Dynasty Startup Draft Strategy
With the 2019 fantasy season well behind us, and NFL draft season picking up steam, fantasy leagues are starting to prepare for the future. While rookie drafts in established leagues are always fun and I recently looked at league format changes if you’re looking to spice-up existing leagues, few things rival the excitement of a new league. Not much gets committed dynasty owners as worked up as a new startup league. The trash talk of a Twitter DM or message board, teams picking clever and funny names, and debates over scoring and settings- a great start can generate a ton of fun that helps keep a league alive even years later. But what is the right approach once draft day arrives?
Know your League
This gets said often, but time and time again, I see startups with an owner who clearly isn’t aware of the league’s settings and scoring. Be sure to check (and double-check) the scoring settings. Scoring tweaks like point-per-carry, point-per-first-down, tight end premium, and PPR can all have a significant impact on your draft strategy- this goes double for IDP leagues.
Also, be sure to check how many players you start at each position, how many flex spots, and roster size. Some leagues have max numbers of players allowed at each position too, which can dramatically alter how you attack your draft. The list is nearly endless, but just be sure that you thoroughly go over everything before your startup draft begins.
Trade Up or Trade Out?
I’m fortunate to have been in many leagues for many years. Over that time, I’ve tried all sorts of different strategies in startup drafts. You can trade future picks and later picks to move up and grab multiple studs early in your startup. You’re going to be in a lousy spot later in the draft as you try to build depth and fill out your roster, but if most of your early picks hit, it may not matter. A stars and scrubs approach can be effective. The polar opposite move is to trade back, and sometimes out of the early rounds entirely, and get a bunch of mid-round and future picks. This is the technique I’ve employed the most often, and I’ve had decent success with it.
I tend to like the value of many players who tend to be on the board in rounds 7-12. You’ll only need a few of them to out-perform their ADP to give you a massive return on your trade back. In addition to getting more of those mid-round gems, I like acquiring picks in the following year’s rookie draft too. Even if your startup draft goes horrifically terrible, if you’ve loaded up on next year’s rookie picks, it gives you an opportunity to bounce back quickly.
Rookie Biases
It’s no secret that dynasty players love rookies. In DLF’s most recent startup ADP, you can see that three rookies are going in the top-36, and eight are going in the top-60. I love rookies but hate the unknown, and the risk isn’t worth it in the early rounds. Throw all the rookie darts you want to late in the draft, but I’m not taking significant risks early.
For example, the three rookies in the top-36 are all running backs (Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, and JK Dobbins). But just behind them, you could have Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and Austin Ekeler. I’ll take the three veterans every single time. Could the rookies pop? Sure. But the floor is extremely low, and if you miss, it can set your team back for a couple of seasons.
Similarly, after the top-three rookie wide receivers are taken (Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Jalen Reagor), the teams behind them still have a shot at Adam Thielen, Jarvis Landry, and Christian Kirk. This rookie receiver group is getting all of the hype, but again I’d rather go with vets at a similar price. All of the above vets have a decent history of production that is likely to continue.
Fantasy football should always be fun, so if you absolutely have to get some shares of a particular rookie, go get your guy. If you overdraft a rookie you love, and he flops, it can hurt, but at least you followed your heart. On the other hand, if you decide to pivot off of a rookie you covet, and they become perennial stars, you’ll never forget it. Ever. Despite it not always being the best decision, sometimes you’ve got to get your guys. If you’re looking to learn more about anyone in this rookie class, check out our collection of draft prospect videos. You might come away with a little different opinion on a few players.
Forget Ageism
There are plenty of productive older guys. A startup isn’t the time to start fading old established players. The cost is typically baked in, and they can help you build a well-rounded roster. Julio Jones, AJ Green, Golden Tate, Julian Edelman, and Larry Fitzgerald can all be picked up relatively cheap compared to their production. After one or two years of production, you can try to flip them for some late rookie picks. If nobody is interested, don’t be afraid to let them die on your roster. If you like Tom Brady and Drew Brees, draft them and ride them into their coffins. Hopefully, you can find a rookie to stash a year or two later. But be cautious not to overdo it. You’ll need a healthy mix of young and old to keep a team competitive for several years.
Quarterbacks are Key
In single-quarterback leagues, quarterbacks are often undervalued. In redraft leagues, I’ll typically intentionally wait and be the last team to take a starter, sometimes I’ll wait until several owners start drafting backups. In a dynasty startup, I’m not so patient. If I can get myself an established, productive fantasy QB, I’ll pull the trigger early. The thought process is that if I take Deshaun Watson at pick 52 today, I won’t have to burn a rookie pick on a quarterback for another decade. The ability to fade one position for ten years’ worth of rookie drafts can create some incredible flexibility year after year. In superflex, the prices are all bumped up, but similarly, grabbing one legit stud early can give your team a leg up on your competition for years.
