John Arrington: Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained

Welcome to another installment in our series of articles where DLF rankers not only explain their dynasty fantasy football rankings, but also include a number of the 2023 rookie draft pick selections so you can see how we each, individually, value those dynasty rookie picks in comparison to players as if it were a dynasty fantasy football startup draft.

Be sure to catch all of the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings Explained series.

DLF has always offered our readers multiple sets of dynasty fantasy football rankings from different experts to provide a broad view of player rankings. With many different strategies for building a successful dynasty team, no single set of rankings could possibly meet the needs of every coach. Instead, we’ve long subscribed to the idea of our experts providing their own individual rankings, ultimately giving our readers the opportunity to gravitate to a particular expert who closely matches their own style of ranking or, perhaps, instead choosing to use an average ranking across all experts. Valuation variability between players in the rankings can often be large but that variability can provide opportunity as well. Our DLF expert rankers should always be able to explain why they are higher, or lower, on a particular player.

While explaining our rankings will provide greater insight alone, we are also including a number of 2023 rookie draft selections interspersed with the players so you can get a better idea of how each of our rankers values those selections when compared to existing veteran players. As would be expected, you will find a great degree of variability in the valuation of these picks as well depending on the style of the ranker. Each draft class has its own quality and depth and, depending on how the ranker values that quality and depth, individual rookie selections will appear earlier or later on the list.

A note about the tables. The Rank column indicates this ranker’s personal rankings. The AVG column indicates the consensus rankings value at the time these rankings were created. The “+/-” column indicates how much higher or lower the ranker is to the consensus average.

Each week we will provide rankings for 120 players and 2023 rookie draft picks, alternating between 1QB and Superflex rankings. For a deeper list of rankings, please visit our consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings.

1 QB DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL RANKINGS: JOHN ARRINGTON

When I started making my own dynasty rankings a few years ago my main goal was to look at as many aspects of a player’s profile and come up with the complete picture. Different players score points in different ways, so I knew I couldn’t solely look at just a couple of inputs. Some players score more points from receptions, while others from touchdowns. Some are full-time players, while others play a small role in their offense. With that in mind, I created a system that looks at the most critical aspects of a player’s game and then gives an unbiased grade for each player. When it’s all said and done, fantasy points are the main goal of the system, and of my rankings, but that’s not the only factor that matters.

While I don’t care about age as much as the average dynasty manager, it is still a major factor in my rankings. Where I differ from many is the period of time I focus on. So much can change in a two-year span, that I don’t plan or project for much longer than that. If an older player showed no signs of decline in the previous season I see no reason to drastically drop them down the rankings, just like you won’t see me rocketing a player who had a mediocre season at age 21 up the board, either.

You may notice a pattern as we dive into these ranks, but I can assure you I do not hate running backs. We are in a weird time in the NFL, where a good majority of the best RBs are close to or even past the age thresholds we would normally consider “safe”. While I don’t let age dictate my rankings, I have started using “years of guaranteed money left” as an input in the system. While it may not be a perfect system, I believe it can help to get out a year early on a player, rather than being stuck holding the bag later on. With that said, let’s dive in!

Rankings: 1 - 24

I don’t need to tell you how valuable Justin Jefferson and Ja’marr Chase are, so it’s no surprise that they are one and two in the ranks here. “Player three” may be where it starts getting a little controversial but I believe that the 1.01, or Bijan Robinson by its other name, is the third most valuable player in a 1 QB startup. Going back to the contract talk, you have a young player who has proven to be very good to elite at everything and will have at least a four-year contract, with a fifth-year option.

Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave proved themselves to be top-end WRs last year, and both have received QB upgrades since then(assuming the Rodgers deal goes through). The grouping from Waddle to Metcalf is extremely close, so I really won’t argue with anyone that wants to sort that tier differently, but I do believe that DeVonta Smith has done enough and is in a good enough situation to warrant him being this high.

In my opinion, there are only two options at the 1.02 in a 1 QB league – Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jahmyr Gibbs. I lean JSN, but could be persuaded to switch to Gibbs with the right landing spot. Either way, 1.02 is a player that will be a difference-maker for your dynasty teams, for years to come.

All of the RBs in the 20-23 range have some sort of question mark, whether it be age, contract, or situation. Rounding out the top 24 I have 1.03, which is Jahmyr Gibbs, in my opinion. I’d be willing to move him up a little more, depending on landing spot.

Rankings: 25 - 48

Starting out, you’ll notice I’m much lower on Kenneth Walker than consensus. While I like the player, there were a lot of ups and downs to his rookie season, and he only produced three top-12 weeks all year. Next up, DJ Moore has moved up pretty substantially for me. Looking through his profile, you can see that just about everything is elite, but he may have the worst list of QBs that have thrown him a pass. While there are still question marks about Justin Fields’ throwing abilities, I believe that he is a step in the right direction for Moore, and am looking for a big season (and future seasons).

