Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired
Standing still is the fastest way of moving backward in a rapidly changing dynasty landscape. The best dynasty teams are the most active in looking for ways to add value to their dynasty rosters, as part of a continuous process.
The Dynasty Targets Acquired series focuses on making dynasty buys to improve your roster, heading towards one of two key destinations – contending to win a dynasty title in 2023 or rebuilding for a dynasty title challenge in 2024. Each article in the series will highlight a dynasty buy for both contenders and rebuilders – with trade ideas based on the DLF Trade Analyzer: Pivot Up, Same Tier or Pivot Down.
Buying as a contender is all about winning the title now, while leaving the window open to compete again year after year. Buying as a rebuilder is all about making the right trades to maximize roster value next season and become a contender for a dynasty championship.
TIME CONTEXT AND STRATEGY
The NFL season is two weeks in and after underperforming players and season-ending injuries, it is time to start looking at what type of team you have. I know it is early but many times in dynasty leagues, you know if your team can contend, or if it is better to start the rebuild. Take advantage of either side and make sure to get as much value as possible and set up your team for the type of build you have moving forward.
As a manager, you do not want to be too desperate for a player and to keep your options open. You may think a player is not available and they are. Or a hot young player may not pan out this year but next year. So, take advantage of each situation and other managers who are quick to overreact.
CONTENDER BUY
Davante Adams, WR LV
You have to wonder if Adams regrets his decision to come to the Raiders, especially since his former college teammate Derek Carr is no longer on the team. Adams has been dominant for the last five years. He has finished in the top three of wide receivers in PPR formats four of the last five years. The one year he did not was mostly because he missed four games.
I have not been the biggest Jimmy Garoppolo fan and wondered how he would fair outside of the Kyle Shanahan offense. He only has 385 passing yards in two games, but he knows who to throw the ball to. Adams has 17 targets in two weeks even though he is near the lowest in yards per catch for his career.
The Raiders have not been able to run the ball with Josh Jacobs, so I see the team continuing to have to pass the ball. When will Adams fall off the age cliff? I think he still has elite production, at least this year and next year. The biggest thing you want in your top receivers is consistency and the ability to have huge weeks. Both are true for Adams, and I do not see that changing even on a team that looks destined for mediocrity.
Many people think that you want players on good offenses. This is true, but you can also get amazing production from teams that struggle to win games. They are not going to stop throwing to Adams regardless of who is under center for the Raiders. He is as sure of a thing as there is and if you are contending for a championship, he could put you over the top.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets
- Jordan Addison and 2024 fourth-round pick = Davante Adams
I do like Addison and his potential with the Vikings. This is a no-brainer for a contender though. If Justin Jefferson is there, Addison will never reach the potential of a top-five player. Fourth-round picks are not very likely to hit so that is a huge get for a contending team. You are getting a top WR1 for a fringe WR2/3 and a throw-away draft pick. Jump on this right away!
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal
- Drake London = Davante Adams
London has been a Devy darling and someone many thought would break out. He went from zero catches in week one to six catches for 67 yards and a touchdown in week two. I have no idea what Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder will do week to week. So now is the time to jump on the success of London. He obviously is the longer play in dynasty, but he will get nowhere near what Adams can do this year. This is definitely a short-term play but will give you an immediate upgrade.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset
- AJ Brown = Davante Adams, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook
A couple of years ago, this trade would never have happened. All three players would be considered top 30 dynasty assets. How times can change so quickly. Cook looks to be just another RB and Thielen is just a flex play now in Carolina. So this pretty much comes down to Adams for Brown. It is a huge upgrade right now with the struggles of Brown so far through two games. But I think by season end you will be trading a top 12 receiver for a top five receiver. That small upgrade can help a contender get over the top.
REBUILDER BUY
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB DET
Everyone was in love with Gibbs before the season and after he was drafted in the first round by the Lions. The signing of David Montgomery should have given people pause on the potential ceiling of Gibbs. After two games you can see how electric he can be, but they are not ready to make him a full-time player now. There was similar usage with D’Andre Swift but I believe Gibbs is a better player and the Lions drafted him in the top 15 picks of the first round.
In game two, Montgomery went down but Gibbs still only received seven carries. I think he can take on a larger number of touches per game. I think eventually he could be able to handle 18-24 total touches per game, but it is obvious that the Lions want to ease him into his rookie year. It is unclear what the status of Montgomery will be but the Lions this week signed Zonovan Knight. He was more of a bruiser in his time with the Jets last year. So while the potential is there, it looks like the big numbers may have to wait a year for Gibbs.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets
- Rachaad White and a 2024 first-round Pick = Jahmyr Gibbs
I love this pivot-up opportunity. Although I did like White as a prospect, he has been underwhelming and I am unsure what the Buccaneers will do on offense in the future despite their 2-0 start. Scoring a touchdown in game two of the season is the perfect time to sell high on White. Everyone including myself loves first-round picks, but it is such an unknown when the pick will be when you trade for it and also will the prospect hit. I think having the number one RB even on a mid-level offense will get someone’s attention. Add on a first-rounder and you have a premier piece in Gibbs to build for the future.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal
- Breece Hall = Jahmyr Gibbs
This is a tough one as both are good young backs who are very exciting. Hall is the back who, when healthy, will get more of the carries, but he is just off injury. The Jets offense is unknown with the QB situation, while the Lions look to have a much more potent offense for the next few years. In a rebuilding situation you can wait on Gibbs for a season and he in my opinion has the higher ceiling. He is in a better offense and is so electric in the open field and should turn into a PPR monster from the running back position.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset
- Christian McCaffrey, Tyler Boyd, 2024 third-round pick = Jahmyr Gibbs and 2024 first-round pick
I know giving up McCaffrey is a huge risk but remember we are rebuilding our team. The shelf life of a running back is limited, and McCaffrey is near the back end. Boyd is not going to be fantasy significant without injury to the Bengals’ WRs and a third-round pick is always a tossup. You get a young top-end asset in Gibbs and even at a late-first-round pick in 2024, you could be looking at receivers like Xavier Worthy out of Texas or Emeka Egbuka from Ohio State. That is a great one-two punch that could serve your team for the next five years.
SUMMARY
Both targets are on opposite spectrums, but that is how it happens in most dynasty trades. There is a team contending and a team looking to build for the future. I know many will say it is still early in the season. But you want to make the moves best for your team now before you lose any leverage you may have.
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