2020 Dynasty Capsule: Tennessee Titans
Every year we give our premium content members a team-by-team, player-by-player look at the NFL season that was. The coverage will be in-depth, but because the Dynasty Capsule series begins immediately after the season, we won’t use it to discuss free agency or the draft. Come see us in early May once Mr. Irrelevant is off the board for another 32-article series giving you the same detailed discussion you’ll see below.
Buckle up dynasty fans, because you’re about to be reminded why our motto is, “There is no off-season.”
The Titans’ Cinderella run was ended abruptly by the buzz saw that was the Kansas City Chiefs. The run they went on was one for the ages. Tennessee went into both Foxborough and Baltimore as underdogs and came out on top in both games. There are question marks surrounding the quarterback and running back positions, though, with several big-name player contracts expiring.
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (ADP: 189.33, QB18)
Age: 31
The Titans have some decisions to make at quarterback. Both Tannehill and Marcus Mariota are free agents. All indications are that Tennessee is ready to pay the former Dolphins quarterback, as they should. The converted wideout had an impressive stretch after being named the starter week seven, averaging 25.5 points per game. He was the QB4 over that time span (courtesy of Draft Buddy).
Despite playing in just 10 games, the Texas A & M grad managed a QB17 finish. He also was QB10 in points per game. This screams value at his current ADP. People will be scared off by Derrick Henry’s presence (assuming he signs back in Nashville), but it is easy to forget that the veteran quarterback has some rushing chops of his own. The difference between him and Drew Brees was less than one-and-a-half points per game. Take the discount.
Marcus Mariota (ADP: 235.33, QB37)
Age: 26
The former second overall pick (2015) is all but done in Nashville. Mariota started the season off with a bang, throwing three touchdowns against the Cleveland Browns. Subsequently, after a series of disappointing outings, a putrid performance against the Denver Broncos in week six was the nail in his coffin as a Titan.
Even before his benching, Mariota did not hold much dynasty value, peaking as QB13 in 2016 (see new DLF tool Yearly Data App) and performing poorly in each of his other three seasons. There are rumors that Bears’ GM Ryan Pace was enamored with the Oregon grad in 2015, so Chicago could be a potential landing spot as competition for Mitchell Trubisky. Regardless of where he lands, his value leaves a lot to be desired.
Logan Woodside (ADP: N/A)
Age: 25
The Titans signed Woodside to a futures contract on January 20th. With Mariota all but gone, they are likely to either bring in a veteran backup or draft a quarterback with one of their six picks in April.
Running Back
Derrick Henry (ADP: 17.83, RB8)
Age: 25
The bruising running back improved his fantasy finish for the fourth consecutive year. He ended as the RB2 in 2019. In fact, from week ten on he was the RB1, besting Christian McCaffrey over that stretch. Henry is a free agent entering next season, but is fully expected back in Tennessee.
Using the Trade Finder from DLF, Henry’s value appears to vary but is generally high. The Alabama grad is being traded straight up for a first rounder, but also going for a first rounder, Devin Singletary, and Hakeem Butler.
He will certainly be a polarizing player all off-season. One thing is for certain, his ADP has skyrocketed from this time last year.
Dion Lewis (ADP: 206.00, RB77)
Age: 29
Barring an injury to Henry, there is little value in owning the aging running back. Even if the starter were to suffer an injury, there is no guarantee that Lewis would step into a lead role. He finished as the RB58 in 2019, behind the likes of Mike Boone, Jeff Wilson, and Jordan Wilkins. It has been quite a fall from grace for the former New England Patriot; he managed an RB17 finish in Foxborough during the 2017 season. You can take a shot on him in deeper leagues on the off chance that Henry does not sign back with the Titans, but again, even then the Pitt grad is not promised a large role.
Dalyn Dawkins (Futures Contract)
Age: 25
The former Colorado State Ram had a nice senior season. In all the Purdue transfer accounted for 1,709 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns in 2017. Since then he has seen just 11 carries for the Titans over two seasons. Dawkins can safely be left on waivers.
Shaun Wilson (Futures Contract)
Age: 24
The second-year pro from Duke did not see the field in 2019. This came after logging just six carries in 2018 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There is nothing to see here.
Wide Receiver
AJ Brown (ADP: 23.33, WR15)
Age: 22
The mammoth wideout finished the season as the top rookie at the position. Brown finished as the WR14 in PPR formats. After a somewhat slow start to the season, the Ole Miss alum was actually a WR1 from week six on. The breakout should be a surprise to no one. Using the College Market Share tool now available from DLF, we see that Brown was poised to have a promising NFL career from the get go.
The dynasty value is off-the-charts good here. He will still only be 23 when the season starts, and Tannehill seems to enjoy peppering the big wideout with targets (when the Titans do throw). Brown saw 32.9 percent of targets that went to the team’s wide receiver position in 2019. The arrow is pointing straight up.
Corey Davis (ADP: 130, WR49)
Age: 25
One has to wonder if the Western Michigan grad will ever live up to the NFL hype. Davis had his second straight WR3 finish. With the aforementioned Brown now in the picture, maybe his upside is capped at WR2. We have been waiting for a breakout for three seasons now. While he has shown flashes, the consistency is just not there.
