Dynasty Blueprint: Five Top Takeaways From Week Ten

Allegiant Stadium

Ryan McDowell Posted On November 13, 2023

Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind.

This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.

DYNASTY FIVE

Here are the five dynasty-related stories that have my attention coming off of another week of NFL action.

Kyler Returns

At the beginning of the season, there was some uncertainty about if Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray would play at all this season. Despite managing just one win through the first nine weeks, Arizona was much more competitive than expected and once Murray proved he was ready, the team announced he’d get the start in Week Ten. They even punctuated that decision by trading previous starter Joshua Dobbs to the Vikings. (More on that later.)

Murray made his debut at home against the Falcons on Sunday and quickly reminded us why he was valued as a high-end dynasty QB1 every month for three straight years prior to his ACL injury last season. Murray rushed for a touchdown and passed for nearly 250 yards, leading Arizona to their second win of the season. As DLF’s Dan Meylor noted on this week’s DLF Dynasty Podcast, Murray’s return to the field could’ve been even bigger. He had a passing touchdown to rookie Michael Wilson overturned and the Cardinals used backup quarterback Clayton Tune on a “tush push” play at the goal line.

Finishing as a fringe QB1 in his first game back this season, Murray has quickly regained his locked-in weekly fantasy starter status. Now, I’m more interested in how quickly he moves up the charts in our dynasty rankings and ADP. In our latest November dynasty ADP, Murray is the QB12. As bad as the overall quarterback play has been across the league, this value range is very competitive. Murray will have to continue the high level of play we saw on Sunday to move back into the top-eight dynasty signal callers.

Detroit’s One-Two Punch

The Cardinals were not the only team to welcome back an impact player. The Lions’ backfield was at full strength in Week Ten as veteran David Montgomery returned from a rib injury that cost him two games. There were many questions about what the backfield usage would look like since rookie Jahmyr Gibbs had performed at such a high level with Montgomery on the bench. Which back should fantasy managers trust? The answer, as many expected, was both.

Gibbs led the backfield in snaps (38), routes run (21), rush attempts (14) and all receiving numbers (3/35 on five targets.) Gibbs also scored a pair of one-yard rushing touchdowns. Montgomery used a 75-yard touchdown scamper to pad his stat line and ultimately led the duo with 116 rushing yards. Pending Monday Night Football’s results, both Lions backs are in line to finish as RB1s for the week.

From a dynasty standpoint, Gibbs is the obvious winner here. He’s been a fast riser, especially over the past three weeks, and that ascension is likely to continue. He could easily be valued as highly as RB2 by the community. Montgomery is a fun topic too. Many, including the Bears, gave up on him following last season and Montgomery has filled the Jamaal Williams role, plus. He’s among the top trade targets for win-now dynasty teams.

The most recent Montgomery example in our Trade Finder database is just the type of move I’d suggest. Use future draft capital for help winning now, while protecting your first-round pick.

This Year’s Geno Smith?

This is a game we like to play each offseason. Who is this year’s Dameon Pierce, the late-round back who becomes a fantasy starter? Who is this year’s Julian Edelman, the gritty, out-of-nowhere slot specialist? Who is this year’s Geno Smith, the journeyman turned franchise quarterback who makes a fantasy impact? Usually, the answer is no one. These seasons are memorable because they so rarely happen. Looking for them is good process though.

Now, we might be looking at a rare repeat. Following the Seahawks’ Russell Wilson trade in the 2022 offseason, they were left with the veteran Smith to be their starter. A former second-round pick, Smith was a bust for the Jets and had failed to make a significant impact at any of his other stops along the way. Then, he shocked everyone with his high level of play in 2022, finishing as the QB5 on the season.

The path for Vikings quarterback Joshua Dobbs has not been exactly the same. A former Day Three pick, Dobbs is now with his fifth NFL team since entering the league in 2018, and his third since training camp concluded just a few months ago. The Browns shipped Dobbs to Arizona just before the season started and with seemingly no other options, he got the Week One starting nod. After a rough debut in the opener, Dobbs got it going. He produced three top-ten fantasy performances for the Cardinals before they sent him packing to Minnesota.

We all know what has happened since. Dobbs is 2-0 as the Vikings quarterback, including last week’s improbable comeback win. Dobbs now has five QB1 games on the season and removing his disastrous Week One performance, he’s the QB6 on the season. Dobbs is second among all quarterbacks with 368 rushing yards, offering a weekly floor for fantasy managers. At just 28 years old, it’s about time to have a conversation about Dobbs’ long-term potential. He might just be here to stay.

