Dynasty Team Transformation: Today I Traded Patrick Mahomes

Many dynasty owners believe Patrick Mahomes is the top asset to own in a superflex dynasty league. In a superflex league, top quarterbacks often cost a premium. That is due to two primary reasons. First, in a superflex, it is optimal to roster three quarterbacks. Second, in a standard 12-team superflex, not every team can roster three quarterbacks. Thus, the laws of supply and demand control, raising the costs of quarterbacks.

In some leagues, it may be particularly difficult to pry that third quarterback away, as many teams are wary of giving up their own depth at the position, and others may take the strategy of “hoarding” quarterbacks to manipulate their league’s quarterback market value.

Regardless, if possible, and as long as the price is reasonable, superflex owners should aim to roster three quarterbacks. This is because on average, quarterbacks score more than players of another position, and owners should try to ensure that they have a quarterback in the superflex slot each and every week. Rostering three quarterbacks allows superflex owners to start their third quarterback on bye weeks or in the event of injury. It also allows those owners to make lineup decisions at the quarterback position based on their matchups.

So why would anyone in their right mind trade away Mahomes in a superflex dynasty league? A 25-year-old who many say has a chance, when all is said and done, to surpass Tom Brady as the greatest quarterback of all time. An asset, widely regarded as having unmatched value. Well, today, I did. Let me tell you why.

Team Background

This team was drafted in the middle of the year, right around week seven and eight. My strategy was to go very young. I wanted to compete in a two to three-year window, and wanted that window to be long and sustainable. Knowing that the 2021 draft class was incredibly strong, I targeted the top running backs and receivers from that class as well as several top assets that came from the 2018 and 2019 draft classes. You can see my team before any trades were made in the chart below.

The First Trade

My team’s transformation process all began when one owner in my league approached me repeatedly, inquiring about Jerry Jeudy. I wasn’t eager to trade him, and made that known.

After declaring for the 2020 draft, many analysts touted Jeudy as the top receiver in one of the most talented draft classes in recent memory. I remember watching tape pre-draft, and being stunned by Jeudy’s body control, field vision, route running, and intelligent running style. Before the draft, and still to this day, I believe that Jeudy is a can’t-miss prospect.

However, every player has a price, and my trade partner was aggressive in his pursuit. Eventually, we were able to come to an agreement. I sent Jeudy, McFarland and a 2021 fourth-round pick in exchange for DJ Moore. This deal changed my outlook on my own team. In Moore, I now have a receiver that is only a year older than Jeudy, but is far more established.

In his second year, Moore finished as the WR19, despite missing a few games. This year, Moore is outpacing his per-game production from last year. Last year, Moore had a 16-game pace of 67 receptions for 1,232 yards and six touchdowns. This year, his 16-game pace stands at 69 receptions for 1,299 yards and five touchdowns. At 23 years old, that high-end year to year consistency is great to see. Moore has seen actual improvement from year two to year three, despite having to adjust to a new coach, new scheme, and new quarterback.

That is a lot of change for a young receiver to adjust to, especially when they are still developing their own skillset. His accomplishments this year, while facing so much adversity, gives me hope that his situation and production will continue to improve. Over time, Moore’s chemistry with his quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, should improve. Additionally, coach Matt Rhule has already begun to show a better understanding of how to maximize Moore’s production. Hopefully, that trend continues. Lastly, Curtis Samuel, another emerging wide-receiver for the Panthers, is set for free agency. If he leaves, which many expect will be the case, more targets will be available for Moore. All in all, there is a lot to like about Moore’s current and future situation.

When evaluating this trade, I preferred Moore’s situation. I viewed Moore as a player with a much higher floor than Jeudy, while having the same potential. McFarland is a talented flier, one who I can see getting an opportunity. However, I thought the difference between Moore and Jeudy was far greater than McFarland. I hit accept, and the team transformation began.

