2023 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Prospect: Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Bijan Robinson, RB from Texas. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league.
Bijan Robinson has been highly touted since high school. He was one of the nation’s top recruits when he joined the Texas Longhorns. He was the nation’s top running back in college football last year when he won the Doak Walker Award. He’ll be selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, bucking the trend of running backs falling in drafts due to positional scarcity. Finally, after all of this hype, he will be the first pick in dynasty rookie drafts (except for some superflex leagues).
Because of all of that hype, this is arguably the most coveted first overall rookie pick in recent memory. Dynasty managers tanked to earn this pick, and those who didn’t are mortgaging their franchises to make trades for the pick.
The time has finally come for Robinson to make his NFL and fantasy football entrance. The hype has been out of this world – up there with the likes of Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott. When you dive into Robinson’s tape and measurables, you’ll see the hype is absolutely worth it!
THE STATS
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Robinson had an incredible career with the Texas Longhorns, starting right away with his freshman season. In the pandemic-shortened season, he set a school record, running for 8.2 yards per carry. He established himself on the national radar in Manhattan against Kansas State, where he ran the ball nine times for 172 yards (19.1 YPC) and three touchdowns. He also added three catches for 51 in the Longhorns’ victory.
His sophomore year could be looked at as a down year for Robinson, despite running for 1,127 yards and totaling 15 touchdowns. He finished sixth in the Big 12 in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns that season and earned first-team All-Big 12 honors.
He hit career highs in attempts, yards, touchdowns and receiving yards in his final year in Austin on his way to the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back. He finished 2022 sixth in all of college football with 1,580 rushing yards and fifth in rushing touchdowns with 18. He also earned a spot on the AP’s first-team All-American team. Robinson excelled at everything he was asked to do at Texas, and will likely be a first-round pick in the NFL Draft.
THE FILM
Do yourself a favor and set aside some time to watch some Robinson highlight reels. This game tape is from Texas’s win over Oklahoma last season. He took 22 carries for 130 yards and two touchdowns, while catching two balls for 15.
One of those catches really impressed me at the two-minute mark of the video. It’s third-down and six, Robinson is the dump-off option running a flat route in the backfield. Realizing the play is breaking down, Robinson waits for the defense to jump on him, then breaks down the sideline and makes an outstanding catch to convert.
Check out how many times he had to make a man miss before even reaching the line of scrimmage. His ability to juke the defender and make a cut to the hole makes him such a special back.
Robinson can do just about anything on the football field. He can finesse a defender out of their shoes on one play, and then turn into a bowling ball through the line on the next. His ability to make the second and third defender miss creates some huge runs, and his balance helps him gain the extra couple of yards after an initial hit.
He’ll transition to the NFL as a three-down, do-it-all running back. He’ll be able to do anything his professional team wants to do, and his talent in the passing game and pass protection will keep him on the field for plenty of snaps. Robinson should produce right away in the NFL next season.
THE COMBINE
Courtesy of NFL.com.
If it was possible for Bijan Robinson’s stock to go up at the NFL Combine, he did just that in Indianapolis this March. DLF’s Shane Manila called him one of the winners of the NFL Combine. He did everything he needed to do in the measurables, running a 4.46-second 40-yard dash, good enough for an 89th percentile speed score. NFL Next-Gen stats gave him a total score of 96, the best out of all the running backs at the combine.
The running back drills were a walk in the park for Robinson. He showed incredible smoothness going through the obstacles, making easy cuts and high-level burst through the holes. In the passing game, he looked natural, ran clean routes and went out to get the ball with his hands. There’s nothing to complain about watching this workout.
POTENTIAL LANDING SPOTS
Robinson is being mocked in the first round by most draft analysts, and is often the only running back selected in the first round. ESPN’s Mel Kiper has Robinson going to the Buffalo Bills at 1.27 and Todd McShay pushes him all the way into the top ten, going to Philadelphia with the tenth pick. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com has him going 1.19 to the Buccaneers and The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has Philadelphia trading back to 1.14 and selecting Robinson with that pick.
Any of the running back-needy teams could benefit from taking Robinson. It would be best to see him go to a team that already has an explosive offense and needs a running back to take it over the top. That makes Buffalo and Philadelphia two very intriguing landing spots for 2022’s Doak Walker winner.
DYNASTY TRADES
Robinson is the consensus number one pick in one-quarterback leagues, and should go that high in many two-quarterback and superflex leagues as well. Robinson went number one overall in every February mock draft hosted by Dynasty League Football, except for one superflex mock where he went number two behind Bryce Young. Robinson is so valuable that, even in startup dynasty drafts, he’s already a top-five pick in one-quarterback leagues behind only Jusitn Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown, according to DLF’s ADP.
Since Robinson is such a valuable asset already, the trade market for the 1.01 pick has been hot. If you didn’t tank for Bijan, you’ll need to pay up to draft Robinson to your team. Here are the most recent trades for the 1.01 pick in one-quarterback dynasty leagues, from the DLF Trade Finder Tool.
Plenty of huge names are on the move in order to trade up for Robinson. One trade even involves Justin Jefferson in a blockbuster deal to trade up ten picks for the 1.01 pick. Fair value will depend on individual team needs and desires, but expect to move on from multiple first-round picks, and some high-end players to acquire Robinson!
Bijan Robinson is already the number one running back in startup drafts, and he doesn’t even know what team he’s on. Assuming he’s healthy, he’ll be a high-end running back for years to come and a cornerstone of dynasty fantasy football teams. Don’t hesitate with that first overall rookie draft pick, take Robinson and make every other manager in your league jealous!
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