Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired
Standing still is the fastest way of moving backward in a rapidly changing dynasty landscape. The best dynasty teams are the most active in looking for ways to add value to their dynasty rosters, as part of a continuous process.
The Dynasty Targets Acquired series focuses on making dynasty buys to improve your roster, heading towards one of two key destinations – contending to win a dynasty title in 2023 or rebuilding for a dynasty title challenge in 2024. Each article in the series will highlight a dynasty buy for both contenders and rebuilders – with three trade ideas based on the DLF Trade Analyzer: Pivot Up, Same Tier or Pivot Down.
Buying as a contender is all about winning the title now, whilst leaving the window open to compete again year after year. Buying as a rebuilder is all about making the right trades to maximize roster value next season and become a contender for a dynasty championship.
Time Context and Strategy
As the first month of the 2023 NFL season draws to a close, fantasy leagues begin to see a pecking order. Some teams have started 4-0 and are getting set for a solid season and long playoff run, while others started 0-4 and are beginning to contemplate a rebuild.
This is the point in the season when trading typically heats up. The teams that were winless and were saying: “I’m going to give it one more week” have now seen their squad fall to 0-4 and have begun a full fire sale. This is when we normally see a few of the stronger teams who are less concerned with future draft capital begin to pilfer the assets of the teams deemed to be rebuilders. So, with that in mind, the majority of my suggestions are going to be referencing trades between a contender and a rebuilder. Contender-to-contender trades are rare, as are rebuilder-to-rebuilder trades.
This is the strategy you should be employing here. If you are on one end of the spectrum, you should be looking to trade with a team on the opposite end of the spectrum. That is how you maximize your value.
Contender Buy
Amari Cooper, WR CLE
The Browns’ passing attack has not been clicking on all cylinders in 2023. Quarterback Deshaun Watson hasn’t been good and is now dealing with an injury. As a result of this lackluster offense and the fact that he is 29 years old, Cooper has become a forgotten receiver and is being valued relatively low. This is the time of year when the younger players have become the sexy names and the veterans who are consistent producers get ignored. The flashy players with blow-up games soon surpass the proven veterans and we are presented with an opportunity to extract value.
Cooper currently ranks as the WR32 in half-PPR scoring. That finish would be the lowest of his eight-year career. He is a proven producer and has been for the duration of his career. As Watson returns and this offense finds its legs, Cooper will only rise in value. Trade away those overhyped flash-in-the-pan players now for a player who will be a no-doubt starter in your playoff lineup.
His value is at a career low, despite the fact he is coming off a career year that saw Jacoby Brissett as his quarterback for much of the season. Cooper is a quarterback-proof, matchup-proof, number-two receiver and will produce for as long as he is in your lineup and as long as he stays healthy.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
- Tyler Lockett and 2024 second-round pick = Amari Cooper
Lockett is off to the worst start off his career and yet his value seems to be holding steady. For years, Lockett was the most underrated receiver in the league, as a result, the consensus seems to be that he will bounce back even from this deep slump. The Seahawk’s offense is different this season and Lockett faces more competition than ever before. The addition of rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet is slowly forcing Seattle to spread the ball around, leaving Lockett as an extremely boom-or-bust option.
If I can cash in now and trade him to a team that thinks he will turn it around, I’d love to make the move straight up for Amari Cooper. Cooper has far less competition in the Browns’ offense.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
- Quentin Johnston = Amari Cooper
Let me get this out of the way. During the pre-draft process, I was a Johnston guy. I thought his size and speed would make him an elite Alpha-WR1. After he was drafted by the Chargers his stock began to dip for me. Throughout training camp, into the preseason, and ultimately through the first four games of his career, he has begun to trigger red flags for me.