Even if you don’t want to lock up a young stud early, there is still tons of value to be had late if you don’t mind the volatility. In the 14th rounds of startups, you can come away with Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Kirk Cousins. All three of them are perfectly acceptable QBs, especially when you were just able to stack six RBs and six WRs before that. I suggest participating in some mock drafts and seeing what kind of teams you can build waiting on quarterbacks and picking up value options in rounds 13 through 15; I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised. Comparing the mid-round values to the highest and lowest quarterbacks by ADP below, I think you’re getting tremendous value at a reasonable price.
The Death of Zero-RB
This is not going to be popular. For a long time, I was a big Zero-RB proponent. Currently, 11 of the top 24 picks are running backs. If you go Zero -RB, you might have a stacked receiving corps, but you might be looking at Marlon Mack and David Montgomery as your top two running backs. That is, uh, less than ideal.
On the other hand, wide receiver is arguably the deepest it’s ever been. Going Zero-WR, and waiting until after the fourth round, you can still come away with Tyler Lockett and Jarvis Landry. As mentioned above, I can’t encourage you enough to do some mock drafts to kick the tires on different strategies, but I haven’t seen a Zero-RB team I’ve liked in nearly two years. Using DLF’s ADP/Ranking and Probability grid, you can see for yourself how the first few rounds have been playing out and what kind of teams you’d be able to build using different strategies.
Coaches, Schemes, and Systems
For rookies, this can be summed up as “landing spot,” but for veterans in a startup, you have a little more time to break everything down in depth leading up to the draft. It’s no secret, but certain teams produce more fantasy points. For example, Andy Reid and Sean Payton have had fantasy-friendly offenses since 1999 and 2006, respectively.
More recently, we’ve seen Kyle Shanahan’s presence be enough to boost the draft day prices of several players. Bumping up players from the Chiefs, Saints, and 49ers will likely be a smart move, as we have plenty of evidence to back it up. Using DLF’s Coaching History App can help you break down who to target. Here you can see how productive Reid’s players have been.
On the other hand, I also find coaches and schemes to fade. I’ll bump down any players from a team with a first-time head coach. I’m not interested in accumulating players from a team who’s new coaches’ tendencies are unknown at the NFL level. Again, later in drafts, feel free to take more risks and throw darts, but early on, I’m not rolling the dice on anyone with a new system or a system that hasn’t seemed to work. For example, the Redskins scored the fewest points in the NFL last year, 266. By comparison, the Ravens led the league with 531 points. All things being equal, you’re probably going to get more fantasy goodness from anyone in Baltimore, no matter how much you love any Washington players. Target good teams with good coaches and good offenses.
Another thing to keep in mind: coaches get fired. As much as you might be a fan of Bruce Arians or Mike Tomlin, they both might be one or two bad seasons away from the unemployment line. Not knowing who might be coming in and dictating the touches for players like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and JuJu Smith-Schuster can give you an ulcer. It’s impossible to know who is getting fired, but you can get a general idea of who is and who isn’t on the hot seat, and that can be a great tie-breaker between two players when you’re on the clock in the 13th round.
Following up on coaches and their systems, look for weapons with good quarterbacks too. Taking a glance at quarterback ADP, the good signal-callers tend to have good weapons. It’s a chicken or the egg argument, but it doesn’t matter. You’ll see that ADP for receivers will show Deshaun Watson’s and Patrick Mahomes’ top weapons are not-so-coincidentally WR3 and WR4 in ADP. Lamar Jackson is a bit of an outlier because so much of his fantasy value comes from his legs, but if the Ravens target a receiver early in the draft, he could see his ADP skyrocket going forward. Everyone knows the NFL’s top quarterbacks- get their weapons.
There is no “right” way to conduct a startup draft. Once you find something that works for you, I’d suggest you keep at it unless you’re a glutton for punishment or a fantasy football writer who needs to try different things to generate content, but I digress. I can’t stress enough to play it safe early. You may not always “win” your draft with your first few picks, but many fantasy owners have absolutely lost their league with their early picks. It can be hard to dig your way out of a hole you place yourself in during your startup. Good luck in your startups, and be sure to check out all of the tools DLF offers to help you make informed decisions.
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