Cornerstone Report: Week Three
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.
It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.
Last week’s column featuring Joe Burrow and Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard and Tylan Wallace can be found here.
NCAA WEEK FOUR
Kyle Pitts, TE Florida
Pitts’ 8-170-4 game against Missouri was one of the week’s most impressive performances. The former top 200 overall recruit has been on the dynasty radar since 2019, when he led the Gators in receptions (54; good for a respectable 17% team market share) and trailed only Rams second-round selection Van Jefferson in receiving yards.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
At 6’6” and 240 pounds, he often looks like a man among boys, even in the SEC. Here he shows size, strength, speed, good hands and fluid movement.
KYLE PITTS. TE1.
ENOUGH SAID.
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 26, 2020
With the departure of Jefferson, a top-five national ranking and good quarterback play from the ascending Kyle Trask, expect a big year from Pitts.
He is the 23rd-ranked player in the DLF Devy Rankings. This puts him as the devy TE1 and assigns him an expected rookie pick value of 2.11. September Devy ADP data has him 28th overall, suggesting the broader devy community is lower on him than DLF’s ranking team.
Expect him to ultimately go in the late first or early second round of standard rookie drafts. In two-TE or TE-premium leagues, he could sneak into the 1.06-1.09 range despite the quality of the 2021 rookie class.
Joshua Moore, WR Texas
Dynasty value lies somewhere among the murky Texas Longhorns receiving corps. Devin Duvernay took 106 receptions and nearly 1,400 yards with him to the NFL. No returning wideout caught more than 32 balls in 2019. The Longhorns are ranked top ten in the country and quarterback Sam Ehlinger has thrown for more than 9,000 yards in his career. Opportunity is there. Through two games, Joshua Moore is the breakout receiver.
Moore was a top 100 overall recruit in the 2018 class, yet he is a relative unknown for devy and dynasty purposes. This is understandable given the talent assembled by head coach Tom Herman, whose three full-cycle recruiting classes have an average national rank of fifth. Moore has also been quiet on the field until now. He caught just seven passes as a true freshman and was suspended for the 2019 season in response to legal troubles.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
He is listed a slim 6’1” and 169 pounds, the same measurements he had as a prep in 2018. Though he possesses above-average physical traits, he does not show the speed, elusiveness or explosiveness needed to provide comfort for a prospect of that size. An additional ten to 15 pounds would help.
This Joshua Moore TD catch 😨
(via @CFBONFOX)⁰pic.twitter.com/HqNLKtlDsZ
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 26, 2020
He is not included in the DLF Devy ADP or DLF Devy Rankings, which both go 75 players deep. Meanwhile, his teammate Brennan Eagles sits at 57th in ADP and has finally fallen out of our rankings. This suggests the devy community has not caught up to the DLF devy squad in devaluing Eagles, whose lack of production is finally eroding his reputation as a big-time recruit. Meanwhile, Moore’s value is sure to rise if he continues this pace. He possesses upside but is still a work in progress and comes with significant risk given his limited career production, physical profile and off-the-field history.
NFL WEEK Three
Justin Jefferson, WR MIN
Jefferson is fantasy’s WR21 after his 7-175-1 performance in week three. He has overtaken Olabisi Johnson as the Vikings WR2, leads the team in receiving yards, and trails only Adam Thielen in targets.
He is among the first of the stellar rookie receiver class to break out. He leads all rookie WRs in fantasy points and is tied for third with Tee Higgins with 15 targets. Producing 3.54 PPR points per touch, he narrowly beats Higgins (3.44) to lead rookie WRs. For reference, Calvin Ridley’s league-winning production comes at a rate of 3.50 PPR/touch.
Justin Jefferson's first career TD is a 71 yd gem pic.twitter.com/lT2cbzgAh9
— Vikings Blogger (@firstandskol) September 27, 2020
Jefferson is ranked eighth in the DLF Rookie Rankings as WR3 in 1QB leagues. In our Superflex Rookie Rankings, he is 11th as three quarterbacks place above him. He comes in at 52 overall as WR29 in our 1QB Dynasty Rankings between Jarvis Landry and Russell Wilson.
Expect his value to reverse the downward course it has seen since the NFL draft, as shown by our ADP Over Time tool.
Our Superflex Rankings bump him down about two rounds to 75th overall between Tyler Lockett and Todd Gurley. His ADP values suggest our rankers are higher on him than the broader community. He sits at 70 in 1QB ADP and 102 in 2QB/Superflex.
The DLF Trade Analyzer arrives at player values by combining DLF rankings, ADP and actual trade data from MyFantasyLeague (MFL). It values Jefferson slightly more than a random 2021 rookie first-round pick.
Finally, the DLF Trade Finder pulls data from actual MFL trades. Recent real-world deals including Jefferson include the following.
- 9-29-20: Justin Jefferson and RB Alexander Mattison, MIN for QB Daniel Jones, NYG (Superflex)
- 9-25-20: Justin Jefferson for RB Joshua Kelley, LAC
- 9-24-20: Justin Jefferson for RB Devin Singletary, BUF
- 9-23-20: Justin Jefferson and Year 2021 round two draft pick for RB Austin Ekeler, LAC
- 9-23-20: Justin Jefferson for QB Cam Newton, NE (1QB)
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
