User League Analysis: Episode One
I have been toying with the idea of getting more of you involved in our articles for a while, and I am finally getting around to making it happen. The User League Analysis is going to be a semi-periodical piece where I will take a random user league and do a small write-up on it.
The purpose is to analyze the league, teams and trades as a group so that we may learn from successes and mistakes. It’s easy to read about what to do and how to do it, but until we see it in action, it’s difficult for some of us to actually be able to relate material and information to our own dynasty teams and leagues.
So get settled in and let’s learn from analysing our very first league, Strongsafety.Superflex.Com. This is a 12-team superflex, start ten (QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 2 F, 1 SF, 16 Bench) PPR league that had its startup draft just over two months ago.
The league rules are in the form of a Google Doc — and just a heads up for anyone else who does this — I would work on adding that document to the official MFL site somehow. You should have your rules as a link in the tabs, on the message board, or in the “additional rules” section of the commissioner setup tools so it’s easy to find. The more centralized your vital information is, the better for the long run of the league.
Since the startup draft just happened, let’s point out one anomaly I’ve noticed. If we compare the draft positions with our SF rankings, there is one thing that immediately stands out:
DozersBigFoozballs (DBF) elected to draft Nick Chubb fifth overall. This is the largest early-round difference vs our rankings (23rd), and it’s possible that DBF could have drafted Nick Chubb in the second round instead since he owned the 20th overall selection as well.
What we don’t know is (1) if DBF is a Browns fan or (2) a Georgia Bulldog fan (where Chubb went to college) or (3) are there other fans of Chubb in the league, and DBF didn’t want to miss out on his favorite targeted player, or perhaps (4) was he buying the hype that Chubb was the star RB on a team that was representing a high-powered offense?
PPR leagues require quality PPR players, and with players like Ezekiel Elliott and 22-year-old JuJu Smith-Schuster still on the board, it’s easy to question the selection of Nick Chubb fifth overall. It’s worth mentioning that we all buy into hype from time to time, and that’s a scary avenue.
Does anyone remember WR Michael Floyd? He was selected 12th overall by the Arizona Cardinals in the 2012 draft. He was anointed by everyone as Larry Fitzgerald’s replacement, and we all bought into the hype. Seven years later, Floyd is out of the league, and Fitzgerald is still a player to own in every dynasty league.
I owned several shares of Michael Floyd. I spent a pretty penny obtaining him everywhere I could, and the payoff wasn’t via fantasy points but a lesson learned: Don’t buy players on hype alone. I hope for DBF that his purchase of Chubb at the fifth spot pays off in the long run. I’m sure he was happy with his selection at the time, and through two weeks, there’s no reason to be unhappy with it yet.
The Bottom Team Dilemma
When looking at the standings, I am immediately drawn to House of Carr (HoC). I don’t care so much that he’s in last place, I care that his team has scored 80 points through two weeks while all other teams in the league have scored 70-110% more than his team. That means his team needs to sell off pieces that do not stand a chance to help him beyond this season or next.
Malcolm Brown is a back that would not be given the time of day if it were not for Gurley’s knees. HoC should be making offers to the Gurley owner to get whatever he can. There is not much of a market for Brown, but there is at least some value for the Gurley owner, and that’s who HoC should be targeting.
Cole Beasley is another player who doesn’t belong on a roster of an 0-2 team of this magnitude. I would recommend selling Beasley for nearly anything you can get as bye weeks start approaching. Beasley doesn’t have much value now, but when teams start jockeying for the playoffs, bye weeks and injuries will happen, and the market will open up. I hope he takes advantage.
The Worst 2-0 Team Dilemma
I went through all the rosters and there are two teams that scared me more than the others. One such team called You Reek (YR) found itself sitting at 2-0 after two weeks in the league. The downside is that this team was scoring below the league average, and its top players are a little on the old side.
Mark Ingram, Larry Fitzgerald, and Adam Thielen are some of the players on the starting roster. All of these guys only have a few good years left, if that, so their values start to plummet with each passing season. I’d be content with one of these guys on my winning team, but not all three.
The issue is that if he sells these players now, he might not get good value in return. And if he rolls out these players each week, mathematical logic says he will eventually lose during the regular season since he’s scoring below average. This team also doesn’t have a quality tight end it can lean on, and without that position taken care of, I don’t know how much further this team can continue winning.
Another dilemma is that he’s already sold his future first round pick, giving it up along with AJ Green for Calvin Ridley. While I like the deal as-is, I fear it might leave the team in win-now mode for this season, and possibly in limbo for next season. We’re painted into a corner here, and there’s really no easy way out.
My advice would be to try to get a cheap filler at the TE position for 2019 and make a go of it. The other thing that YR would have to do is to work the waiver wire and try to stay afloat for as long as possible. If he makes the playoffs, he wins. If playoffs start to look impossible, sell these old guys to whoever needs them and start anew in 2020.
The “Where Am I Going” Dilemma
The other team that scares me is simply called Phil. Phil sounds like a cool guy, but his team is littered with players who are either injured, under-performing, old, or out of the league.
Cam Newton has an injury that doesn’t seem like is going away any time soon. Emmanuel Sanders is having a great season, but he’s on the wrong side of 30. Tevin Coleman is injured, Kenyon Drake is surrounded by trade rumors, and Antonio Brown is out of the league.
Despite all of these issues, Phil was 2-0 through two weeks. It’s an unlikely story that makes his situation very complicated. His team is scoring around the league average, despite all the roster problems, so it would be unwise to simply give up.
In my opinion, it would be worth shopping the injured players to teams who are struggling and looking towards a reboot next season. His team would get fresh legs to put in the starting lineup, and the other team would get an injured player who wouldn’t jeopardize draft position, yet would be able to contribute next season. This would be the ideal win-win scenario for all parties involved.
The Others
I would like to say something about all teams for this article and all future ones, but I’m running out of room so I have to abbreviate my observations. Here are some quick hits for the other guys:
Cutoffs ‘n Jorts — Is it a shock that the current third place team has both Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott? Prescott was taken in the seventh round. Nice!
Matt — This team is WR heavy – a solid strategy for building something that should be successful long-term in nearly any format.
MEGABALLERS, Superflex ed. — This person clearly drafted youth and it happens to be paying off earlier than expected. You might fizzle out down the stretch because of the lack of depth.
Darnold’s Mono — Pretty funny topical team name you got there. I like the structure of the roster, and that Gardner Minshew add via waivers is going to keep you afloat for a while. Your ability to stay on top of the waiver wire will be your key to success.
Fitz — You have some injuries, you have some older guys, but your team is a good mixture and should be winning. Small adjustments needed here in the form of trades or waiver wire, and you’ll be fine.
LugoDoyleFlex — That Drew Brees injury hurt you. I see you have Gurley, Aaron Rodgers, and Odell Beckham Jr as well. These players have had major injuries over the past 365 days. Tread lightly my friend, as you don’t have the depth to sustain more injuries.
DozersBigFoozballs — I already mentioned you once, but I like the deals you’ve made. You’ve acquired a lot of draft capital for 2020 and you are losing this season like a champ. You’ve chosen a direction and you are full steam ahead. I approve.
Jim — With no solid TE to speak of and a lack of depth at WR, this team will remain on the outside looking in. I love the high-end pieces, but you’re going to have to pick a direction. Either make some trades to get TE and depth, or keep losing to get better draft position for 2020.
The reaction to this piece will help determine if this is worthy enough to turn into a series, so please post below with anything you wish I would have expanded on or had covered, or simply a “nice job” will also suffice. Also, add me on twitter (@MikeEHavens), for that will be my sole means of recruiting leagues in the future.
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