Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired
Standing still is the fastest way of moving backwards in a rapidly changing dynasty landscape. The best dynasty teams are the most active in looking for ways to add value to their dynasty rosters, as part of a continuous process.
The Dynasty Targets Acquired series focuses on making dynasty buys to improve your roster, heading towards one of two key destinations – contending to win a dynasty title in 2023 or rebuilding for a dynasty title challenge in 2024. Each article in the series will highlight a dynasty buy for both contenders and rebuilders – with three trade ideas based on the DLF Trade Analyzer: Pivot Up, Same Tier or Pivot Down.
Buying as a contender is all about winning the title now, whilst leaving the window open to compete again year after year. Buying as a rebuilder is all about making the right trades to maximize roster value next season and become a contender for a dynasty championship.
TIME CONTEXT AND STRATEGY
As the first half of the 2023 NFL season draws to a close, contenders and pretenders begin to become defined. Some teams that started 4-0 have since come back down to the pack, while some of the 0-4 teams have found new life and are looking to make a push for the playoffs.
This is the point in the season where the buyers and sellers begin to emerge in leagues. The teams that started off slowly but were holding out hope have now been forced to face reality, while those teams that have gotten through the first half of the season unscathed are now looking to load up for a lengthy playoff run. So, with that in mind, most of my suggestions are going to be referencing trades between a contender and a rebuilder. Contender-to-contender trades are rare, as are rebuilder-to-rebuilder trades.
This is the strategy you should be employing here. If you are on one end of the spectrum, you should be looking to trade with a team on the opposite end of the spectrum. That is how you maximize your value.
CONTENDER BUY – Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
The Rams have had a solid offense this season despite the limited ceiling of Matthew Stafford at his advanced age. This week, Kupp’s stock fell even further with the news that Matthew Stafford would not play in week nine. It was a disastrous showing by backup Brett Rypien that led to a poor outing by Kupp and the entire Rams offense.
Stafford should return to action sooner than later and the Rams’ attack should fall right back into a familiar rhythm that sees Kupp being peppered with targets on a consistent basis.
The threat Puka Nacua presents as the WR2 in this offense allows for open space for Kupp to get loose on the field. The second half of the season should bring top-five production for one of the league’s truly elite receivers.
Courtesy DLF’s ADP Comparison Tool.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
- Amari Cooper and 2024 first-round pick = Cooper Kupp
A dud by Kupp, paired with a boom game by Cooper presents managers with a unique opportunity to turn Cooper into Kupp. The trade analyzer says that you would have to throw in a late 2024 first-round pick, but after the way week nine played out, I would send out a late second-round pick as my initial offer for Kupp.
Cooper is too boom-or-bust to be trusted when the fantasy playoffs get here, and I much prefer the safe, consistent play of Kupp.
Courtesy DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
- Cooper Kupp = Deebo Samuel
Again, we see a spot where a bad week by Kupp with a backup quarterback could make him an easy player to obtain for fantasy managers. Ordinarily, Kupp would not be an option to trade straight up for Kupp, but the uncertainty at quarterback in Los Angeles paired with the emergence of Puka Nacua has Kupp managers shaken.
You may have to throw in a late draft pick to get this deal done, but all it will take is one more bust game from Kupp and a decent showing by Samuel and this deal could be possible.
Courtesy DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
- Tee Higgins = Cooper Kupp and 2024 second-round pick
The trade analyzer says that if you want to trade down, you should be getting Kupp and a second-round pick for Higgins. Obviously, it is dynasty so the age of both players has to be taken into account, but if I’m a contending team, I think I could be convinced to make this deal straight up and ride with Kupp for a playoff run over Higgins.
Courtesy DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
REBUILDER BUY – Anthony Richardson, QB IND
A rookie quarterback with QB1 overall upside who is done for the season makes for a perfect trade target for rebuilding squads. Many contending teams, especially in superflex, will not want to wait out the year without Richardson as they make a push for a championship.
Richardson has shown immense upside as both a rusher and a passer. He is a potentially elite quarterback for years to come and the time is now to buy him at his lowest, the chance may never come again.
Courtesy DLF’s ADP Comparison Tool.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
- Justin Fields and 2024 third-round pick = Anthony Richardson
Currently, Richardson looks to be what we once hoped Fields would be, but between a struggling offense and poor game processing, Fields has lost some of his shine.
This is a deal that could potentially be swung one-for-one as a desperate contender could be persuaded to make the swap to keep their championship hopes alive, but I have no problem adding in a third-round pick to facilitate the trade.
Courtesy DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
- Anthony Richardson = Tua Tagovailoa
This one may sound like utter madness considering how hot of a start Tagovailoa has gotten off to, but for a rebuilding team it is worth the risk. Tagovailoa has several factors working against him that may cause his current value to evaporate in an instant. First is the ever-present concussion risk. All it takes is one bad hit and it is entirely possible he could call it a career at any moment. Tagovailoa also relies heavily on wide receiver Tyreek Hill who is not getting any younger and is eventually going to start to slow down and limit Tua’s upside.
Even if you do not fear either of the above factors, this deal is still a good idea for a rebuilding team as you get a quarterback with similar upside who is several years younger with less wear and tear.
Courtesy DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
- Lamar Jackson = Anthony Richardson and 2024 second-round pick
The player I see Richardson becoming is a more accurate version of Jackson, so if I can trade away Jackson to get a younger and fresher Richardson and acquire an early-round pick it is a deal worth making. Add in that Jackson has always been on a run-heavy team and the upside for Richardson is greater.
Courtesy DLF’s Trade Analyzer.
SUMMARY
The most critical part of any dynasty league is honest self-evaluation. Do not lie to yourself, it will just hurt you later. Wini-Loss records can be deceptive, my favorite way to appraise my team’s value is by checking to see where I rank in points scored. If I am 7-1 but I am third last in points scored it is likely that I’m living on luck and am not a real contender. The reverse can also be true if you are 2-6 and are on the wrong side of some boom weeks. Assess your team honestly and go from there, that is how you ensure your team never gets caught in the middle wasteland.
- Aaron St. Denis: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 15, 2024
- NFL Scouting Combine: IDP Dynasty Winners and Losers - March 5, 2024
- Past/Present/Future Rookie Pick Value: 2024 Mid 3rd - February 25, 2024
