Dynasty Fantasy Football Contenders: Push for the Playoffs

Austin Ekeler

John DiBari Posted On November 28, 2022

One of my favorite things about playing in dynasty leagues, as opposed to redraft leagues, is that every team has its own strategy at any given time. This is never more evident as the fantasy playoffs loom ever closer. Most leagues have their playoff brackets begin in weeks 14 or 15, so you should continue to see team owners continue to evaluate their teams to decide which direction they’re heading and then make roster moves accordingly. Whether due to injuries, underperformance, or just a lousy roster, some teams have their annual fire sale, moving assets to good teams in exchange for draft picks or younger players as they attempt to rebuild.

On the other hand, and what we’ll be focusing on here, top teams realize how close they are to a championship and start acquiring assets as a contender playing to win now. As these teams push for a playoff berth, higher seeding or a bye in the playoffs, and hopefully a championship, what kind of strategies do we see deployed that we could use ourselves if we’re in that position too?

Timing is Everything

The earlier you can get your hands on good players, the more they’ll benefit your team. It’s not rocket science; 17 weeks of Austin Ekeler is better than three weeks of Austin Ekeler. Therefore, if you know early enough into the season that you have a strong team with a real chance at pushing for a title, it can’t hurt to make moves as early as possible. Additionally, adding good players earlier will help you in your quest for a postseason berth and jockeying for seeding in the playoffs.

If you can’t pull the trigger on deals early, the usual beginning window for heavy trading is around week 10 or 11. In a typical 12-team league, there are probably three or four teams locked in for the playoffs and another three or four that are eliminated while the remaining six-ish teams are trying to figure out who they are. If your league has a trade deadline, that is usually around this time as well, forcing teams to make decisions immediately. Once the deadline has passed, you’ll need to rely on the boneyard that is late-season waivers to help fill any holes in the playoffs- not a great position to be in. This article is assuming you play in a league without a trade deadline, which is becoming more and more common.

Capitalizing on late-season injuries and benchings is also very important. As of this writing, Melvin Gordon and Darrell Henderson both were recently cut, Davis Mills and Zach Wilson both were benched, and Matthew Stafford and Justin Fields both sustained potentially significant injuries a few days ago. These developments impact not only these individual players but their backups and supporting casts too. In regards to timing, if you were reading the tea leaves for weeks, you knew the Rams didn’t like Darrell Henderson or Cam Akers. Kyren Williams could’ve been acquired on the cheap for weeks as he toiled on injured reserve, but not anymore.

Is 2022 Different?

I only have purely anecdotal evidence, but in my 20-ish leagues and from what I’ve heard from other fantasy owners, there is much more parity than in years passed. This year, it seems like most leagues have two really good teams, two really bad teams, and eight teams around .500, all trying to squeeze into the playoffs. With so many teams thinking they have a chance at the playoffs, I have found the trade market to be very dry. And most of the bad teams are really, really bad, with very few players who would be helpful to any contenders. But, again, this has been my personal experience this year, and from what I’ve heard from others, they’re experiencing the same thing.

When to Pull the Trigger, or Should You?

As mentioned above, the earlier the better, and if you have a trade deadline, that creates a feeling of now-or-never that permeates all roster moves. In short, the answer is this: once you know you’re heading for the playoffs, you should do everything possible to reinforce your roster. If you’re happy with your starters as constructed, this is a great time to load up on handcuffs in case you get bitten by the injury bug. Either way, as other teams start to slide out of the playoff picture, it can’t hurt to kick the tires on their better players that could help strengthen your roster.

Sometimes the old saying “just because you can do something, doesn’t mean you should” rings true in fantasy football. If you have a roster that is already good enough to know you’ve locked up a playoff spot by this time, maybe you don’t need to add much. Don’t feel pressured to make a trade just for the sake of making a trade. Even if you load up on talent heading into the playoffs, it’s not crazy to see your team fall flat ahead of the finals. No matter how good your team has done up to the playoffs, once you’re in the big dance, there is an element of luck that you can’t control. If you have a strong roster in place, plus all of your future picks, you stand a good chance of loading up rookie talent and keeping your team competitive for years to come. If you get an opportunity to get a top-tier playmaker, by all means, add them to your roster, but there is no need to force anything.

What Types of Players to Target?

