Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 14
Welcome! In this series, I try and be short, sharp, and to the point offering some conclusions based on trends in volume and regression. Let’s get to it.
You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.
ARI
Last week I pointed out:
“James Conner took on an elite share of snaps this week, 76%, finishing as the RB4 on the week with 22.5 points in PPR. It was with only two targets and his target share wasn’t ideal, 7%, so this was probably the exception in terms of his ceiling, as he is ranked as the RB22 in weighted opportunity (W/Opp). The team enters a rough schedule to close out the season the average PPG of running backs facing their schedule scored 50% lower than the league average.”
This week starts that rough schedule as they face San Francisco which has only allowed 15.8 PPG to the running back position, or 29% less than the league average. Maybe hold him out of your roster if you have an option.
ATL
Predicting Arthur Smith is a futile exercise and it’s hard to trust that week 14 was real, for that reason, however. However Drake London (WR7) Kyle Pitts (TE7), and Bijan Robinson (RB3) all maintained and paid off on their team-leading in a way that we expected back in week one.
Robinson had the third-highest target share, tied with Jonnu Smith (7 targets), and only ran a slightly lower route share (31 routes compared to Smith’s 33 routes).
Atlanta passed the ball 60% of the time, a line they have crossed only three times (all in losses) and one of only five games they have passed over 38 times total and one loss in that split suggesting they only pass significantly more when chasing the game.
Almost everyone is due touchdown regression, except Bijan Robinson who is performing as expected on both his red zone touches and in the ratio of yards per touchdown.
This week the Falcons face Carolina which has been a below-average matchup for every position except running back in terms of PPG allowed to each position. They have also allowed a league-high eight top 12 games to the running back position this season.
BAL
Lamar Jackson has finished in the top five at his position five times this season, or 38% of the time. The position average for top-five finishes in the top 12 is 29%. He’s one of three players at quarterback who have provided six or more such weeks. Usable weeks aren’t as predictive as points per game (PPG) but it does accurately describe who is providing more value for winning teams on a week-by-week basis.
He’s entering an above-average matchup against Jacksonville in week 15 (who have allowed 18.9% more points per game than the league average this season) and has a decent schedule to finish out the year (an average of 11% more PPG allowed to his position based on his matchups.)
Keaton Mitchell has had over 30% of the snaps each of the last three games and seems to be encroaching on Gus Edwards‘s role as he’s played under 30% of the snaps the last three weeks despite playing over 40% on average this season. Right now, it looks like a fantasy frustrating committee.
BUF
Stefon Diggs hasn’t finished in the top 24 at his position since week 11, however, he also hasn’t been facing great matchups (not something we typically have to worry about for Diggs). However he has average to above-average matchups over the next three weeks and despite having a season-low 17.5% of the team routes in week 14 I’d expect him to score more highly soon because while his raw counting volume might be down his rate and role have been stable, suggesting it’s been more about the matchup and game script.
CAR
I don’t see much more to note here except they also enter a mediocre matchup with little in terms of regression trends standing out. Atlanta is a slightly above-average matchup for the tight end position this year and Tommy Tremble has averaged 13% of routes in the last three weeks and seems to have a slight role in the offense. It’s not much.
CHI
DJ Moore has been on a hot streak, finishing back inside the top 12 in each of the last three games. He faces Cleveland this week which has been a below-average matchup for every position by a significant amount. Wide receivers have found success against them, all the way from George Pickens in week two to Puka Nacua in week 13 (and Tyler Lockett in Josh downs in weeks seven and eight) to finish in the top 12. But it’s the playoffs for most and that’s too important a week not to consider that Moore’s median projection this week is more top 24 than top 12.
CIN
A huge game against Indianapolis by the Jake Browning-led Bengals allowed Chase Brown to snag 11 touches, three targets, and an RB10 finish (19.5 PPR points). However, Joe Mixon still dominated touches and led significantly in snap share 62% to 30%, and outside of a runaway game script, Brown is unlikely to see a significant change in usage moving forward.
Browning, as we may have hoped, has been able to step in behind Joe Burrow well and finish in the top five in both last two weeks. However, it has been at a significantly lower passing rate, (average 49% passing attempts compared to the season’s average for the team of 56%). Minnesota offers his first below-average matchup since week 12 when he finished as the QB18 in his first full game.
CLE
Joe Flacco continued his thriving return to the NFL finishing in the top ten at his position and leading the team to their first win in three weeks against Jacksonville. Week 15 brings on a tougher matchup against Chicago, making him a borderline start in superflex.
Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore continue to run behind the average touchdown rate significantly, Moore specifically has put up 229 yards since week ten without a touchdown, and Cooper 259 yards since week nine without a touchdown.
Last week David Bell caught a receiving touchdown and 41 receiving yards on three targets. His route share was still below five percent and while efficiency can lead to more usage I think it’s more likely to be a one-off as Flacco explores his weapons.