Pollard Problems

The Dallas Cowboys have been rolling this year, putting up some huge numbers (against the bad team) and beating down opponents by multiple scores. Since returning from their Week Seven bye, Dallas is averaging over 38 points per game. Dak Prescott is the QB1 over that span, by a wide margin. CeeDee Lamb is the WR1 over that span, by a wide margin. Jake Ferguson has even gotten in on the action, scoring as the TE4 in recent weeks. You would think this type of offensive production would be good news for all involved. For some reason though, running back Tony Pollard just can’t escape the funk he’s been in since Week One.

Pollard scored a pair of Week One touchdowns, and finished as the RB5 on the week. After an offseason of hype, this was justification and his dynasty value began to grow even more. The next two weeks, he posted solid RB11 and RB13 games and was the RB4 through three games. Then, it all fell apart. Pollard is the RB33 since Week Three, scoring a total of just 55.7 fantasy points. He hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week One and only has one finish among the top 25 running backs over the past six games. Dallas has blown out teams and been blown out. The game script doesn’t seem to matter for Pollard.

Usage is certainly not the problem. Pollard is second in the league with 37 red zone rush attempts, leads the league with 21 carries inside the ten-yard line, and second in the league with a dozen chances inside the five. He’s just the RB23 based on red zone fantasy points though, showing he’s not making the most of his chances.

Recent trades found in DLF’s Trade Finder show that Pollard’s value has obviously dropped, but could still offer a sell opportunity. Trades including Pollard for Drake London, or Alvin Kamara, or a future first-round pick. All of these would be quick accepts in spots I have Pollard.

Jags or J.A.Gs?

Following the promise of the 2022 season, expectations for the Jaguars were very high entering this season. Trevor Lawrence was being valued as a top-seven dynasty quarterback and a late fifth-round startup pick. The season started well for Lawrence and his new teammate Calvin Ridley. Lawrence tossed a couple of scores, including one to Ridley, and finished as the QB8 for the Week. Lawrence hasn’t finished any higher than QB9 since that game and has just three total QB1 games on the year. Through ten weeks, Lawrence is the QB18, which is even worse than it sounds given all of the quarterback injuries. Based on points per game, Lawrence falls to QB24. Given his age, supporting cast, and pedigree, there are still reasons to be excited about Lawrence over the long term, but with the play of CJ Stroud, the promise of Anthony Richardson, and the return of Murray, Lawrence will be tumbling out of the top-ten dynasty quarterbacks.

The story is similar for Ridley. After his WR6 performance in Week One, Ridley has only scored inside the top 28 fantasy receivers one time. He’s the WR43 on the season but falls to the WR54 without factoring in his Week One stat line. I’m confident Lawrence turns things around and becomes a valuable dynasty asset. Ridley though is soon turning 29 years old, and was out of football for nearly two years due to injuries and a suspension. He dropped from WR19 in the pre-season to his current WR38 ADP. Even with his massive value loss, he should be the most obvious dynasty sell there is, even if that means taking a loss.

FOR YOUR EYES ONLY

The longtime DLF readers might remember this from my time penning the weekly DLF Dynasty Newsletter. Essentially, this area will offer me an opportunity to share whatever dynasty-related topic is at the front of my mind this week.

Trends in fantasy football are so important. A 17-game sample is both a small sample size and also a long season full of ebbs and flows. What is true in Week One has already been forgotten and scoffed about by Week Ten.

Some data trends in the fantasy football space can feel overdone and convoluted but I like to keep it simple. Who are the top producers in recent weeks? This information can offer insight into some of the most crucial decisions dynasty managers make on a weekly basis, namely lineups and trades.

With that in mind, here are the top ten fantasy scorers for the past four weeks. This is based on fantasy points per game with a minimum of three games required.

QUARTERBACK:

Howell, Dobbs, and Mayfield are all relatively cheap targets that could help teams survive the next few weeks.

RUNNING BACK:

The Gibbs’ explosion is evident here, while Rachaad White’s breakout has been much quieter. Gus Edwards and D’Onta Foreman are surprising and risky options moving forward, given the competition on their respective teams. Najee Harris has been an enemy of the dynasty community for the past two years but might just be back.

WIDE RECEIVER:

A couple of these names stand out in a major way. Most of these players are not only the top-trending scorers, but they are also among the highest-upside dynasty receivers in the game. And then there are the Texans. Rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is boosting this offense and turning players like Noah Brown and Tank Dell into weekly fantasy starters. This Houston offense has already become one of the top in the league for fantasy managers. We want pieces of this team, even if that means Noah Brown.

TIGHT END:

If you find a manager in your league who does not value Jake Ferguson as a weekly fantasy starter, take advantage of that and make the move. Also, Taysom Hill remains a weekly fantasy starter in any format where he is tight end eligible. If you can flip George Kittle for Trey McBride based on name value, do that deal.

Author
Recent Posts

Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.