This is obviously unique to each individual team. If you’re lucky enough to have Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts in a superflex league, you probably don’t need to make a move at quarterback, whereas a team with Derek Carr and Kirk Cousins has room for improvement. Know your rosters and scoring, and make your moves accordingly. As far as specifics go, things will be unique to each team.

If you’re looking to upgrade on the cheap and not completely mortgage your future for this year, there are plenty of options that have emerged recently. Kyle Allen, Andy Dalton, and Sam Darnold suddenly appear poised to be starting quarterbacks for the rest of the season, and you could probably get each of them for a mid-to-late-round pick. Are they going to be explosive high-end options the rest of the way? Probably not, but you’re also not paying explosive, high-end prices either.

Kyren Williams and Latavius Murray both seem to be on track to be top-24 running backs until the end of the season, and they’ll significantly be cheaper than the Christian McCaffreys of the world if you’re just looking for an RB3/flex type of player. Unless you’re acquiring Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, I wouldn’t make any moves at tight end, as you can piece things together via the waiver wire at the position if you need to.

Know what you’re willing to pay before you start accepting or making offers. It’s easy to get caught up in the hype train once you think a move will put you over the top. Looking back at fantasypros.com’s top running backs and wide receivers during the fantasy playoffs last season, you’ll see plenty of outliers that nobody thought would be there. Imagine making a trade for Leonard Fournette or Keenan Allen a year ago and seeing them both outplayed by Sony Michel and K.J. Osbourne. It happens, so temper your expectations even if you are paying a premium for established studs.

Be sure to look at players’ strength of schedule and matchups before making any deals that seem great on paper. For example, maybe the star you’re acquiring has played bottom-half matchups through week 12, but now he’s looking at his five toughest matchups to close out the year.

Before You Make A Trade

One quick note before you actually make a trade. Some fantasy leagues have playoffs starting in week 13, and many start in week 14. If you’re looking for a player to help you in week 13, Arizona and Carolina have a bye week. In week 14, you’ll be without Falcons, Beras, Packers, Colts, Saints, and Commanders players. So don’t get all excited about adding Justin Fields, Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Terry McLaurin, and Chris Olave to your team only to find out you’ll have nobody to start in week 14 during the first round of the playoffs.

What to Pay

I’ve mentioned targeting lower-tier players for lower-tier prices, and while that’s always an option if you want to hold on to your early draft picks, there is another option. Since so many people have rookie fever, someone is always willing to take your draft picks for their veterans. So if you can get a bonafide star at any position, it’s almost always in your best interest to move your draft picks and bring in the stars.
No matter what you think of your abilities to hit on rookies in your rookie drafts, you’re probably overestimating it. Here are the top 15 picks over the last six rookie drafts according to DLF’s ADP:

Using rough estimates, first-round picks hit 50% of the time, second-round picks hit approximately 30% of the time, and after that, from the third-round and beyond, you’re basically playing darts. If you can get a young (or relatively young) top-24 player for picks, you should absolutely make it happen. Let’s say, for example, someone is willing to give you Nick Chubb or Stefon Diggs for a couple of first-round picks. The odds of you finding a replacement level player with those picks is 50/50. The odds of you finding the next Chubb or Diggs are essentially zero. Take the known commodity when you can. If you get the itch and want to get back into the draft, someone will be willing to take players off your hands during the draft.

With such a low rate of success selecting draft picks, don’t be afraid to move them if you’re going to get top-notch players back in the deal.

Don’t Forget Your League Settings

One final thing to remember is your league settings and format. Sometimes you’re in so many leagues that you see an offer come into your inbox that seems too good to be true and you instantly hit accept. If you’re in a 14-team league where teams can carry two devy players, your rookie draft will potentially be missing the top 28 rookies. In that setting, the first-round pick you’re getting or giving isn’t worth nearly as much as it would be in a league that isn’t devy depleted. In IDP leagues, the picks gain a bit of value, assuming the scoring is balanced as end-of-the-first-round offensive players often fall to the mid or late second, for example. Not all picks are created equal from league to league.

Hopefully, everyone here at DLF has helped you throughout the season, and now you’re in a position to push for a championship. There are many options and directions for you to take at this point in the season, especially when you’re playoff bound. If you’ve been struggling with what to do next, or how to approach your roster construction with the playoff on deck, I hope this was helpful to you. Good luck if you’re heading to the playoffs, and enjoy the off-season if you’re not.