DraftKings Bargains: Week 14
It’s playoff time in most fantasy leagues and if you were unable to make the push for postseason play, then you are more than likely on the outside looking in. This is the time of the year where you should think about transitioning to playing DFS if you still want to get in on the action. There are plenty of opportunities to submit lineups and to use the knowledge that you’ve gained throughout the season to gain an edge over the field.
Let me prime you for this week’s slate with some the hot bargains on DraftKings.
QUARTERBACK
Kyler Murray, ARI ($5,800)
Murray will be playing at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Vegas has the over/under set at 43.5 which is one of the lowest projected point totals on the slate. On top of that, Vegas is expecting a tight game script considering they have the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites. This game isn’t expected to turn into a shoot out but there will be still plenty of opportunities for Murray to churn out fantasy points.
Murray’s $5,800 DraftKings salary is the cheapest we’ve seen him since week three. His discounted price point accounts for his tough matchup against the Steelers who have one of the toughest defenses in the league. Murray is also playing through a hamstring injury that impacted his stat line in week 13 when he passed for 163 yards and one interception.
His ownership rate should be lower than usual due to recency bias from last week’s horrid performance. Many DFS players are going to pivot away from Murray since he’s playing the Steelers’ lockdown defense who is third in the league with a -15.5% DVOA. He can be a contrarian option for your lineup that also has a sizable ceiling.
Like most rookie quarterbacks, Murray isn’t matchup-proof but he did manage to score 26.7 and 23.04 DK points on the San Francisco 49ers who has one of the toughest defenses in the league. Arizona also ranks second in the league with 27.43 seconds ran between offensive plays in a neutral game script which means he should get plenty of opportunities to produce on the field on Sunday. He also carries the Konami code by averaging 41.75 rushing yards per game in his last four contests.
Of course, we don’t want to run Murray naked. Christian Kirk has seen 26 targets in the last three weeks while also receiving 312 air yards and is the best receiving option on the Cardinals’ offense to stack with Murray. Kirk is priced palatably at $5,200 and is one of the safest wide receivers in his salary range.
Other option: Andy Dalton $5,200, Gardner Minshew $5,400, Ryan Tannehill $5,800
RUNNING BACK
Melvin Gordon, LAC ($6,400)
Gordon has received 20 or more rushing attempts in three of his last four games. He will be rushing against the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense who has one of the softest run defenses in the league. The projected point total for this game is set at just 43 points and the Chargers are three-point favorites. We will more than likely not see the scoreboard light up like a Christmas tree, but Gordon should receive more than enough opportunities to make his mark in the box score.
The majority of the field is going to pivot away from Gordon due to him being in a timeshare with Austin Ekeler who is stealing a lot of the receiving work out of the backfield. Gordon is still getting more than enough touches to make him a dependable play at $6,400 and has the potential to finish the week as an RB1.
Philip Rivers has been running cold as of late. His poor play could disrupt the team’s ability to keep the chains moving. With that being said, you should limit your exposure to Gordon just in case the Chargers’ offense implodes and kills Gordon’s ability to break off any long runs.
Other options: Patrick Laird $4,100, Jamaal Williams $4,800, Derrius Guice $4,900
WIDE RECEIVER
Odell Beckham, CLE ($6,300)
Beckham is fourth in the league with 498 air yards in the last four weeks. He also leads the league with 11 targets of 20 yards or more since week ten. He will be playing against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that struggles covering the deep ball. Beckham like most wide receivers, should be able to run free against the Bengals’ secondary.
Jarvis Landry is stealing a large share of the workload, seeing double-digit targets in five of his last six games. His success is taking away some of the appeal from Beckham. Many DFS players are going to pivot away from Beckham considering he is currently ranked as the WR28 with 36.3 PPR fantasy points in his last three games.
If he’s going to go off and produce a mega WR1 week it would be against a Bengals team who is trying to earn the first overall draft in next year’s draft. His price tag is relatively cheap for a player receiving his target volume of 8.58 targets per game.
One of the reasons why Beckham isn’t able to convert his workload into fantasy points is because Baker Mayfield isn’t getting enough time to throw the ball downfield. His offensive line is causing him to get rid of the football in less than 2.5 seconds after the ball has been snapped on 50.6% of his dropbacks, making it hard for Beckham to receive quality targets when he’s being utilized as the team’s deep threat. Mayfield should see more than enough time to throw the ball since the Bengals have their sights more on Joe Burrow than sacking the passer.
Other options: Parris Campbell $3,200, Chris Conley $4,000, Curtis Samuel $4,900
TIGHT END
Ian Thomas, CAR ($2,500)
Greg Olsen won’t be available to suit up and help the Panthers against the Atlanta Falcons. Thomas who is listed at the bare minimum price point on DraftKings is the next man up. He should see a bevy of targets in a game that is projected to be a high scoring affair. Vegas has the over/under set at 47 points and has the Falcons as three points favorites.
Thomas will receive a high ownership rate in all DFS formats this week. His low salary will allow DFS players to jam in higher priced players into their lineups. Considering how volatile the tight end position has been this season, his discounted price point makes him one of the safest tight ends.
Other options: TJ Hockenson $3,400, Mike Gesicki $4,000, Jack Doyle $4,600
- 2024 NFL Draft: What We Expect for Day 3 - April 27, 2024
- 2024 NFL Draft: What We Expect for Day 2 - April 26, 2024
- 2024 NFL Draft: What We Expect for Day 1 - April 25, 2024
