IDP Waiver Wire: Week 14
Notable IDP Assets on Bye this week
Free at last, free at last! No more bye weeks!
The gist of this column is simple: finding players who are either long-term dynasty fliers OR quality one-week rentals- you’ll tend to know which is which from my write-ups.
To uncover these players, I come up with suggestions going down two main avenues. The first measure will actually be a metric I invented, called Disruption Score (updated for the 2019-2020 season here). This metric specifically measures which players were most efficient at getting behind the line of scrimmage and affecting the quarterback’s normal motions, therefore “disrupting” the play. This metric has the most weight for DE/DT, but it can also show us which linebackers have multi-sack upside throughout the season if you are in big-play scoring formats.
Secondly, I will purely assess the matchups for the upcoming week and give my best dart throws for that week. It is definitely the least concrete analysis I have posted, but a large part of fantasy football is going with your guys (and it did very well in this article last year), so this is a section dedicated to that.
Year-to-Date waiver wire standings:
Disruption Score Adds~ 19 Hits, 13 Average, 11 Busts
Matchup-Based Adds~ 28 Hits, 16 Average, 12 Busts (Tuitt pending MNF)
*“Busts” will be considered as players who ranked outside of the top 60 of their position for that week, “Hits” will be anyone who finishes within the top 25 of their position, and “Average” will be anyone in between.*
Without further ado, let’s do this thing!
Week 13 Observations
- Kenneth Murray Jr. looked impressive on Sunday. Sure, there will be few games where he simply gets the ball run straight to him all day long, but he is taking a commanding share of the defense and he is starting to develop into a top 16 dynasty linebacker.
- Troy Reeder continues to ball out in Micah Kiser’s absence. Go grab him if you still can and enjoy his free LB1 production for at least one more week.
- Carson Wentz and Jalen Hurts were sacked seven (!) times on Sunday. Next up? Cameron Jordan, Marcus Davenport, David Onyemata, and Trey Hendrickson. Yikes.
- Mr. Irrelevant is turning into quite the productive player late in the 2020 season. I’m not sure about his long-term value just yet, but stash Tae Crowder if you can.
- Nick Vigil has had two solid outings in a row, but do not rush to the waiver wire to grab him. He will return to the bench when Kyzir White is off the COVID-19 list.
- Thanksgiving Day hero Tyrell Adams had 12 total tackles yesterday, but only four were solo tackles. Just brutal, but I’m not worried about his outlook in the playoffs. Fire him up as a top-five linebacker.
- DeForest Buckner was on a whole new level today, nearly doubling his season sack total in one day against Houston. If you lost last week because he had to sit, he surely paid you back this week.
- Clelin Ferrell sighting! Even against the Jets, I didn’t see a game like this coming from him this year. I just can’t get a firm grasp on him…
- If you are among the many IDP players who tweeted me devastated about Eric Kendricks’ calf injury, I certainly feel your pain. Reports as of now (Sunday night) seem to indicate it isn’t a serious injury for him, but I just hope his surprise inactive didn’t cost you your entire season.
- Larry Ogunjobi sack! For those who have read my articles all season long, you know how happy this makes me.
- In a week where the Dolphins got a whopping seven sacks, somehow Emmanuel Ogbah wasn’t able to get any of them!! He did manage to get five total quarterback hits, so we just have to trust in the process over results (but man, he could’ve/should’ve had an incredible day!).
Before you dig into this column, here are a few of the usual IDP starters that have tough matchups ahead in the first round of the playoffs who you MAY consider benching for a dart throw found below (I know, I know…it’s the playoffs! But just because they got you here, doesn’t always mean they’ll be able to bring you across the finish line either)–
DL: Romeo Okwara, Trey Flowers if healthy, Jerry Hughes, Ifeadi Odenigbo, DJ Wonnum
LB: Eric Wilson, Jerome Baker, Kyle Van Noy, Robert Spillane, Vince Williams
DB: Chuck Clark, DeShon Elliott, Darius Slay
Disruption Score Waiver Adds
As we close out the regular season, here are the top 25 players by Disruption Score in the 2020-21 season (minimum 20 tackles). Hendrickson got another sack against the Falcons yesterday, which will post his score even higher, but if he keeps this pace he may post a top ten Disruption Score all time! While it has certainly been nice to finally see Derek Barnett accumulate some sacks and give us a glimpse of the player we have been waiting so patiently for him to become, his Disruption Score shows he actually should be producing at an even higher level. He is a firm hold (and maybe even a buy low) in dynasty heading into next season.
