2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Kayshon Boutte
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Kayshon Boutte
Position: Wide Receiver
Pro Team: New England Patriots
College Team: LSU
Draft Status: Round Six, Pick 187
I still can’t believe that Boutte fell to the sixth round of the NFL Draft, as he was a blue-chip prospect early in his LSU career. However, he lands in an interesting situation in New England, which has a weak skill position depth chart. They signed Juju Smith-Schuster to be their top wide receiver in free agency, and they also added Mike Gesicki as a receiving tight end.
However, beyond Smith-Schuster, they have little else at wide receiver. 2022 second-rounder Tyquan Thornton did nothing as a rookie, and veterans DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne don’t inspire any confidence. Additionally, neither Gesicki nor Hunter Henry will be a target hog at tight end, and I doubt they push wide receivers for playing time. Therefore, Boutte should be able to compete with Parker, Bourne, and Thornton for outside wide receiver snaps. It’s not the worst situation, but the Patriots are also a below-average offense, so it’s not the best situation either.
TALENT
Kayshon Boutte Combine Results:
Height: 5’ 11’’
Weight: 195 lbs
Arm: 31 ⅜’’
Hand: 9 ½’’
40-Yard Dash: 4.5 seconds
10-Yard Split: 1.58 seconds
Vertical Jump: 29’’
Broad Jump: 9’ 10”
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.25 seconds
Undoubtedly, Boutte was a high-end producer early in his college career.
As a true freshman, he recorded similar statistics to Terrace Marshall, becoming an instant devy darling. In April 2021’s DLF Devy ADP, he was the sixth overall devy player, despite only having played one college season. He carried more devy value than any other wide receiver, including high-end prospects like Garrett Wilson, Drake London, Treylon Burks, and Chris Olave.
Unfortunately, the wheels came off after his 2020 breakout. First, he struggled with injuries in 2021, although he remained the top receiver on the team while he was healthy. Then in 2022, he seriously regressed on the field, falling to the second receiver on the team behind Malik Nabers and putting up fewer than 50 receiving yards per game. But there’s no doubt that Boutte has talent, and I don’t believe he forgot how to play wide receiver since 2020.
Despite that raw talent, Boutte continued to do himself no favors throughout the pre-draft process. His 4.5 40-yard dash wasn’t horrible, but it pales in comparison to the 4.3 times he claimed he would run. Additionally, he was one of the worst wide receivers in the jumping events, causing NFL teams to slide him down their boards. At this point, it’s a question of whether that 2020 performance is a mirage and whether it will translate against the superior defenders in the NFL.
OPPORTUNITY
As discussed in the situation section, Boutte has an opportunity to play on the Patriots, given the weak wide receiver depth chart. However, sixth-round picks sometimes don’t even make the NFL roster. He has a chance to prove his draft capital wrong, but that’s about it.
RISK
Chart courtesy of Sports Reference CFB.
As I write this article, a Sleeper alert appeared, discussing how Boutte isn’t even a lock to make the 53-man roster. While I disagree with that projection, it makes some sense. If the Patriots only keep five wide receivers, they might opt for fellow sixth-rounder Demario Douglas over Boutte as a backup in the slot. They don’t have a true slot backup to Smith-Schuster, and Douglas might fit their needs better.
Even if Boutte makes the team, he still has many risks in his profile. I won’t dive deep into it, but we’ve all heard the rumors surrounding his dismissal from LSU. Initially, he decided to stay at LSU for 2023 but changed his mind and declared for the NFL Draft. Essentially, it seemed like he wouldn’t be welcome back at LSU for the 2023 season, so he went to the NFL to avoid transferring. NFL rules prevent Boutte from being formally punished for any negative actions before he entered the league, but that doesn’t mean that teams can’t factor it into their decisions.
MARKET
I think some dynasty managers are simply selecting Boutte late in their rookie drafts because they recognize his name.
Chart courtesy of DLF MFL Rookie ADP.
I rank Boutte at WR14 in this rookie class, but a tier below even players like Tank Dell and Michael Wilson. Dell and Wilson went in the third round, and both fell into far superior opportunities on their respective depth charts. I wouldn’t consider Boutte until those players are off the board in a rookie draft.
Data Courtesy of DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer.
In DLF’s May superflex rookie ADP, Boutte carries even more value, coming in at WR12 and 31st overall. He’s ahead of both Dell and Wilson in that data but also ahead of Zach Evans, Deuce Vaughn, and Eric Gray. At that stage in rookie drafts, I’d always rather take a shot on a running back over a wide receiver, as they have more room to grow in value. Therefore, I can’t imagine having any Boutte shares in rookie drafts this year.
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