Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update: Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty owners, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In the Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profile and where they fit.
Name: Jonathan Taylor
Position: Running back
Pro Team: Indianapolis Colts
College Team: Wisconsin Badgers
Draft Status: Round two, 41st overall
VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS
COMBINE REVIEW
- Height: 5’10’’
- Weight: 226 pounds
- Arms: 31 1/8’’
- Hands: 9 1/2’’
- 40-yard dash: 4.39 seconds
- Bench press: 17
- Three-cone: 7.01 seconds
- Vertical jump: 36’’
- Broad jump: 123’’
STRENGTHS
- Has elite-level size-adjusted speed
- Displays excellent field vision during his approach to the line of scrimmage and in the open field
- A decisive runner who will quickly find the whole and zip through the second level of the defense
- Can handle a sizeable workload
- Demonstrates excellent contact balance
- Will consistently get more yardage than what is blocked
- Moves laterally very well and his quick feet allow him to slip by defenders
- Rushed for 6,174 yards and 50 touchdowns during his three-year career at Wisconsin while exceeding 2,000 scrimmage yards during all three years.
WEAKNESSES
- Toted the rock 968 times during the course of his career and could have some added wear on the tires
- Used sparingly as a receiver out of the backfield
- Had 15 fumbles in three years
- Eight drops during the course of his career
OPPORTUNITIES
Pro Football Focus ranked the Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line as the second-best running blocking unit in the league last year. Taylor will get the opportunity to run through larger-than-average running lanes. Quenton Nelson is one of the best guards in the league and he will road-grade the holes for Taylor to run through.
The Colts traded up to draft Taylor in the second round. Jim Irsay and Chris Ballard regarded him as a unique talent and didn’t want to get sniped by another team. There’s a strong belief in the organization he could make the team better and be a cornerstone piece in the offense. The team is excited to get him in the building to test out their new toy. Whenever you are drafted as a highly-coveted asset, there’s a very good chance the team is going to give you every opportunity to succeed.
Philip Rivers will be the new sheriff in town. He has a history of being able to get the most out of his running backs. He also likes using them in the passing game. There were a lot of question marks about Melvin Gordon’s receiving ability when he came out of college, but after some development and some trust with Rivers, Gordon was able to achieve four straight seasons of 40 catches or more.
Taylor doesn’t have stone hands and is more than capable of catching the ball in the flat. He can also be used as a lethal weapon in the screen game due to his size-adjusted speed. We could see Rivers lean on him in the passing game more than projected due to him being a dynamic playmaker.
THREATS
Marlon Mack is a threat to siphon a large share of the workload during Taylor’s rookie season. Mack is projected to hit free agency at the end of the year. Nyheim Hines is expected to be the team’s receiving option out of the backfield and he’s signed with the team through 2021. Both players could limit his touch-share during the early stages of his career.
Rivers is 38 years old and is on a one-year deal with the Colts. There’s a lot of ambiguity at the quarterback position which could lead to the offense either taking a step forward or crumbling somewhere in the future.
If the latter happens, then Taylor might not reach his full fantasy potential. This scenario would put him in a fantasy football purgatory where he flashes talent on each and every Sunday, but the offense isn’t explosive enough to sustain drives to move the ball downfield, limiting his red-zone looks.
His ceiling in fantasy is as high as Saquon Barkley’s. However, we don’t know what the offense will look like in the not so distant future. A massive step back at quarterback could cap his overall production.
SHORT-TERM EXPECTATIONS
Mack and Hines are going to steal some of the touches out of the backfield during his rookie season. We should see Taylor turn things on somewhere during the midway point. It could be sooner, it could be later, but he’s going to at least churn out at least a few big runs.
There’s a good chance he takes over the offense sooner than expected and develops into a true bell-cow. After all, Mack and Hines are not all-world talents and Taylor is the best runner in the backfield. The team is infatuated with him and it’s just a matter of time until he’s the lead dog out of the backfield.
We should see his dynasty stock build up steam going into his second season. Mack should be out the door after he hits free agency. There’s no way the team re-signs him after spending supreme draft capital on Taylor. From that point, Taylor will be a major focal point of the offense and will be projected to be one of the top running backs in the league.
LONG-TERM EXPECTATIONS
We should expect him to take the league by storm somewhere between his rookie season and year three. He should easily contend for RB1 status. There’s a good chance he’s fighting Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey to be proclaimed as fantasy football’s alpha dog at the running back position.
Even if the team around him takes a step back in the wrong direction, he’s talented enough to reach RB2 status if given enough volume. His speed and short-area quickness could allow him to surpass all odds and be a perennial RB1 no matter how bad the offense gets.
Although it might be unlikely, we could see him wear down due to the large workload he garnered from his days at Wisconsin, causing him to miss games due to injuries or even worse, a sudden loss of athleticism. This could cause him to totally bust as a fantasy asset. I personally don’t see this happening, but it’s fair to weigh in all the possible scenarios when you are paying premium capital for a player in rookie drafts.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON
Taylor is a much faster Ezekiel Elliott. Both players have very efficient footwork. They have excellent vision and the prototypical size of a three-down workhorse running back. Taylor is more of a home-run threat and accelerates at a faster rate. Elliott is currently the better receiving back, but there’s nothing in Taylor’s way from developing into a better receiver.
His size adjusted-speed compares to Barkley. Both of them posted 99th-percentile speed scores at the combine. Barley packs more burst, and agility along with an elite level receiving acumen. Taylor compares mostly with just speed, vision, and rushing production.
PROJECTED ROOKIE DRAFT RANGE
The hottest debate that emerged from the ashes of the NFL Draft is the Taylor versus Clyde Edwards-Helaire debate for the 1.01 pick. This debate pins a generational prospect against a generational situation. Due to this controversial topic, we see him getting drafted either at the 1.01 slot or the 1.02. He generally doesn’t fall much farther in drafts.
According to DLF’s Superflex ADP, Taylor is usually the third pick off the board. There’s a lot of ambiguity in superflex this year. We could see him drafted as the first pick, and in other leagues we could see him fall to 1.04. Depending on how your league-mates value the rest of the running backs in this class, he could potentially fall farther, but he’s usually being drafted within the top three.
We don’t see running backs like Taylor in many draft classes. Don’t be scared to draft him with one of the top picks. He’s in a good situation and has the athleticism, college production, and the tape to validate him being a high-level dynasty prospect.
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