Chicago is not a great matchup for any receiver this year and no Cleveland pass catcher ranks inside the top 20 at wide receiver, though David Njoku is startable for anyone without an elite option.
DAL
This is kind of a margin call in a target-rich environment, but while we’re here… Dallas has continued to be a gold mine for fantasy in 2023 and I expect that to keep rolling. While Buffalo is a decent to average matchup for most positions I think running back looks like the best top 12 potential.
Tony Pollard didn’t score a touchdown for the first time in three weeks in week 14 and I think that should come back around. It’s not an outlandish bet, nor a difficult one based on his high red zone rate and sixth-ranked Weighted Opportunity Rating at the position. But it’s what stands out to me most right now.
DEN
Javonte Williams paid off by finishing as the RB12 with 19.1 PPR points. Unfortunately, it was just in time to face Detroit who has allowed one of the worst scoring rates to the position this season and only four top 12 weeks in 2023. I’m not sure this is the week to bet on his volume pausing off again if you have other top 24 options.
DET
I praised how startable Amon-Ra St. Brown is after week 13, so of course he finishes as the WR62 in week 14. I’m not one to believe the universe cares about the things I write but that felt personal. I should know better after providing several studies about how consistency isn’t consistent over the years, but I was just enjoying a player I’ve been rooting for since he was underdrafted by the NFL. Still, I’d expect his production to get back on track against Denver this week, average matchup or not, I’m likely sticking with the one who brought me to the playoffs.
GB
In the absence of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed finished as the WR6 in week 14 with 20.5 PPR points on only 15.2% of the route share (behind both Romeo Doubs, 21.4%, and Dontayvion Wicks 14.3%). As much week-to-week upside as this team shows on occasion, it still feels like an unstable situation without a clear WR1, but some talented role players.
HOU
CJ Stroud left the game with a concussion late into it but was having a bad game (his first) before he left. While his injury is crushing I think it’s important to start remembering now how good he’s been as a rookie. I’ve already seen some frankly terrible comparisons to less impressive quarterbacks who had a stretch of “good” fantasy games early.
Stroud has lived up to an elite passing profile in college at the NFL level and in the dynasty, we should try and take advantage of any window we can. If you’re not in the playoffs, and there is no trade deadline in the way, I’d suggest sending offers on him now to help them in the playoffs, and you in the future by having Stroud on your team.
Without Stroud and Tank Dell, I think expecting a return to the disappointing yesteryears of the Houston passing offense is a reasonable expectation, and it likely caps the upside of Devin Singletary outside the top 12 without the positive game script their signal caller was able to bring to the table.
IND
Keep starting Zack Moss. He had another disappointing week and another impressive share of the offense on over 80% of the snaps. Week 15 brings with it the best matchup the position has had for the Colts in the last five weeks.
JAC
Travis Etienne is looking to replicate Evan Engram in week 15. This is the second straight week in a row the Jaguars have faced a below-average matchup at every position. Last week Engram became one of only two tight ends who have managed to finish in the top five against Cleveland. Based on the matchup I think Etienne has the best chance of replicating that performance to be the fourth running back to finish in the top 12 against Baltimore.
KC
There were a lot of bad beats in Kansas City for dynasty this year as a lot of people ran out to celebrate Clyde Edwards-Helaire‘s opportunity without remembering what he’s been able to do with that opportunity for multiple years after being drafted in the first round. He did get the lion’s share of the snaps (48% compared to Jerrick McKinnon’s 45%) and rushing attempts (61% compared to McKinnon’s 22%) and the lead in targets (10.3% compared to McKinnon’s 7.7%). But McKinnon again walked away with a marginally better start with 12.7 PPR points compared to Edwards-Helaire, 8.8. Miami hasn’t been exactly a giving defense to the running back position providing 12% less than the league average in points. It’s still a solid reminder of his muted ceiling.
On the other hand, outside of Travis Kelce, we do have a solid win with Rashee Rice. He is scoring over 12 PPG this year and my ADP projection model based on the history of DLF ADP suggests he’s going to be a seventh-round, top-90 dynasty asset by August this year… but according to November ADP he’s already a top 60 pick, so it’s clear the signal is already out.
New England is a mediocre matchup for every fantasy position this week, but Rice is coming off a hot stream of games with over 15% of the team’s routes in all three games finishing in the top 24 in all three and top 12 in two of them. He is scoring touchdowns at too high a rate, however, and that should slow down even with his high red zone usage (17% of touches inside the 20 per game, and 110 yards per touchdown.)
LAR
Both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp managed to finish as starters again last week and Kyren Williams has been so good his RB18 finish might even be a little disappointing. Matthew Stafford hasn’t finished outside the top 12 in the last few weeks. The Rams have, frankly, been clutch for those trying to get into the playoffs.
This week the Rams face Washington in their last above-average matchup of the season. I can’t see many reasons to sit their studs over the next few weeks, but this isn’t the one to question their upside.