Johnston has the size that few receivers had in the 2023 rookie class, but he doesn’t play like a big guy, instead allowing himself to be muscled off the ball. He also catches with his body and is prone to concentration drops. In the first game without Mike Williams on the field, it was Joshua Palmer who picked up the slack, not Johnston. I’ve soured on him as a prospect and would be more than happy to throw in a 2025 second-round pick to acquire Cooper for my playoff run.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
- Jahan Dotson = Amari Cooper and 2025 third-round pick
Dotson came into the 2023 season with high expectations, but through four weeks he has been a massive disappointment. Through four games, his season-high point total is 10 points in half-PPR scoring. Sam Howell and the Commanders offense have struggled mightily so far, and Dotson has been the one impacted most.
The talent profile and athleticism are still there, so his dynasty value remains elevated. He’s a solid hold for rebuilders, but for a contending team, he isn’t going to be the missing piece in 2023.
Rebuilder Buy
CJ Stroud, QB HOU
The Texans’ offense has been the surprise of the 2023 season. No one expected the trio of CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell to be so productive. Stroud has gotten off to one of the best starts we’ve ever seen from a rookie quarterback through four games.
Stroud has thrown for more than 250 yards in three out of four games and has topped the 300-yard mark twice. He has also thrown two touchdowns in three straight games. Except for his first NFL start in which he totaled 13 fantasy points, he has been over 28 fantasy points in every game.
Coming out of college, Stroud was regarded as an exceptionally accurate passer. My comparison for his level of accuracy was Drew Brees. I expected Stroud to get off to a bumpy start in his rookie season, that hasn’t happened. The scary part here is, Stroud can only get better. He will be a top-ten dynasty quarterback by the end of the season.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
- Kirk Cousins and 2024 second-round pick and 2024 third-round pick = CJ Stroud
Cousins is off to a blistering start this season, mainly because the Minnesota defense is so bad, they must score non-stop to stay competitive. Now is the time to sell high if you are a rebuilding team.
Cousins is on the most pass-happy offense in the league and has started off the year with one high-scoring shootout after another, this isn’t going to continue all season. Sell Cousins now to a team that wants to win-now, before they realize that Stroud may outscore him this season when all is said and done.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
- Dak Prescott = CJ Stroud
Prescott is very similar to Cousins, except his age makes it much more likely that you can trade him straight up for Stroud without including any additional picks or players. He has been a perennial top-ten quarterback in his career, but despite the Cowboys looking impressive, he is no longer the engine of this offense. In three wins this season, Prescott has put up a less-than-impressive stat line in all three.
He isn’t killing your fantasy team, so his value is still holding, but he’s no longer the league-winner he once was.
Stroud is likely going to outscore him this season, and by this time next season, they will be on totally opposite trajectories. Now is the time to get out on Prescott while he still has enough value to get you a player of Stroud’s caliber.
Let me just say this. I do not care if the trade analyzer says I’m taking a significant loss on this trade. I’m doing it straight up if I must. My future self will thank me for my boldness.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
- Justin Fields = CJ Stroud and 2024 second-round pick
This one would have been a stretch before week four, but after Fields dismantled a brutal Broncos defense and then the Commanders, his value has suddenly rebounded to that of a top-eight quarterback. His value is a mirage and is going to dry up once the Bears face a real defense. Now is the time to sell him for Stroud and get a pick along with it. I would do this trade straight up as I believe Stroud to be the far better asset, but you should be able to get a cherry on top.
At the time of writing this article, Fields’ value hasn’t been reflected to indicate his post-week four rise. The trade analyzer says this one won’t go through, but by the time you read this article, his value should be much higher than it was pre-week four.
Summary
The most critical part of any dynasty league is honest self-evaluation. Don’t lie to yourself, it will just hurt you later. Win-loss records can be deceptive, my favorite way to appraise my team’s value is by checking to see where I rank in points scored. If I’m 3-1 but I’m third last in points scored, it is likely that I’m living on luck and am not a real contender. The reverse can also be true if you are 1-3 and are on the wrong side of some boom weeks. Assess your team honestly and go from there, that’s how you ensure your team never gets caught in the middle wasteland.
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