Dynasty Fantasy Football: Rookie ADP
This series explores DFL Ranks and ADP to find what we can learn from them and apply it to our dynasty leagues.
Since, by the time this article is published, the NFL draft will almost be here I thought we’d take the time to consider how useful ADP can be for rookies. If nothing else, it will give you something to bookmark and read in between rounds or maybe while waiting for a fantasy-relevant position to be drafted.
I usually like to use Superflex ADP but since the history of ADP is longer at 1QB I thought I’d switch over to that for this article. You can find Rookie ADP here and DLF Rookie Ranks here.
So, how well rookies have been drafted by DLF ADP since 2014? I have a history of DLF’s main, 1QB, ADP since 2014 and I went over it to see if there was anything we could learn.
ADP Hit Rates
Here is a table that shows the percentage of players who hit for a top 12 season in PPR between 2014 and 2021. The rounds are defined as if it rookie ADP were from a 12-team league. So round one consists of the first 12 rookies taken off the board in August of that year, round two is the 13th to 24th rookie taken, and so on.
When looking at DLF ADP very few quarterbacks are taken in the first 12 picks. When they are, they have hit for at least 1 top-12 season.
Running backs hit consistently more often than the wide receiver in the first four rounds of a “rookie draft.”
The tight end position is also seldom drafted early in rookie ADP but the hit rates through the first two rounds of a rookie draft are very impressive. But remember a top 12 season is not the same at this position and is perhaps better compared to a top 24 season at running back and wide receiver. When we zoom out to a top 24-level season tight end still “beats” both running back and wide receiver, but it is a lot closer.
Once again, running back is consistently more accurate in terms of a likely positive fantasy outcome than the wide receiver position in each round.
One other note is that hit rates for running back and wide receiver dropped by half in round two. This should tell us to consider tight ends and quarterbacks more heavily by at least the third round.
However, these averages don’t tell the whole story. Let’s look at hit rates by position in each class. (Remember the 2021 class is still very much in its “breakout arch”, as most top 12 and top five breakouts don’t occur till at least a player’s third year in the NFL.)
Notice that individual classes are very different in terms of accuracy. However, the broad-level takeaways are still true.
Running backs hit at a higher rate than the wide receivers position, but they are also a lot more consistent.
We draft more wide receivers in the first round, but the position has hit at a lower rate more often. Running back has only had one really poor year, 2020, and some minor dips in 2018 and 2021.
It’s also notable that when ADP shifts heavily to the running back position – like in 2017 when seven of the first eight picks were running backs – the hit rates improve, instead of decline. ADP seems to give us a very good sense of a class, and which position fantasy value is more centered around.
We have also been on a hot streak at wide receiver lately. Combined with a solid 40% hit rate since 2018, we have “not missed” with the first wide receiver taken since 2017. This could be a product of improvement in our draft process.
However, notably, we are still more likely to draft the best running back first overall at that position than the best wide receiver. For example, while Drake London didn’t “miss” last year, Chris Olave is the biggest riser from that class in ADP. And in 2018, while DJ Moore has been excellent, Calvin Ridley broke out to a higher level with at least one top-12 PPR finish.
I broke these trends down further recently if you are interested:
Now, let’s consider the 2023 class.
2023 Rookie ADP and Ranks
There is a significant four-player tier in this class. There is no disagreement in ADP or DLF Ranks overall and this is even more acute within the first three picks – as there is still almost no disagreement within the ten different ADP mocks or the eight different DLF rankers up to that point.
However, that’s not what sticks out to me the most this year.
Since 2014 there have been only two quarterbacks taken in the first 12 rookies of ADP: Kyler Murray in 2019, and Trevor Lawrence in 2021. While only Lawrence is being drafted in the top-12 right now Murray finished in the top-12 in each of his first three seasons and was top 12 in PPG in 2022. Still, both were drafted outside the first ten rookies in their respective rookie classes.
This year current DLF ADP has two quarterbacks inside the top 10 picks and three inside the top 14. What’s more, DLF rankers, if anything, are even more interested.
We should expect a lot to change with the NFL draft, but it seems that ADP suggesting to us that the crux of this year’s rookie class is the quarterback position. But also, the tight end position.
The running back position is being faded behind quarterbacks but also the tight end one this year. ADP quickly catches up, however, drafting four running backs in the first six picks of the second round.
In short, ADP suggests fading toward the wide receiver position – a scary proposition considering the history – and even valuing quarterbacks and tight ends above running backs this year in general. It’ll be interesting to see if the NFL landing spots have any effect on this.
While there is general disagreement across the 2023 rookie class, there is only one player DLF Ranks would consider in an entirely separate round prospect from ADP, Marvin Mims.
I recommend checking out Bruce Matson’s prospect profile on Mims to get a better idea of what he (as a rookie ranker) and the other DLF rookie rankers like about him. It’s safe to say Mims should be a target in our rookie drafts this year.
Here is a table of the other player’s DLF ranker’s are significantly higher on compared to current ADP.
Anyway, that’s about all I have this week. Thanks again for checking out this article, and enjoy the NFL Draft coverage here on DLF. I’ll see you here again next week.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week One - September 14, 2024
- Post-Draft Rookie Rankings vs Redraft Rankings - May 22, 2024
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