MIN
Justin Jefferson‘s return to the field was a disappointing one as he ran only 3.8% of the team routes and didn’t seem to be part of the game plan. The signs point to him playing and playing a more involved role in week 15 however, and the Bengals are a better matchup for the position than last week.
In dynasty, I tend to wait for slower injuries to work their way out before entering players into my lineup, especially in playoff games, but you’ll have to weigh the upside of Jefferson, if he’s healthy, with the risk of another dud week compared to your opponent this week. There is no exact guide, but I tend to play an alternative if I have one until I see the player back in his usual role.
Ty Chandler took over most of the work after Alexander Mattison went out with an ankle injury. He handled 56% of the snaps and looks like the lead fill-in for anyone who needs a start hoping the opportunity keeps flowing his way.
NE
Ezekiel Elliott came back to the NFL in force last week to roll up 68 rushing yards on 22 touches and 72 receiving yards on a whopping 8 targets (30% target share) capped off with a receiving touchdown. He’d be hard to bench after that return but, fair warning, I’d place him outside the top 12 for week 15 against a tougher, less given the running back position, defense in Kansas City (15% fewer PPG to the position).
JuJu Smith-Schuster also showed back up in week 15 with New England, almost no one cares, I assume, but it was nice to see New England try to bring back 2018 all by itself. For my part all I can say is the role looked real, running 21% of the team’s routes and 23% of the team targets in the absence of Kendrick Bourne, and he does (if you can cast your mind back) have a history of being able to produce and maintain a significant role on an NFL offense.
NO
AT Perry did claim a larger route share this week, back to 18% of the team’s total routes, but in a game where Jimmy Graham returned to scoring touchdowns, it was Lynn Bowden who took the big jump in target share, 18% second only to Chris Olave.
It might be hard to predict starters outside of Alvin Kamara and Olave for teams facing sudden-death playoff games as we’d need to see some consistency in available routes and performance on them before we could start to project them consistently at this point.
NYG
Tommy Devito, as we all know, can move mountains and change the stars of all dynasty teams, but just a heads up that was the last positive fantasy matchup on the New York Giants’ remaining schedule even for Saquon Barkley.
Also, from a dynasty perspective, Wan’Dale Robinson has returned to earning over 19% of the team routes in the last three weeks and is the sort of depth I’m interested in as a piece in a bigger trade this off-season if you are looking to or could use added deeper wide receivers with upside.
NYJ
I mean… you don’t question a Zach Wilson sell window, you just try to take advantage of it.
PHI
No new notes, start everyone… profit. (Even Dallas Goedert unless you have a strong option – he ran 28.3% of the team’s routes last week and it seems like they plan to include him back in the regular offensive plan.)
PIT
It takes Mitchell Trubisky to unlock Diontae Johnson‘s top-24 upside. I made it sound as positive as I could without insulting the fantasy asset that is Kenny Pickett.
George Pickens has also been running more routes the last two weeks, over 21% of the team’s routes in both games and ahead of Diontae Johnson in both. Pat Freiermuth hasn’t been far behind with 19% last week.
Jaylen Warren once again took a significant share of snaps, 51% compared to Najee Harris’ 57%, but it’s not unusual that he creeps over 50% this season in an individual game. Warren often out-targets Harris as well, but he never quite seems to have the balance of the role, instead that normally continues to lean towards Harris in total opportunity share and Harris’s target share is also stable (over 8% even last week) making him the lead back and more startable asset. However, both may be usable during the playoffs since week 15 kicks off a series of positive matchups for the position. The Giants have allowed 26% more to the running back position than the league average making it the most positive fantasy matchup in the NFL right now.
SEA
Drew Lock was… fine, although I think we should hope Geno Smith can get back to the field for anyone who hopes to start Seahawks players in the playoffs. Week 15 would be a good time because Philadelphia is currently the highest-scoring matchup for the wide receiver position producing 33% more in PPG to the position in 2023 than the league average.
Kenneth Walker remains incredibly good while being a marginal part of the receiving game averaging 7% of targets this season. He entered a negative matchup as most teams do end up throwing the ball more and more against the Eagles trying to keep up. He’s still a strong RB2 in almost every league, but I’m not expecting a ceiling week.
SF
I’m not involved in the “is Brock Purdy good or great” debate and refuse to be drawn into it. He’s been remarkably good relative to his draft capital in both the NFL and fantasy, and I’m grateful I get to start all San Francisco skill position players every week with their health. That is something I will continue.
WAS
Last week Brian Robinson suffered an injury which led to Antonio Gibson taking on 56% of the snaps before their bye week. Look for him and maybe even Chris Rodriguez (22% of snaps) to have a bigger role in week 15.
That’s about all I have for you right now. But let me know what you think and feel free to look through my data to make your observations.
Until next week, good luck, and have fun.
Pahowdy
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 15 - December 23, 2023
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 14 - December 16, 2023
