a gambling suspension will once again lead to him getting a late start on the season. Beyond those two, Detroit has loaded up on players with NFL value, yet no significant fantasy value in Marvin Jones, Josh Reynolds, and Kalif Raymond. The good news is this should be a very focused offense; St. Brown should once again be near the top of the league in targets.

Expected to be in the tight end market this off-season, the Lions invested an early second-round pick in Iowa’s Sam LaPorta. While rookie tight ends seldom make an impact, LaPorta’s long-term prospects look excellent, and the situation could not be cozier. Neither Brock Wright nor James Mitchell figure to be more than part-time players in this offense. LaPorta could establish a role early.

GREEN BAY PACKERS

For the first time since, I believe, the Eisenhower Administration, the Green Bay Packers have a new quarterback. Jordan Love takes over after three years of playing apprentice to Aaron Rodgers. The situation is serviceable. We believe Matt LaFleur is a good offensive mind. The Packers have finally added to their weaponry over the past two years, and the offensive line has been annually solid. Love, of course, is still a complete unknown. There is, however, a reason to believe Love can enter as a viable QB2 in 2023 with a chance to cement himself as Green Bay’s quarterback of the future.

The Packers have one of the more stable backfields in the NFL. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have been an effective tandem, with Jones, in particular, showing high-end potential when the offense is humming. Jones is entering his age-29 season, and the offense figures to evolve over the next few seasons. He is a good addition for a contender as he is a likely candidate to put together a strong 2022, though there are significant long-term concerns. A.J. Dillon figures to run as Jones’ compliment once again in 2023 before becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2024. Dillon has proven he can play, though we have little evidence he can thrive in a full-time role. The good news for Dillon is his non-existent receiving profile in college has not been a major issue, offering hope Dillon can be a short-term starter either in Green Bay or elsewhere.

While he is certainly no Davante Adams, Christian Watson grew throughout his rookie season and looks like he could be a big play threat for the transitioning Green Bay offense. His game may always offer a boom and bust aspect – possibly preventing him from joining the top tiers of dynasty receivers – but Watson demonstrated immense playmaking ability in 2022 and is by far the most valuable Green Bay pass-catcher. Behind him, only Jayden Reed has significant draft capital attached to his name. Despite his status as a second-round pick, fantasy managers are low on Reed, as he checks in at WR11 and the 24^th-overall ranked player in DLF’s rookie rankings. Reed could easily be the number two in this offense before long, and he could prove to be a value in rookie drafts before long.

Green Bay is breaking in two rookie tight ends: Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. Musgrave is an exciting prospect, a premier athlete whose stock was impacted by injury issues at Oregon State. Tucker Kraft is a great prospect in his own right, a prospect who was likely pushed down a round due to the depth of the class. Both could emerge as fantasy impact players; of course, they could also cannibalize looks from each other, and it is hard to see them thriving in year one.

Minnesota Vikings

You do not get any surprises with Kirk Cousins. What you see is what you get. He is annually a solid QB2—no frills, no fuss. Just enjoy the ride.

The Dalvin Cook era is over in Minnesota, opening a pathway for Alexander Mattison to secure the lead role. Mattison has thrived as a fill-in for Cook, though the sample is small, and as tempting as it is, you cannot simply extrapolate numbers over an entire season. I am skeptical Mattison can truly thrive as the top option and view him as a sell high as people ride the wave of his new opportunity. The coaching staff has hyped up Ty Chandler even though his only NFL touches came in a meaningless Week 18 game. Kene Nwangwu has dynamic skills, but his value is in the return game. It is likely the long-term starter in Minnesota is not currently on the roster.

There is no need to spill much ink on Justin Jefferson. He was elite from day one and is still supremely young. He is one of dynasty’s top players. Behind him, first-round selection Jordan Addison immediately steps in as a starter. He also slots in as the second most valuable dynasty asset on this team. Given the relatively strong situation and a clear path to targets, it would not be surprising if he flirted with Rookie of the Year honors. K.J. Osborn has developed into a quality NFL receiver but is best suited as a third receiver. If you want to take a swing on a deep sleeper very late in drafts, Jalen Nailor may be your best option.

