Final Dynasty Rookie Report Card: Running Backs, Part Two
Throughout the season, the Rookie Report Card has covered some of the biggest rookies and not only looked at their performance to date – but also their long-term upside. Now that the regular season has wrapped up and dynasty managers are looking towards the future, we have an opportunity to take one last look at the 2022 season and assess the rookies – a final report card if you will.
We covered 38 rookies throughout the season, including 11 running backs. Let’s put a bow on the season by taking one more look at those ball carriers’ first shot handling the ball on Sundays, as well as a quick glimpse into their futures in part two of the running back Rookie Report Card.
Brian Robinson, RB WAS
2022 Stats: 205 carries, 797 yards (3.9 YPC), two touchdowns, nine receptions, 60 yards, one touchdown
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: Week 15
Robinson’s rookie season was a roller coaster ride. Going from dynasty sleeper in the summer to the victim of a horrific shooting in training camp and then returning to the field just weeks later, his comeback story was one of the stories of the season and is extremely heartwarming.
Nevertheless, we’re here to take an honest look at Robinson’s performance on the field as a rookie.
He wasn’t very productive early on, averaging just 3.35 yards per carry in his first seven games. He displayed average burst at the line of scrimmage and very little tackle-breaking ability. Although he had a surge of production in weeks 12 through 15, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and 15.1 PPR fantasy points per game, he never looked explosive as a rookie and often appears plodding and sluggish.
A true workhorse back late in the season, Robinson averaged 19.7 carries per game over his final seven contests. That workload translated into just one top-12 fantasy finish, two more top-24 finishes and four performances that landed him at RB29 or worse for the week.
Simply put, Robinson doesn’t appear to be more than a replacement-level tailback. The chances of him developing into anything more than a fill-in flex option are unlikely so dynasty managers should get what they can for him this off-season.
Isaiah Spiller, RB LAC
2022 Stats: 18 carries, 41 yards (2.3 YPC), three receptions, 13 yards
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: None
After a standout college career at Texas A&M that saw him run for nearly 3,000 yards and 25 touchdowns over three seasons, expectations were high for Spiller during draft season last spring. It was a surprise to many when he slipped to the fourth round of the NFL Draft but questions about his burst and long speed (4.6 40-yard dash) pushed him down NFL draft boards and subsequently down dynasty rankings as well, going in the second round of many rookie drafts after appearing to be a locked-in first-rounder early in the off-season.
Landing in Los Angeles behind Austin Ekeler was seen by many to be a positive as Spiller profiled as an upgrade over Joshua Kelley and the expectation was that he could carve out a role as a goal-line or change-of-pace specialist but those opportunities didn’t develop for him as a rookie. In fact, the coaching staff appeared to prefer Kelley and veteran Sony Michel when Ekeler needed rest.
Declared a healthy inactive for most of the season, we didn’t get to see Spiller on the field enough to make an educated guess on his future but playing behind a below-average runner like Kelley is not a good sign.
I still have hope the quick decision-making to find running lanes and elusiveness to avoid tacklers that he showed in college transitions to the NFL but I’m not holding my breath. Spiller will enter his second season as a back-of-the-roster dynasty asset.
Kenneth Walker III, RB SEA
2022 Stats: 228 carries, 1,050 yards (4.6 YPC), nine touchdowns, 27 receptions, 165 yards
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: Week Seven
Following the injury to Rashaad Penny in week five, Kenneth Walker made an immediate impact for fantasy managers. Scoring nine touchdowns in a seven-game stretch, he introduced as an RB1 that we could count on to get a heavy workload and put up big production.
Walker posted RB8 or better fantasy finishes in three of his first four starts, skyrocketing his dynasty value all the way into the first round of ADP. Scoring a long touchdown almost every week, he showed the 4.38 40-time he blazed at the combine was legit, while also proving to have solid cut-back vision, good power at the point of attack and excellent balance to gain extra yardage after contact.
A true workhorse runner, Walker has the ability to carry the ball 20-plus times in a game, which he did six times as a rookie. That workload can create big touchdown upside and “week-winning” performances for dynasty managers – particularly if Seattle chooses to use him consistently in the passing game.
If there is one thing to nitpick after watching each of Walker’s 228 carries as a rookie, it’s his insistence on trying to bounce runs to the perimeter, looking for the big play, rather than cutting it upfield and getting the four or five yards in front of him. I guess a few negative runs are the cost of the handful of 50-plus-yard touchdown runs though.
As I wrote when summing up Breece Hall in part one of the Final Rookie Report Card, dynasty managers who are competing should happily put Walker in their starting lineups every week, but it’s foolish not to consider trading any running back with first-round startup value considering the injury risk at the position.
