Dynasty Fantasy Football Target Share: Week Six
Week six is done, and with it, we have our first sample of data that is better on a per-game basis. Six games of data are enough to trust per-game over season-long numbers.
I’m collecting the weekly data throughout the season and posting it on a sheet.
Now, let’s get on with it.
The Signal
Week six brings us to an interesting point in the season where points scored outweigh potential points in terms of predicting future production. What does that mean? Basically, points per game (PPG) is better than volume statistics like expected points (EPG) and share (like EP%).
Below is the percentage of players who finished in the top 12 (top five at tight end) if they were currently ranked in the top 12 each week, since 2018.
That means our top 12 wide receivers in PPG right now are much more likely to finish in the top 12 by the season’s end. As we said last week, there are five players right now who look like locks to be WR1s this year. We can also add AJ Brown and Ja’Marr Chase to that list this week.
The Marquise Brown question will have to remain unanswered this year because of his injury making him essentially out for the fantasy season (six weeks) at best. Michael Thomas is also currently projected out for at least another week.
This doesn’t mean volume stops being relevant, however, as the players who finish in the top 12 but were not yet ranking in the top 12 in PPG still showed up in previous seasons through their volume. Let’s just take 2021 as an example:
All six players who finished inside the top 12 but were ranking outside by week six averaged over 20% target share, 13 EPG, and 14% EP (except Hunter Renfrow and Chris Godwin). As a rule, looking for volume and considering inefficiency (FPOE) is our best path forward.
Our List
I’ve filtered the position by those thresholds and then dug down again into the averages over the last three weeks to show what’s going on most recently. The players we’ve been highlighting since week three (week four for DK Metcalf) still show up.
Those I’ve underlined continue to be the “best bets” for upside to finish out the rest of the 2022 fantasy season.
However, let’s consider Chris Olave in our rookie section in more depth.
Rookie Snapshot
Tyquan Thornton returned from his pre-season injury with a bang last week. This may have caught a lot of people’s attention. However – especially considering Jaylen Waddle’s late emergence into the top 12 last year – I think the consistent improvement of Chris Olave is worth repeating.
While Drake London and Garrett Wilson continue to struggle on floundering passing games, Olave has emerged and sustained a target share of over 20% with, for the most part, Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas on the field. His EP is similar to Garrett Wilson’s, but unlike Wilson, he has made good on that volume and even outperformed it (FPOE).
All three look like winning rookie picks in the 2022 rookie draft and should be valued as such moving forward.
Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs, and George Pickens offer a second tier of hits. I think if any of these three are attainable for a second-round rookie pick in 2023 or a second plus a one-year fill-in running back (or deeper sleeper) it would be an absolute steal for your roster.
Anyway, that’s about all I have time for right now. Let me know what you think, and I’ll see you next week.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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