Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues
As the Scouting Combine closes, we look toward free agency as the pillar event before the NFL Draft. Information is constantly changing and the dynasty values will move in lock-step with it. This series will focus on that market pulse by highlighting players at each spot. Here are four tight ends to watch before NFL Free Agency:
Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN – Buy
Greg Dulcich is TE12 in the latest ADP. Overvalued. Meanwhile, the incumbent coming into 2022 has been forgotten. It is clear that the Nathaniel Hackett experiment led to dysfunction all over the Denver roster and Albert O was one of the biggest casualties. He enters free agency after the 2023 season and is a prime candidate for a bigger role under a new regime.
The Move – The format must warrant being interested in tight ends in this range, but assuming it does (1.75 or more premium or start two TE), I would attempt to get Okwuegbunam for a fourth-round pick or in a swap with other players. I would consider paying a third-round pick in some circumstances but otherwise, he should be even cheaper.
Isaiah Likely, BAL – Sell
This one is extremely obvious. Not only has Likely been boosted to TE23 in the latest ADP, but his profile also does not point toward historic production higher than he posted as a rookie. The new Todd Monken offense will not look similar to Greg Roman. In addition, Likely sports a RAS score of 4.87, and historically, 95 percent of historic top-12 seasons were posted by players with a RAS score above six. The odds are very against this player.
The Move – Ultimately, I would sell for any second-round pick. I would pivot down to a lesser tight end if I also got a third-round pick. Capitalize on liquidating him during the time when many in dynasty are seeking out his services.
Stats courtesy of RAS Football.
Andrew Ogletree, IND – Add
This is an interesting one as Ogletree was impressive during minicamp and OTAs last year, to the point where he and Jelani Woods were discussed in the same light. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in the preseason and lost his entire rookie season. Due to the injury, many cut him off dynasty teams and he should be available in many leagues this off-season. He posted a 9.33 RAS score and hit the threshold on the 40-yard dash (81.9 percent of top 12 seasons posted a 40-time of 4.72 or under). Take the shot now.
The Move – The move is to add him in specific formats (28 or more roster spots) and do so in leagues with a meaningful premium (1.75 or higher or start two). There are others in the same boat but this is the type of player that you stash for free.
Courtesy of RAS Football.
Hunter Henry, NE – Hold
Henry currently checks in at TE36 and has been left for dead. It feels like he has been around forever, but this year will mark an entire season where he plays prior to turning 29 years old. The temptation will be to dump Henry where possible, but hold off. His sell value is minimal and this could put him more in the buy category, but ultimately, he is a player I want just enough exposure to and do not have the conviction to go buy even more.
The Move – Nothing much to say here. Henry is tied to a potentially efficient quarterback in Mac Jones who could revert back to the form of his 2021 rookie campaign. If this happens, the current price on Henry is a great bang for your buck. Do not dump just to make a random draft pick.
Conclusion – The TE market is really all the haves and the have-nots. The key is understanding which formats to prioritize stashes and what the threshold is to pivot up and down. Largely, there are no options to pivot up without massively paying up. Use the combine and historic TE data to your advantage and get deals done.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
As the Scouting Combine closes, we look toward free agency as the pillar event before the NFL Draft. Information is constantly changing and the dynasty values will move in lock-step with it. This series will focus on that market pulse by highlighting players at each spot. Here are four tight ends to watch before NFL Free Agency:
Albert Okwuegbunam, DEN – Buy
Greg Dulcich is TE12 in the latest ADP. Overvalued. Meanwhile, the incumbent coming into 2022 has been forgotten. It is clear that the Nathaniel Hackett experiment led to dysfunction all over the Denver roster and Albert O was one of the biggest casualties. He enters free agency after the 2023 season and is a prime candidate for a bigger role under a new regime.
The Move – The format must warrant being interested in tight ends in this range, but assuming it does (1.75 or more premium or start two TE), I would attempt to get Okwuegbunam for a fourth-round pick or in a swap with other players. I would consider paying a third-round pick in some circumstances but otherwise, he should be even cheaper.
Isaiah Likely, BAL – Sell
This one is extremely obvious. Not only has Likely been boosted to TE23 in the latest ADP, but his profile also does not point toward historic production higher than he posted as a rookie. The new Todd Monken offense will not look similar to Greg Roman. In addition, Likely sports a RAS score of 4.87, and historically, 95 percent of historic top-12 seasons were posted by players with a RAS score above six. The odds are very against this player.
The Move – Ultimately, I would sell for any second-round pick. I would pivot down to a lesser tight end if I also got a third-round pick. Capitalize on liquidating him during the time when many in dynasty are seeking out his services.
Stats courtesy of RAS Football.
Andrew Ogletree, IND – Add
This is an interesting one as Ogletree was impressive during minicamp and OTAs last year, to the point where he and Jelani Woods were discussed in the same light. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in the preseason and lost his entire rookie season. Due to the injury, many cut him off dynasty teams and he should be available in many leagues this off-season. He posted a 9.33 RAS score and hit the threshold on the 40-yard dash (81.9 percent of top 12 seasons posted a 40-time of 4.72 or under). Take the shot now.
The Move – The move is to add him in specific formats (28 or more roster spots) and do so in leagues with a meaningful premium (1.75 or higher or start two). There are others in the same boat but this is the type of player that you stash for free.
Courtesy of RAS Football.
Hunter Henry, NE – Hold
Henry currently checks in at TE36 and has been left for dead. It feels like he has been around forever, but this year will mark an entire season where he plays prior to turning 29 years old. The temptation will be to dump Henry where possible, but hold off. His sell value is minimal and this could put him more in the buy category, but ultimately, he is a player I want just enough exposure to and do not have the conviction to go buy even more.
The Move – Nothing much to say here. Henry is tied to a potentially efficient quarterback in Mac Jones who could revert back to the form of his 2021 rookie campaign. If this happens, the current price on Henry is a great bang for your buck. Do not dump just to make a random draft pick.
Conclusion – The TE market is really all the haves and the have-nots. The key is understanding which formats to prioritize stashes and what the threshold is to pivot up and down. Largely, there are no options to pivot up without massively paying up. Use the combine and historic TE data to your advantage and get deals done.
- Four Tight Ends to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 23, 2023
- Four Wide Receivers to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 16, 2023
- Four Running Backs to Buy, Sell, or Hold in Dynasty Leagues - August 9, 2023
