Dynasty Trending Observations: Trouble in New York for Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson and Darren Waller?
We’re officially one month into the season and a lot has happened. From America’s team (the Detroit Lions) proving last year wasn’t a fluke, to America’s biggest city having to suffer not one but two teams’ seasons on the decline. Below are some of the trends that developed this week.
Lion King(s)
The Lions are legit looking like a run-heavy offense after four games.
-7% dropback rate over expectation.
Slightly below-average plays per minute.
Good news for RBs (well at least Montgomery).
Slightly caps WRs and TEs, but winning via efficiency.https://t.co/MlM7fGKtR4 pic.twitter.com/eWz27QdGOL
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 29, 2023
It was a bit of a head-scratcher when former Chicago Bear David Montgomery signed with the Lions. Not only because it was a division rival but the Lions seemingly had a good thing going with Jamaal Williams before moving on to Montgomery. Add in the drafting of Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick and it made the Montgomery signing even more confounding.
But that’s why NFL general managers get paid the big bucks. The Lions have used both Montgomery and Gibbs beautifully this season, even if it wasn’t what fantasy managers had in mind. Gibbs is nowhere close to the bellcow back people envisioned when the Lions used such a high pick on a back, but that’s okay. He’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry on 39 carries and has 14 receptions on the season.
Meanwhile, Montgomery was a solid RB2 through his first two games of the season, averaging 18 carries per game and scoring in each. Then came Thursday night (after he sat out Week three), where his 121 yards were the most he’s totaled since week two of last season. He also scored three times and added two receptions for 20 yards for good measure. Figuring out which back is the one to keep is a happy problem to have if you’re a Lions fan but it’s a nightmare for dynasty players.
Dynasty Impact: Chances are that if you’re a current Gibbs dynasty manager, you spent considerable draft capital. His (relative) slow start is not what you wanted when you drafted him. Plus, the Lions are winning with their current formula which means they’re not likely to change it up anytime soon. Gibbs would be a hold.
Montgomery managers are in a different boat. He’ll be 27 before next season starts and will be well over 1,000 career carries before then. He’s currently outplaying his dynasty value. acting as a quasi-RB1 instead of the mid-RB3 his ADP suggests. If you’re a current Montgomery manager and you’re in the playoff hunt, you should ride him out.
But if you find yourself at 1-3 or 0-4 and your point total is near the bottom of your league, Montgomery is a perfect trade candidate for a decent (second or third-round) rookie pick next year.
Huh?
Zach Wilson of the @nyjets is the only opposing QB to have more completions, more passing yards, more TD passes and fewer interceptions than Patrick Mahomes in a Mahomes start, college or pro (out of 127 total starts, including postseason).
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) October 2, 2023
Usually when the phrase ‘no one saw this coming’ is used, it’s not quite so literal. But there isn’t a person on the planet who saw Zach Wilson outduel Patrick Mahomes in a nationally televised game, albeit on a loss. Wilson looked the best he ever has in the pros, throwing for 245 yards and two touchdowns. Just as important, the players around him didn’t suffer thanks to his ineptitude. Breece Hall was still averaging 10 yards per carry (even though he had just six attempts) and Garrett Wilson had nine receptions on 14 targets.
For Wilson dynasty managers, that ship sailed long ago, or at least when the Jets traded for Aaron Rodgers to make Wilson’s demotion official. So his sudden resurgence means little to anyone who had him. The bigger issue, after Rodgers went down, was always how it would alter the rest of the offense. Breece Hall was coming back from a major knee injury and looking to take the next step to elite status. Garrett Wilson was already there, already being anointed the next Davante Adams and being tapped as a top-five dynasty receiver. Both of their stocks tanked in light of the Rodgers injury, in re-draft leagues. But with the gem that Zach Wilson threw in week four, what will Hall and Wilson’s value do in dynasty leagues?
Dynasty Impact: The fallout from the Rodgers injury has yet to have a serious effect on the value of both Hall and Wilson. They’re still both considered top-10 players at their position thanks to their age.
As for the future, it’s hard to say. Not just because we don’t know how effective Rodgers will be when (if?) he comes back in 2024. Even if he is performing at a level we thought, how long will that be? Rodgers turns 40 in December and will still be rehabbing a major lower-body injury. He’ll be good for a year or two which is all Hall and Wilson’s manager will have to cling to before the Jets are looking for another quarterback. If a league mate is offering you top dollar for either Hall or Wilson right now, I would take it.
Hitting a Wall(er)
Darren Waller managers watching him on the Giants ✌️ pic.twitter.com/9HpR2tS7b7
— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) October 3, 2023
It’s been a rough start to the season for New York football teams. First, there was the Aaron Rodgers injury fallout for the Jets denoted above. Now we have the seemingly rudderless team the Giants are fielding. Only they can’t blame injuries for their issues, just bad play. Outside of one game this year – when he threw for 321 yards and two touchdowns against Arizona – Daniel Jones has been a disaster. Yes, he’s faced some very tough defenses in Dallas, San Francisco, and Seattle but he has yet to clear more than 203 passing yards or throw any touchdowns against non-Cardinals teams. He’s supplementing the poor passing stats a little with his rushing stats but it’s hardly enough to make up for it.
Of course, we knew Jones could be a problem for dynasty managers but many were hoping tight end Darren Waller could rebound nonetheless. Waller was traded to the Giants in the off-season after two straight, injury-filled seasons with the Raiders. Playing in just over half of the possible games between 2021 and 2022, Waller hasn’t had a TE1 season since 2020 when he totaled over 100 receptions for nearly 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns. But this year, assuming he stays healthy, he’s only on pace for 60 receptions and 600 yards. He’s also yet to score in 2023. Yikes.
Dynasty Impact: For all the injuries, plus the additional years on his body, it hasn’t affected Waller’s dynasty value all that much. Ever since he burst on the scene in 2019, he’s remained a top-ten dynasty tight end.
That may change this year. Some of that change is due to his current situation. The Giants are stuck with Jones’ contract for at least another year which means no change for Waller if he stays in New York. Waller could leave New York but he’d still be another year older in 2024.
But his (relative) value is also taking a hit thanks to an influx of rookie tight ends. Between first-round pick Dalton Kincaid and no less than eight tight ends taken on day two of the 2023 NFL Draft, dynasty rankings are about to get crowded. When it comes to Waller, he’s a hold if you have him and avoid if you don’t.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.04 - April 20, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: Stefon Diggs Moves on - April 14, 2024
- Dynasty Trending Observations: What Next for Brandon Aiyuk? - March 31, 2024