The Vikings landed T.J. Hockenson in a midseason trade with the Lions, and it could not have worked better. Hockenson immediately became the second target in the passing game, ascending from middling TE1 to the high-end producer in no time. Hockenson’s long-term future is not yet known, though all indications seem to point to him and Minnesota working out an extension. The Vikings prioritized Josh Oliver in free agency. While he is best known as a blocker, the team believes he can contribute as a receiver. He is not, however, a dynasty option outside the deepest of leagues.

POSITIONAL GROUP RANKINGS

QUARTERBACKS:

Bears: B
Vikings: B-
Lions: C
Packers: C-

For the first time in forever, the Packers do not top this list. Fields may not be the best quarterback in the division right now, but his upside buries the competition. Cousins is solid but entering the final year of his deal and entering his age-35 season. Goff can run and hot and epitomizes the NFL’s middle class at quarterback. Jordan Love is the ultimate wild card; the Packers’ grade could go up or down significantly by the next off-season.

RUNNING BACKS:

Packers: A-
Lions: B
Bears: C+
Vikings: D+

The Packers have two runners who start and complement each other well. The 2024 forecast is murky for both, but they are an excellent duo. The Lions have a quality all-around back in David Montgomery and a home run hitter in Jahmyr Gibbs. This figures to be a productive duo. The Bears have depth though no standouts, yet each back should offer enough to make this a capable backfield. The Vikings are inexperienced and thin. It is hard to see a premier player emerging from this group.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Vikings: A
Lions: B
Bears: C+
Packers: D+

Jefferson’s presence alone places the Vikings on top, and they have added a premier prospect in Addison. The Lions have a potentially dynamic duo with St. Brown and Williams, though Williams still has plenty to prove on the field. The Bears have done a nice job improving their receiving room, and it should operate as an average or slightly above-average grouping. The Packers need Christian Watson to take the next step while their other young receivers develop. Not far-fetched, but this is still a limited grouping as we sit here today.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

Vikings: B+
Packers: B-
Lions: C-
Bears: C-

Hockenson is the most established tight end in the division and hit a new level in Minneapolis. The Packers double-dipped in the draft, and while neither player has done anything at the NFL level, their potential alone makes this an intriguing group. Sam LaPorta will need to do the heavy lifting for Detroit. Ryan Pace loved to stockpile tight ends, yet somehow the Bears do not have an elite tight end room. Cole Kmet and Robert Tonyan should be a capable duo, however.

DIVISIONAL PREDICTIONS:

MVP: Justin Jefferson, WR MIN

Boring, but the right choice. Jefferson’s track record is bulletproof, and the Vikings want to move the football through the air. Even with more target competition, Jefferson should post another monster season.

LVP: Khalil Herbert, RB CHI

I do not dislike Herbert, the player. I just feel his ADP will be too rich for my liking. I am inclined to take the cheapest player in this backfield, if any.

MOST IMPROVED: Jordan Love, QB GB

I am intrigued by what Love can do in Green Bay. He was a prospect who needed time, and the Packers have provided him with a solid foundation in support. It is obviously easy to improve on not playing, but I expect Love to acquit himself fairly well and become a well-respected dynasty quarterback.

BIGGEST STEAL: Christian Watson, WR GB

Watson obviously ran hot on touchdowns in 2022, but fantasy managers are savvy enough to bake it into ADP. The Packers desperately need Watson to be the man they thought he would be when they moved up for him in 2022, and he makes for a great value play on the WR2/WR3 fringe.

BIGGEST BUST: Alexander Mattison, RB MIN

I am not sold on Mattison as a clear lead back and feel the Vikings may work in their other backs more than people expect. Mattison has jumped into the RB2 range, but I do not buy him as a difference-maker in 2023 or beyond.