Dynasty Trending Observations: Puka Nacua and Mike Evans are Lighting it Up, Travis Kelce is Not
We’ve arrived at the point dynasty leagues work all year towards – championship week. But while two teams in your league are still alive, that means all others are on to next season. Below are a few developments from this week and social media to help you get a head start.
Puka Set
Most games with 150+ yards from scrimmage by a rookie WR in the Super Bowl-era:
PUKA NACUA – 4 (2023) 🐏
Randy Moss – 3 (1998) 🟣
Ja'Marr Chase – 3 (2021) 🐅 pic.twitter.com/cKVCtYD7YU— PFF (@PFF) December 22, 2023
The feat Puka Nacua achieved is impressive enough. Four 150-yard receiving games in his rookie year is league-winner-type stuff from a receiver. But then you consider that the other two on this list – Randy Moss and Ja’Marr Chase – are both former first-round picks while Nacua was drafted in the fifth round and it’s even more amazing. Nacua’s fourth 150-yard game (along with at least one spectacular catch) also came just in time for the fantasy playoffs, no doubt boosting those dynasty teams that took a chance on him.
Nacua was first getting noticed in preseason when the Rams, already heading into the season without Cooper Kupp, were desperate for a receiving option. The Allen Robinson experiment was over and no Rams pass catchers were exactly inspiring confidence. Enter Nacua, who has not only earned the trust of quarterback Matthew Stafford but is blowing away other receivers – both rookies and veterans – when it comes to fantasy scoring.
Dynasty Impact: The question for current Nacua managers is what to do with him. For a lot of dynasty players, there’s an instinct to sell him to the highest bidder so that you can realize huge gains on your small investment. Using our DLF Trade Analyzer, Nacua is currently being valued as an early first-round rookie pick. Not quite the 1.1 (where future stud Marvin Harrison Jr will most likely be) but it’s close.
However, having Nacua on your dynasty team takes care of a need that every roster has – a stud receiver. In just his first professional season, he’s totaled 96 receptions for 1,327 yards and five touchdowns and he still has two games left. He’s not only the best rookie pick from 2023 but will be a league-winner in both dynasty and redraft leagues. On top of that, he’ll enter next season at just 23 years old which is the same as many other young receivers.
The temptation will be strong to get a huge return for Nacua but why risk it? Any return would include young players and/or picks that haven’t yet matched what he has already accomplished and you’re on the ground floor. Just build around him and focus on other areas of your roster that aren’t already solidified.
The King is Dead. Long, Live the King.
So this is what Mahomes would have looked like in Chicago.
— Adam Rank (@adamrank) December 25, 2023
Not only did Travis Kelce and the Chiefs play poorly in front of the most famous person on the planet but, thanks to the Christmas scheduling, most of the country. It was the latest low moment for Kansas City in a season full of them as they lost to the Raiders at home while Kelce managed just five receptions for 44 yards barely a top-20 fantasy finish and during the fantasy playoffs no less!
For Kelce, he’s looked downright pedestrian over the last few weeks. He’s just the eighth-highest-scoring tight end over the last month which still makes him valuable but is certainly not the Kelce we’re all used to. It’s hard to know if his age (34) is catching up to him or if it’s the weight of carrying the offense due to a lack of another reliable option. We know it hasn’t been a great season for Mahomes – either in real life or fantasy – and it’s had a trickle-down effect on Kelce. His current 10.8 yards-per-reception average would be the lowest total of his career and is on pace for his lowest yardage total since 2017. Whatever the cause, it has created an issue worth monitoring for Kelce dynasty managers.
Dynasty Impact: Elite tight ends are hard to come by in dynasty leagues but for those who have had Kelce the last few years, they haven’t had to worry about it. Not only was he the top option but he was so far ahead of the rest at the position that he created an unfair advantage against every other dynasty team.
But those days are gone and likely for good. He’s already been knocked off the top spot in our DLF Tight End rankings – that honor belongs to TJ Hockenson now – but it’s possible Kelce gets knocked down a few more spots before next season. Rookies Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid are coming on strong and several other young players will be a TE1 on dynasty teams including Trey McBride, Michael Mayer, and more.
If you’re a current Kelce manager and can get at least a first-round rookie pick for him next year, it’s time to consider it. There are several young, cheap options currently out there and more to come in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Be Like Mike
Bucs’ WR Mike Evans has 13 touchdown receptions this season and is now the fifth player in NFL history to record at least 12 touchdown receptions in five-or-more seasons, joining Jerry Rice (eight seasons), Terrell Owens (seven), Marvin Harrison (six) and Randy Moss (six). pic.twitter.com/oWMDFN9VQB
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 25, 2023
After turning 30 and going from Tom Brady at quarterback to Baker Mayfield, there were plenty of dynasty league managers who moved on from Mike Evans. It was understandable as you’d rather trade a player too early rather than late and there was seemingly nothing to look forward to with Evans. But he proved all of us wrong by having another, typical Evans season – 73 receptions, 1,163 yards, and 13 touchdowns and is contributing to plenty of fantasy championship teams.
But those same issues that Evans’ managers worried about last year will still be an issue in 2024. He’ll be 31 and looks to have Baker Mayfield again at quarterback. Those two things didn’t stop Evans this year but that magic can’t last forever.
Dynasty Impact: As a current Evans dynasty manager, it pains me to say this but it might be time to sell high this off-season. Evans has done everything to ensure his dynasty value is maintained and, according to our DLF Trade Analyzer, is currently worth a late first-round rookie pick. He will be 31 before next season and while it’s certainly possible to keep up this kind of production, it won’t be for much longer. If you’re a current Evans manager and have a playoff-caliber roster, you should keep him. But if you’re already in the beginning stages of a rebuild and he is still on your roster, he should be the first to move.
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