What DJ Moore Meant for My Team’s Outlook

After that trade, I now had a solid, young, top-end receiver at the top of my depth chart. One that could help me compete now and in the future. The addition of Moore, as well as the progression of some of my other young assets, made my team surprisingly ready to compete as soon as next year. My new starting lineup featured Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield, Josh Jacobs, D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks, JK Dobbins, Darius Slayton, and Noah Fant.

While that lineup is exciting and full of potential, there was a lot of downside. In particular, I was concerned with the uncertainty of the usage of my young assets. I also had concerns about two older players with major injury concerns in Brandin Cooks and Todd Gurley.

Swift and Dobbins’ usage moving forward is unpredictable. Swift will have a new coaching staff, and we won’t have any idea on how Swift will be used until that coaching decision is made. Dobbins plays for John Harbaugh, who has typically utilized a committee approach in his backfields. He has, however, leaned on Dobbins as of late. To be clear, I fully expect Swift and Dobbins to emerge as workhorses for their teams.

Todd Gurley has seen a consistent decline in production and playing time this year. His injury profile is well known. Cooks has been one of the most consistent players in football over the past half-decade (except for his injury-riddled 2019). However, Cooks has had a slew of concussions in his career, which is definitely a reason to have significant concern as a dynasty owner. I wanted value for those players but knew that their production value to me was likely worth more than their market value.

Older players tend to be difficult to trade. I’m a firm believer that any asset can be moved for value – you just need to find the right deal. Pairing an older asset with a more desirable asset is a common strategy that I use to accomplish that goal.

To recap, moving forward I wanted to shake up my running back group. Additionally, I wanted to reduce my injury exposure and offload some aging assets for value. My goals were to improve my team’s competitiveness immediately, while preserving a strong core of young players, structuring my team to ensure that I would be competitive for the long run.

That is quite a tall task.

The Second Trade

As I began thinking about my next move, I knew that an important goal was to build my team around four top running backs, with secure roles, who were all 23 years old or younger. That kind of asset does not typically come cheap, and it would be difficult to accomplish without trading one of my own top assets. My four most valuable assets were Mahomes, Jacobs, Swift and Dobbins. Moving one of the running backs would be moving in the opposite direction of my stated goal. Enter Mahomes in trade discussions.

The Kansas City prodigy has immense value. In fact, most would charge more than two league-average, or better, starting quarterbacks for the young gun-slinger. I thought to myself, what if I could replace Mahomes with an above-average quarterback, while picking up an undervalued young star running back? Maybe I could even use Mahomes to get value for the aging assets in the same deal?

One of the owners that reached out to me had Miles Sanders. A quarterback who fit the mold of what I was looking for was also on his roster – Ryan Tannehill. Sanders is considered a top 15 back by most, and a top ten back by many. Tannehill is widely regarded as a top 15 quarterback in his own right. The initial framework for a deal was there. I’d significantly downgrade at quarterback, while dramatically improving at running back.

A big factor in my evaluation of this trade was per-game point differentials. Cost per point is one way of viewing this evaluation tactic, and is particularly useful when trading top assets. Since there are not many players who are able to produce those extra few points that put them in that elite tier, those last few points cost a premium. However, it might be prudent for your team to spend less on less valuable players. By doing so, you can use your team capital more efficiently, adding more points in the aggregate, rather than through consolidation. Simply put, many times you can spend less to gain more by avoiding paying a premium to move up into that top tier, and instead spreading out your wealth.

The per-game point differential between Mahomes and Tannehill is fairly significant at about six points per game. However, the point differential between Sanders and Gurley is also significant at about five points per game. Looking forward, Tannehill likely has several years left of his current production and his market value should hold for at least another one to two years. Meanwhile, the other older asset in the deal, Gurley, is borderline unusable now and likely valueless in the near future. Therefore, the point differential is nearly neutral for current production, but I’d now have two sustainable starting assets moving forward instead of one.