Now may be the time to cut bait and get what you can for the soon-to-be fourth-year pro. Looking at DLF’s Dynasty Trade Analyzer, you could swing a deal for someone like Darius Slayton. The New York Giants rookie actually outscored Davis by nearly 50 points in 2019. Take advantage of the name recognition and take the player with the higher upside.
Adam Humphries (ADP: 232.17, WR94)
Age: 26
An ankle injury cost the slot receiver four games in 2019, causing him to finish as the WR62 in PPR formats. It was a disappointing performance coming off of a 2018 season that saw him finish as the WR24 with Tampa Bay. The truth is the Titans do not pass the ball enough to support Brown, Davis, and Humphries. Throw some offers out there and see if you can get a third-round pick back for him. Using the trade analyzer at DLF, we can see that seems to be about market value for Clemson alum.
Tajae Sharpe (ADP: 234.33)
Age: 25
The former UMass standout may have some appeal if he were to land elsewhere. Sharpe is a free agent and would be wise to explore other options. As with Humphries, the Titans just do not throw the ball enough for him to sustain value.
The potential is there. As a senior, the talented wideout caught 111 balls for 1,319 yards and five touchdowns. However, playing only 44 percent of snaps in a run-first offense limits his opportunities. His value is tied sharply (no pun intended) to where he signs if he decides to depart Nashville.
Kalif Raymond (ADP: N/A)
Age: 25
The small school speedster saw only 10 percent of snaps in 2019. While the Holy Cross grad has some big play potential, he does not belong on any rosters for dynasty purposes. Raymond will also soon be 26 and just has not shown enough to warrant ownership at this point.
Cody Hollister (ADP: N/A)
Age: 26
A practice squad player until week ten, Hollister only was on the field for 1% of the offensive snaps for the Titans. Hollister graduated from Arkansas in 2016 but did not see an NFL field until this season. Safely leave him on the waiver wire.
Darius Jennings (ADP: N/A)
Age: 27
A career practice squad player, Jennings has just 27 receptions in 28 games played over three seasons between Cleveland and Tennessee. He will also be 28 years old when the season starts. Clearly there is no value here.
Rashard Davis (ADP: N/A)
Age: 25
The small receiver out of James Madison is more of a return specialist and saw action in only one contest in 2019. Davis did catch his lone target in that game for 16 yards but is best left at the end of the waiver wire in all leagues.
Trevion Thompson (Futures Contract)
Age: 24
The former National Champion Clemson Tiger signed a futures contract with Tennessee on January 20th. Thompson never saw more than 21 receptions in a season while in college. One would not expect that to change at the NFL level. The two touchdowns scored in four years is uninspiring as well. Let us move on.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith (ADP: 135.33, TE19)
Age: 24
It was a third straight improvement on the fantasy finish for Smith in 2019. The Florida International grad ended as the TE21 in PPR formats. The learning curve is steep for the position, and with Delanie Walker set to be 36 when the 2020 season starts, the young small-school standout could be poised for big things next season.
Depending on your dynasty strategies and philosophies, now may be the best time to sell Jonnu. As evidenced by ADP data courtesy of DLF, his value is higher than it has been in well over a year. With Brown’s arrival on the scene at wide receiver, one has to wonder how much of a target share Smith may see. Now may be the time to see if there is an owner in your league buying the hype.
Delanie Walker (ADP: 239.25, TE39)
Age: 35
Due to injuries, the veteran tight end has played in just eight games the past two seasons in Tennessee. As mentioned above, the former 49er will be 36 when the season starts. The Titans can cut him with a little bit of a hit to the dead money part of the cap, but would save over six-and-a-half million dollars in doing so (data courtesy of Over the Cap).
With Tannehill and Henry being free agents, there is a chance they will need this money to pay up. With a young Smith and other capable players at the position already on the roster for a fraction of the costs, one can connect the dots to the aging star all but being done. There is not much value here.
Anthony Firkser (ADP: 239.50)
Age: 25
The young tight end is a free agent after this season. Over the past two seasons he has only seen 18 percent and 20 percent of the snaps respectively. The Harvard grad also only has 33 catches and two touchdowns over that span. Even if Walker were to leave and Firkser to sign back in Nashville, there is little to no value here.
MyCole Pruitt (ADP: 238.83)
Age: 27
As with Firkser, the vet is a free agent entering the off-season. Pruitt did see a 44 percent snap share in 2019, but, as mentioned multiple times, the Titans just do not pass the ball enough to sustain back-of-the-roster players such as Pruitt. The Southern Illinois alum will also be 28 when the season starts. There just is not any upside here.
Parker Hesse (Futures Contract)
Age: 24
Hesse is a defensive player by trade, but Mike Vrabel is giving him a shot by signing the versatile athlete to a futures contract on January 20th. Hey, he went to Iowa and we all know what tight ends from Iowa can do, right? But seriously, it is a name to – at the very least – keep in mind entering off-season activities and training camps. Value has come from stranger places.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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