Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Two

Peter Howard

Welcome back. Let’s get to it, shall we? Here’s my walk through the deeper nooks and crannies of dynasty data and my main observations in NFL usage and regression from week two.

You can find my tables for each team in my free weekly database here.

ARI: The running game is underperforming on a mediocre team with unexciting options

Our Zach Ertz streamer observations seemed to have paid off as Tre McBride remains unable to be more than a fringe part of the offense.

Joshua Dobbs was a top-12 QB this week, which is nice, but I don’t think we can expect that regularly. Marquise Brown is the clear lead receiving option and Michael Wilson, as a rookie, is continuing to be a relatively strong number two but it’s hard to see much consistent upside here week to week. Brown is a top-24 WR in volume, so start him, but that’s about it.

The most notable off-beat note is that James Conner has a stranglehold on the running back position with 68% of the rushing attempts and 9.8% of the target share.

So far, the offense is underperforming in points per touch – to a man – in the rushing game and that could be because they are rushing a fair amount. Volume and regression alone should at least continue to provide top-20 weeks for Conner.

ATL: Drake London is good, but he can’t do it on touchdowns alone

Seven targets and 67 receiving yards wouldn’t feel nearly as good, and London won’t maintain 67 yards per touchdown. Largely we must continue to expect mediocre startability with some week-to-week upside.

On the flip side, not to sound like every other dynasty analyst for the last three years, Kyle Pitts should have good games at some point. Right now his red zone touches are too low to know how often, at least on this version of the offense anyway.

Bijan Robinson is the dynasty RB1, and this week it showed more clearly but he still had only 33% of the rushing attempts (and a healthy 17% of targets).

BAL: Zay Flowers is good, Mark Andrews is better


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Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week Two