A Comprehensive Look at the 2020 Rookie Wide Receiver Class
Over the last three-to-four seasons, all we’ve heard is that the 2020 rookie wide receiver class is among the most loaded in dynasty history. 2020 rookie draft picks seemed to trade higher than Bitcoin. I’m pleased to report that no matter which way you spin it, this expectation holds up: this class of rookies is by far one of the deepest pools of talent we have seen since 2014.
So, with all of this depth, does that mean you can’t miss at the position? Not necessarily. Let’s take a comprehensive look at this rookie class and break down their true dynasty potential in four major facets – Athleticism, Production, Opportunity, and WR1 Ability
The Model
For those of you who began following me on Twitter last season, you’ll remember the unveiling of my rookie wide receiver model. The model takes all of the factors mentioned above into consideration, and rates a rookie’s ability to make an *immediate* contribution to your fantasy roster. Any recruit who is deemed a “success” is more than likely going to either put up 800 yards or eight touchdowns within their first three years, while “busts” are either total busts, or you will need to wait longer than you should on an asset costing such high draft capital.
But in order for you to trust my process, I should at least share the prior results, right??
Overall, my model has performed with an 88.9% accuracy rating, properly categorizing 64 of 72 eligible wide receivers. Even better, only four of these 72 wide receivers have been “successes” of whom I labeled “busts” (John Ross, Darius Slayton, Anthony Miller, and Corey Davis). Aside from Slayton (who was the beneficiary of a slew of injuries in New York last season), none of these others have been blue-chip dynasty assets critical to have missed out on. Some of the best “hits” that this model uncovered for me (third-round NFL picks or later) were Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, and Kenny Golladay.
But the past is the past, and hindsight is 20/20. Onto the results for the new rookie class!
Athleticism
While combine measurables serve as a great comparison to find outliers within a draft class, the lasting effect of COVID-19 on the sports world since early February has prevented us from obtaining as rich of a database of true athletic measurables of which we are normally accustomed. I don’t know about you, but “combine” videos we saw this spring were too cringy for me… not to mention extremely easy to film over and over until you get the desired 40 time…
Using height, weight, weight-adjusted 40 times, and vertical jump data, we are still able to put together a predictable profile of these receivers’ athletic ability.
Some observations:
- As a whole, this group of wide receivers is ridiculously fast. I’m sure this trend will only continue in the future, but seeing sub-4.4 numbers like these become the norm is exciting for us as fans.
- Michael Pittman Jr. is dangerous. To be 6’4, 223 lbs and run a 6.96-second three-cone drill (with a 36” vertical to top it off) is a sign of his raw athleticism, and his landing spot with just TY Hilton in the slot and Parris Campbell outside to compete with bodes well for his ability to make a splash his rookie year.
- Side note: This isn’t anything analytics-related, but I LOVE players who perform every single drill at the combine. Players who just *want* it so badly (e.g. Jalen Reagor, Denzel Mims) even after proving themselves at the NCAA level always get brownie points from me.
Production
Next, a player’s ability to dominate in college is a major predictor of their ability to translate seamlessly in the NFL. By looking at market shares earned in the final two seasons of their career, we can see the overall trust a player earned from not only his coaches, but from his quarterback and teammates as well. Everybody is incredibly talented by the time you are a Division I athlete, but to stand out head and shoulders amongst your teammates (who are also incredibly talented) speaks to those destined for greatness at the next level.
Some observations:
- Even on a team with three-to-four NFL-caliber wide receivers, Jerry Jeudy absolutely ate no matter the game situation. Early downs? Jeudy. Need to convert a crucial first down? Jeudy. Looking to cap off a drive in the red zone? See above. It is important to look at these seasons with full context of the players around them to add context to their statistical output, otherwise you would have missed out on the likes of both AJ Brown and DK Metcalf last year looking at season stats alone.
- Brandon Aiyuk was able to do quite a lot with a small reception share. Though he only accounted for 17% of the team’s receptions, he is credited with almost 37% of the team’s receiving yards as a whole, which is indicative of his ability to create yards after the catch (it’s no surprise Shanahan jumped at the chance to land this guy).
- Ruggs’ stats need to be taken with context for the same reason Jeudy is earning praise, but his 14% reception share coupled with just 17% of the receiving yards is a major concern for me given his deep ball reputation.
NFL Opportunity
No matter how athletically gifted a player is, no matter how many receptions they had in college, and no matter how highly they were drafted, there are only so many targets to go around on one team. That feels dumb to write, but it’s important to remember this! You cannot just add 80 targets to a team without removing 80 from other players. By using purely vacated targets and charting every single one of those throws in the 2019-20 season, we are able to see the raw opportunity that is immediately available, as well as the “weighted opportunity.” “Weighted opportunity” not only accounts for the quantity of targets, but the quality of those targets as well.
Based on these calculations, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Devin Duvernay, and Brandon Aiyuk (even more so than shown above with Deebo Samuel’s latest injury) are clear winners with exceptionally clear paths onto the field. Henry Ruggs, Laviska Shenault, and Chase Claypool, however, may find themselves on the outside looking in, at least in the short term.
True WR1 Ability
Charting college play by play data is a messy business, but it massively pays off in the long run. By splitting up each player’s targets even further into “Early Downs” (first/second), “Clutch Downs” (third/fourth), and red zone work, you can identify a true WR1 who excels in every facet of the game. Players hovering right at 25% or greater in all four categories are highlighted in green, while players who failed to earn large shares in each facet of the game are highlighted in red as a warning. This isn’t to say players like Ruggs, Shenault, and Van Jefferson can’t become true powerhouse WR1s, but it shows they may be more likely to be defined to a specified, niche role (deep threat, red-zone target, etc.).
Conclusion
When combining the insights from all four facets of our study into my wide receiver model, only six of the 35 rookie wide receivers drafted are rated as instant “success” candidates. Those six, purely in order how highly they scored in the model, are as follows:
- CeeDee Lamb
- Jerry Jeudy
- Jalen Reagor
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Justin Jefferson
- Tee Higgins
When looking at the entire class through a dynasty lens, here are my full ranks
Now, no process is perfect, but I do think this is one of the most comprehensive deep dives you will find in this year’s class. And again, just because a player isn’t listed as a “success” in this model does not mean they will not be a successful prospect! Dynasty is all about positioning yourself for the long run, and if you are still trying to sift through this historic class, I recommend using these results as part of your process.
BONUS:
“My Guys” I find myself constantly drafting/acquiring in 2020
- Michael Pittman Jr.
Devin Duvernay (more to come on that later…wink wink)
Guys I’ve been fading when on the clock
- Chase Claypool
- Van Jefferson
- KJ Hamler
- Collin Johnson
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 17 - December 28, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 16 - December 21, 2020
- IDP Waiver Wire: Week 15 - December 15, 2020