Around this point is when I’m willing to grab the 1.04 and 1.05, but landing spots could dictate how early I’m willing to invest. Travis Kelce has proven to be the biggest positional advantage in fantasy football and has shown very few if any signs of decline, so I’m still willing to take him here. Josh Jacobs was used as a workhorse last year but didn’t get the contract we were hoping for.

In my opinion, Amari Cooper has long been one of the most underrated WRs in the league. There was a lot in flux last season, but I’m expecting big things this year, for a player that is still somehow only 28 years old. JK Dobbins situation is up in the air, but he should be at full health, and if the goal is more passing, then he should be more involved in that aspect of the game, regardless of who is at QB.

Brandon Aiyuk took a step forward as the WR1 in SF last year, but it seems like everyone has kind of dismissed that, for some reason. Michael Pittman desperately needs a QB, and based on where they are picking in the draft, I don’t expect one that can help falling to them in the first round. Godwin has lived on volume for the past couple of years, so I worry about what will happen if the passing total comes down moving forward.

Rankings: 49 - 72

We have a lot more aging RBs and players without long-term contracts, in this range. With the 2023 rookie RB class being so talented and deep, I could see a lot of these players having competition after the draft.

Justin Herbert is an enigma. He has one of the strongest arms in the NFL, yet he sports one of the lowest ADOTs(average depth of target) in the league. Add in his WR’s propensities to get injured and I end up being lower on him than consensus. A lot of draft analysts expect Los Angeles to draft a high-end WR next week, so I could easily see myself pushing Herbert up the board if that happens. On the other end of the spectrum, I feel like Kyler Murray has been pushed down too far, after tearing his ACL. Yes, we can likely expect a slower start in 2023, but these are dynasty rankings, not redraft.

Treylon Burks, Deebo Samuel, and Kyle Pitts are three players in similar boats. All three have struggled with injuries and have an up-in-the-air QB situation. The draft could answer one of those questions for Burks, with a lot of analysts calling for Tennessee to move up in the draft for a QB. Unfortunately, we may not have an answer for Deebo until the preseason, but even then there will be a lot of possibilities. Pitts is likely stuck with at least one more year of Desmond Ridder, and that’s before even mentioning that Arthur Smith was using Pitts more as an In-line TE, rather than a receiver like we would like to see.

Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson are two players that have never been given a true workhorse role, by their teams. On top of that, both teams have shown interest in adding an early RB in the draft. We could easily see their value drop substantially, in just a handful of days!

DeAndre Hopkins showed that he still has plenty in the tank last year, and while he will likely be on a new team in 2023, I still expect him to command plenty of targets wherever he goes.

Rankings: 73 - 96

This section starts off with a group of young WRs that truly haven’t proven themselves yet. I feel like most of them have been pushed up solely because of their age. Christian Watson also has a pretty massive QB downgrade in the works.

Next, we have more aging RBs that will likely get some competition via the draft, and Mixon and Kamara could be facing legal trouble/suspensions.

After Mike Evans, Mike Williams, and Courtland Sutton have all proven to be too volatile lately(Evans was a stud for a very long time). Combine that with their age, and I’m out at cost.

Rankings: 97 - 120

David Montgomery and Dameon Pierce are not special talents and while the Lions might not add anyone else, I could easily see the Texans add more competition via the draft, with so little invested in that position.

Rashod Bateman technically has Tyler Huntley throwing him the ball right now, and has yet to put a full, healthy season together. Even if Lamar Jackson signs back with the Ravens, it’s a brand new offense for everyone, and the first time we will see Lamar in a new system.

I see almost no way that the Bills don’t invest heavily in WR, in the draft, so it makes me that much lower on Gabe Davis. If he somehow makes it through unscathed, he would move back up a little bit.

James Cook, Cam Akers, and Khalil Herbert are all RBs that have never been given a workhorse role, and could easily see competition added in the draft.

Finally, Elijah Moore is one of the most difficult rankings I’ve ever done. I loved him as a prospect, his year one confirmed my priors, and then he fell off the face of the planet last year. I worry that he may have an attitude problem, with how he handled everything in New York, and now he is in a new system, with a quarterback that was terrible in the handful of games he played last year. I almost hope that my ranking is wrong, but it’s so difficult for me to have confidence in picking him, unless it’s extremely cheap.

I may have been given this assignment at just about the worst time, because I have a plethora of NFL Draft narratives floating around in my head as I type this out. As you can see, I’m expecting some chaos when it comes to the RBs especially, and that makes them very difficult to rank. When in doubt, draft another position, at least until we get some clarity. I look forward to updating my ranks as soon as the draft is over, and hope that I can revisit this sometime later in the offseason. Until then, thank you for reading through all of this, and I would love to hear what you think!

This will be the last installment in this series…for now. Thanks for following along. You can find the entire series of Rankings Explained articles here.

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John Arrington

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

DynastyCoachA is an analytically based dynasty player that focuses on player analysis from college all the way through the NFL. He hosts the Monocle Dynasty, Devy Devotional, and Full Tilt Devy podcasts, when he isn't tweaking his rankings or creating a new dynasty tool.

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