Sanders and Tannehill, however, were not enough value for me to move Mahomes. I needed more. After much haggling, I agreed to include Todd Gurley, Deebo Samuel, a 2022 second-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, and 2023 third-round pick in exchange for his addition of Christian Kirk, a 2021 first-round pick (projected sixth overall), and a 2022 first-round pick.

Now, I’m very high on Samuel, but his frequent injuries are concerning. I very much believe in the talent. He is electric with the ball in his hands, and his usage gives him a particularly high floor. However, that first-round pick would likely be one of Najee Harris, Ja’Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, Rondale Moore or Rashod Bateman. All of those assets are likely worth more to most dynasty owners than Samuel. Additionally, I believe that Kirk and a 2022 first are worth more than Gurley and a 2022 second, 2023 second, and 2023 third-round picks. An important detail to note about the swap of 2022 picks is that, as of now, the 2022 draft class is viewed as particularly top-heavy, making first-round picks even more valuable relative to their second-round counterparts.

The total deal was Patrick Mahomes, Todd Gurley, Deebo Samuel, 2022 second, 2023 second, and 2023 third-round pick in exchange for Ryan Tannehill, Miles Sanders, Christian Kirk, 2021 first, and 2022 first. In this deal, I believe that I lost a little bit of value, but made my roster stronger.

I accomplished all of my goals. I kept my team young. I built my team around four top running backs, all with secure roles moving forward, and all under the age of 23. I also received an above-average quarterback. On top of that, I offloaded Gurley for decent value. While Kirk is certainly a downgrade from Samuel, I’d also be receiving two first-round picks with significant value, both of whom could return a better player than Samuel.

But I wasn’t ready to stop tinkering with my roster.

The Third Trade

After trading Mahomes, my starting lineup included Tannehill, Mayfield, Jacobs, Swift, Moore, Cooks, Kirk, Swift, Dobbins, and Fant.

I looked at that lineup and felt really good about three of those backs heading into next year. While I am very high on Dobbins, I’m unsure whether the Ravens will continue to insist on using a committee approach moving forward. If I was going to switch out one of my backs, he was going to be the one to go. But if I was going to trade him, I wanted to make sure I used him to get value for the other asset I wanted to move – Cooks.

As I thought about what running back to target to replace Dobbins, two running backs came to mind: Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor. Both of those backs are currently worth a good deal more than Dobbins. However, Barkley is viewed by many to be the 1B to Christian McCaffrey’s 1A, and I am personally very high on Taylor. I have Taylor as a top-five dynasty back and the top rookie running back of the 2020 class. Barkley was particularly attractive to me because unlike Mahomes, the cost of acquiring him didn’t require quite the premium for that top-tier production due to the major injury that has kept him on the sidelines all year.

So around 1AM, after recovering from the Raiders loss, I decided to throw out a few offers without negotiating. The one that was accepted was Dobbins, Cooks, Fant, and the two firsts I received from my prior deal in exchange for Saquon Barkley, Laviska Shenault, and TJ Hockenson.

I prefer all three players I received over all three players I gave up by a considerable amount. When evaluating, I thought Barkley was worth at least Dobbins and the 2021 first. While the other first may be too much for the other two upgrades, I was receiving the right assets for my roster, and assets that I am personally very high on. I have Barkley as a top-four dynasty back, Shenault as a top 25 dynasty receiver, and Hockenson as my third-ranked tight end. In contrast, I have Dobbins as a top 15 back, Cooks as a top 50 wide receiver, and Fant as my seventh-ranked tight end. All three upgrades, to me, were significant. You can see my team through three trades in the chart below, but if you think I was ready to stop moving, think again.

The Fourth and Final Trade

After completely blowing up my team, I was very happy with the results. At quarterback, I had a solid, consistent veteran who I can count on for a few years. Behind him, I had two young quarterbacks who are developing nicely. My running back group was headlined by Jacobs, Barkley, Swift, and Sanders, four young superstars who could carry my team on their own. At receiver, my team is thin, but Moore gives the team some semblance of a floor, and the groups potential is high. As for my tight end group, it leaves much to be desired. At the top is Hockenson, a young star at the position. Owning Hockenson makes me comfortable having little depth at the position. Regardless of matchup, I’d plan on starting Hockenson. On the year, Hockenson has at least 50 yards or a touchdown in all but two games. He is a must-start tight end.