Jaylen Warren, RB PIT
2022 Stats: 77 carries, 379 yards (4.9 YPC), one touchdown, 28 receptions, 214 yards
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: None
When I scouted Warren coming out of Oklahoma State, I saw a very solid college tailback with good vision to make backside cuts and the power to run through arm tackles. He was a fun player to watch for the Cowboys, setting up blocks well and running with authority. Most importantly for fantasy players, he flashed as a pass catcher, making multiple plays in the screen game.
A modest 40-yard dash (4.55) and questions about his ability to make defenders miss at the next level pushed him down NFL Draft rankings and off the radar of most dynasty managers during draft season but he made the most of each opportunity he got backing up Najee Harris as a rookie.
Despite limited touches, Warren looked more dynamic than Harris, averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 9.9 yards per catch compared to 3.8 per carry and 5.6 per catch for the starter. He was powerful between the tackles, looked quicker than he ever did in college at the second level, and was smooth as a pass catcher.
Warren looks like a pour-man’s Maurice Jones-Drew, missing only MJD’s long speed. Short and compact with good vision, a slick cut-back, good power and great hands; he appears to be – at the very least – an excellent change-of-pace back and very good passing-down option. I see a path to Warren being a solid fantasy option if he ever gets the lion’s share of the work in the backfield. Until then, he’ll remain a quality developmental running back for dynasty managers as we all wait for him to get his chance.
Rachaad White, RB TB
2022 Stats: 129 carries, 481 yards (3.7 YPC), one touchdown, 50 receptions, 290 yards, two touchdowns
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: None
I wanted to profile White in the Rookie Report Card this season but he never really had the game that ideally showcased his skillset. Sure, he had a 100-yard rushing game against the Seahawks which exhibited his ability to handle a big workload (22 carries), patience to let blocking develop in front of him, and ability to idetify and cut through running lanes; but he didn’t catch a pass that week. Then, there was a two-game stretch where he caught all 15 of 17 targets but he wasn’t a big factor in the run game.
No matter, White had a well-rounded (although not especially eye-popping) rookie season. Some may point to his 3.7-yard average per carry as a reason to doubt him but the Buccs’ offensive line was in shambles all season (Leonard Fournette averaged 3.5 yards per carry) and the coaching staff couldn’t commit to a ground game throughout the year so I tend to give him a pass on that. Others will point to his lack of breakaway speed in college and conclude his modest yards-per-carry and yards-per-reception (5.7) numbers as a rookie reflect his shortcomings in explosiveness.
Personally, I feel like White did everything he could in a less-than-ideal situation with the Bucs this season. He was asked to contribute as a check-down option in the passing game, primarily, and he did it. There are still questions to be answered though.
If I was to grade White’s long-term upside before the season, I would have said he has RB2 potential for dynasty players when he gets a backfield to himself. Now, I’ll say he has RB2 potential if he gets a backfield to himself. It’s a relatively big if.
White didn’t make enough dynamic plays to prove he’s a future dynasty stud as many of us thought he might be when he was drafted. He needs to show he can be explosive as both a runner and receiver to reach his upside. Currently the RB25 in dynasty, I’m fine with his price but wouldn’t be opposed to trading him if the right offer came my way considering there are so many changes about to happen in Tampa Bay and he didn’t put enough on tape as a rookie to prove he deserves a shot a being, “the guy.”
Zamir White, RB LV
2022 Stats: 17 carries, 70 yards (5.0 YPC)
Regular Season Rookie Report Card: None
Handling only 17 carries as a rookie (and never more than two in a single game), it’s difficult to grade White’s upside but he’s worth mentioning here simply because of the situation in Las Vegas. With Josh Jacobs’ contract expiring, White could be in line to get the first crack at taking over as the Raiders’ starter. Considering Jacobs handled 340 carries in 2022, that’s noteworthy for dynasty players.
White profiled coming out of Georgia as a power runner with vision to find the open field and footwork to make defenders miss at all three levels of the defense. He has good contact balance and a nose for the end zone, which sounds a lot like what Jacobs was doing en route to becoming the rushing champ in 2022.
At this point, we don’t know if White can be a bellcow runner but with a 13th-round startup ADP, he’s worth the gamble. He’s got the pedigree of an RB2 tailback and might be in the ideal position to showcase his talents as quickly as next season if Jacobs moves on in free agency. Even though we didn’t see it from him as a rookie, now is the time to add him via the trade market because his price will spike the second Jacobs signs elsewhere.
Check back in the coming days for the final rookie report card for this year’s crop of tight ends.
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