Defensive Line
Steven Means, DE ATL (Season Disruption Score: 15.33 ~ DL #39 overall)
Means is a player I have written about in the past, and have been trying to convince myself not to write about him again for the past few weeks; however, I cannot overlook his production anymore. Injuries to teammates have set Means up for an expanded workload, and he looks quick and powerful while getting an upper hand on the offensive linemen in his way with ease. I’ve scooped up Means in every league I can, with a favorable matchup against Justin Herbert and the Chargers next week.
Jarran Reed, DT SEA (Season Disruption Score: 13.54 ~ DL #46 overall)
Reed is more of a “play him if you are desperate for a defensive tackle” option, but Jarran Reed is a player I have grown used to starting in many of my DT-featured leagues. While Reed has been quiet as of late this season, his Disruption Score proves there is an influx coming soon, and what better way to get on track than walking into a game against the Jets, fresh off an embarrassing loss.
Linebacker
Alex Highsmith, LB PIT (Disruption Score: 8.17 ~ LB #28 overall)
We have not been able to see Highsmith in a full-time starting role as of the time this article is written, but as an NC State graduate, I have actually been tuned into Alex Highsmith’s game since his early college days. Needless to say, when this Steelers fan saw his name pop up as our third-round selection in this year’s draft, I ran a victory lap around my house. I think Pittsburgh was going to let Dupree walk after his franchise tag season anyway, and Highsmith has flashed in the few opportunities he has gotten so far this season. I am excited to see what this kid will do with a job all to himself, and nobody needs to tell you just how valuable a pass-rushing role on the Pittsburgh Steelers is for your fantasy team. I would not start him until we see solid production, but stash him now before it is too late. He is legit.
Matchup-Based Waiver Adds
Defensive Line
Jack Crawford, DT TEN (Week 14 @ Jacksonville)
Upon news of Jadeveon Clowney’s season-ending injury, Crawford becomes the next man up for a team that has been able to get to the quarterback fairly well as the season has progressed. Even in a tough matchup against a stout Cleveland offensive line, Crawford was able to amass seven tackles and force a fumble late in the game yesterday. He won’t wow you with any sort of elite athleticism, but his cool British accent will give the bottom of your bench some swagger and boost their morale for sure.
Isaac Rochell, DE LAC (Week 14 vs. Atlanta)
Melvin Ingram is out for the remainder of the season, and Rochell will be stepping into what has been a very fruitful IDP position for defensive ends. Joey Bosa will obviously attract most of the attention, but Rochell is good enough to capitalize on the one-man coverage and rough up Matt Ryan a couple of times next week. Honestly, it is getting harder NOT to sack Matt Ryan than it is to actually get to him. The Falcons are lifeless out there, leaving Bosa and Rochell ready to have a field day as the Chargers try to build some momentum heading into 2021.
Linebacker
TJ Edwards, LB PHI (Week 14 vs. New Orleans)
Alex Singleton’s LB1 campaign is still very much on, but New Orleans’ play style suggests there may be two successful Eagles linebackers next Sunday. This game may get out of hand early with how well New Orleans has been playing this month, and if so, it should be the Taysom Hill/Alvin Kamara/Latavius Murray ground and pound show. Singleton has been on an absolute tear, but Edwards has been no slouch in his own right with 41 tackles over his last five games. Roll him out as a high-end LB3/low-end LB2 with upside if you’re an underdog heading into the first round of playoffs and need to make up some ground.
Jermaine Carter, LB CAR (Week 14 vs. Denver)
This is a deeeeeep longshot, but Carter has seen rising snap counts of 23-55-64% over their three weeks leading into a bye, and he racked up eight tackles in week 12. Denver surrenders plenty of fantasy points to linebackers, and while it is too early to tell if Carter’s recent production is news or noise, he is a fine LB3 to plug in should you lose every other IDP waiver claim you put in this week. (If you are a contender with roster space, he is a great stash as well.)
Defensive Backs
Adrian Phillips, S NE (Week 14 @ Los Angeles Rams)
Defensive back waiver matchups are tough to find this time of year, and when you find yourself looking for a home run play, you have to be looking for a game with serious pick-six potential. While Phillips isn’t necessarily a big play interception guy, he has massively rebounded from his early-season slump over the past month and a half. He has been consistently playing more than 80% of the snaps since week six. Even without Phillips being an interception-prone player, Jared Goff’s play this season could leave anything up for grabs. Start Phillips for the eight tackles you are guaranteed and just pray Goff has another poor primetime showing in week 14.
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