I would have been happy to stop there, but with Barkley aboard, I knew I could regain some value that I may have lost on the prior trades. It’s important to know the general market of your big players. Knowing that many still have Barkley as a top two to four running back, I thought that I’d be able to once again trade away a player who comes at a premium, even though I didn’t pay that premium.

The other running back I targeted in trade three was Jonathan Taylor. I value Taylor as much as Barkley. The owner of Taylor, however, did not. He notably had Deshaun Watson, who I have ranked as a top-five quarterback. However, Watson has recently seen his market value dip. Unfortunately for Watson and the Texans, they’ve recently seen their wide-receiver depth evaporate. After trading DeAndre Hopkins for a ridiculously low return in the off-season, the Texans lost their next best option mid-year in Will Fuller. But Watson won’t be weaponless forever, and we have all seen what he’s capable of.

Meanwhile, Tannehill, who was dramatically increasing my team’s average age, is in the midst of a career year. As the old saying goes “sell high, buy low.” As you can probably tell, that is the strategy I took with the fourth trade. It wasn’t hard to sell Tannehill or Barkley either, their numbers are great because both players are great. I argued that the drop off in production between a receiverless Watson and Tannehill is not that significant, while the difference between a rookie running back and one of Barkley’s caliber is significant.

Personally, I believe that Taylor has a very high floor and the potential to become a Barkley caliber player. Additionally, while I do believe the statement I made regarding Watson and Tannehill, Watson is significantly young, and therefore, much more valuable. I would have done the deal as a straight-up two for two, but if you can get more, get more. I managed to squeeze out a future second and we had a deal. I would send Tannehill, Jacob Eason, Barkley, and Jalen Guyton in exchange for Watson, Taylor and a 2023 second-round pick. Below you can see my team’s new construction after that final deal.

Trade Recap

Overall there were four trades:

First Trade:

Gave: Jerry Jeudy, Anthony McFarland, and a 2021 fourth-round pick

Received: DJ Moore

Second Trade:

Gave: Patrick Mahomes, Todd Gurley, Deebo Samuel, 2022 second, 2023 second, and 2023 third-round picks

Received: Ryan Tannehill, Miles Sanders, Christian Kirk, 2021 first, and 2022 first-round picks

Third Trade:

Gave: JK Dobbins, Brandin Cooks, Noah Fant, 2021 first, and 2022 first-round picks (from trade three)

Received: Saquon Barkley, Laviska Shenault, and TJ Hockenson

Fourth Trade:

Gave: Ryan Tannehill, Jacob Eason, Saquon Barkley, and Jalen Guyton

Received: Deshaun Watson, Jonathan Taylor, and a 2023 second

All four trades combined by position:

QB:

In: Deshaun Watson

Out: Patrick Mahomes, Jacob Eason

RB:

In: Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders

Out: JK Dobbins, Todd Gurley, Anthony McFarland

WR:

In: DJ Moore, Laviska Shenault, Christian Kirk

Out: Jerry Jeudy, Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Guyton

TE:

In: TJ Hockenson

Out: Noah Fant

Picks:

In: None

Out: 2021 fourth, 2022 second, 2023 third

Conclusion

Why did I trade Patrick Mahomes? To make my team better. Through this sequence of trades, I fortified my running back depth, reduced my injury risk, offloaded aging assets, and managed to still have a young top-five quarterback on my roster. I didn’t lose much depth and the net pick loss was minimal. The key in this transformation process was knowing how to sell the pieces I was buying. By doing so, I was able to take advantage of market fluctuations, maximizing the value and talent that I was able to add to my team.