Using DLF Data Analytics to Win
A five-point ADP drop means a heck of a lot more when it’s 2 to 7 than when it’s 72-77. The DLF Change in Player Value tab of our DLF Data Analytics section scales ADP and DLF Rank changes through the DLF Trade Value algorithm to better demonstrate changes in player value, and highlights the top five risers and fallers over the selected time period. Here is the month over month data from May to June.
TOP VALUE RISERS
1. David Montgomery, RB CHI (+67)
No player gained more value from May to June than Chicago Bears third-round rookie David Montgomery. His landing spot vaulted his pre-NFL Draft ADP of 64 to the late fourth round of startups (ADP 46; RB20). While the dynasty community assumes a feature role for Montgomery, the team’s running back usage in 2018 suggests this assumption is hasty.
The Bears had the most old-fashioned thunder/lightning split in the league last year. Which we all agree is silly.
I don't think young Montgomery is walking into a bell-cow role because Cohen is good and has a clear role. But many other people disagree. pic.twitter.com/bXGR8ku6Vx— T͓̽o͓̽m͓̽ ͓̽K͓̽i͓̽s͓̽l͓̽i͓̽n͓̽g͓̽b͓̽u͓̽r͓̽y͓̽ (@TomKislingbury) June 17, 2019
It is an aggressive rise for someone joining a backfield already featuring a fringe RB1 performer in Tarik Cohen. Outside of rookie drafts, I would not be comfortable buying Montgomery at this price.
2. Marlon Mack, RB IND (+65)
The second highest riser is the newly proclaimed Colts workhorse, Marlon Mack. The team passed on the position during the NFL Draft. Head coach Frank Reich then called Mack the backfield’s “main guy” with Nyheim Hines as the “main third down guy” at the start of minicamp on June 11th.
At age 23 with a strong prospect profile out of college, coming off an RB2 season and now with validation and an apparent feature role in one of the league’s best offenses, Mack still offers upside after this month’s rise and an ADP of RB20.
3. Tyler Lockett, WR SEA (+47)
There’s a dropoff from the gains of the top two on the list to Tyler Lockett, but a one round climb from ADP 63 to 53 (WR37) is still notable. The move occurred despite Seattle’s second-round selection of polarizing and athletic receiver DK Metcalf. The retirement of Doug Baldwin also influenced Lockett’s rise.
Lockett has been heralded as an athletic dynasty stash since the Seahawks drafted him in the third round in 2015. He finished as WR18 last season, projects to lead Seattle in targets in 2019, and is 26 years old.
I have concerns about Lockett’s 2019 and beyond. He produced a 57-965-10 receiving line on only 70 targets. Though he should see many of Baldwin’s 73 departed targets, which led the team, Seattle’s 427 pass attempts (26.7 per game) were the fewest in the NFL.
Additionally, Lockett’s production was touchdown-dependent at a rate that will be difficult to sustain. Only Mike Williams produced as many TDs with fewer targets (Lockett’s catch percentage was also an outlier).
Table from Pro Football Reference.
4. Josh Jacobs, RB OAK (+42)
A consensus top-two rookie running back heading into the draft, Josh Jacobs landed in an apparent feature role in Oakland.
Jalen Richard finished as a top 30 fantasy RB in a third-down role he very well may retain.
The Raiders split carries among their backs in 2018. Their top rusher, Doug Martin, was given only 50.3% of RB carries and only 44.7% of first down touches (rushes and receptions).
Josh Jacobs’ light college workload has been covered in detail. First-round draft capital tells us the Raiders like him. But they split work among RBs in 2018, and Jacobs split time at Alabama, as well. One trend must change to justify Jacobs’ value.
5. Darrell Henderson, RB LAR (+37)
Unlike Jacobs, Darrell Henderson is not a first-round NFL Draft selection. The dynasty community has reached the pitchfork stage with Todd Gurley and Henderson is the main beneficiary.
That said, Henderson is a talented, explosive back with a favorable landing spot. Henderson has been going as high as the fifth round in some startups. I concluded a superflex draft this weekend in which Henderson was taken at 8.11; I chose Miles Sanders (whose 1 QB DLF ADP is 48; nearly two rounds earlier than Henderson’s 70) at 8.12.
WORST VALUE FALLERS
1. Derrius Guice, RB WAS (-81)
Derrius Guice is the biggest monthly mover, yet the move may lack a clear catalyst. Concerns about Guice’s recovery from an ACL tear should ease with head coach Jay Gruden’s expectation of Guice’s readiness for training camp.
The team spent a fourth-round pick on likely redshirt Bryce Love, leaving 34-year-old legend Adrian Peterson and third down sparkplug Chris Thompson as Guice’s competition for touches.
The bigger concern is the Washington offense. If it produces similarly to 2018, all backs may struggle to find enough touches to satisfy dynasty owners. The team may very well start a rookie quarterback. And despite his dramatic fall in value, Guice still sits at RB17 in the latest DLF ADP.
2. Todd Gurley, RB LAR (-64)
The reasons for Todd Gurley’s fall are clear: an arthritic condition in his knee and the behavior of the Rams going back to the end of the 2018 season. Yet, as stated earlier, the dynasty community has overreacted.
Much of the reaction stems from a quote from NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport which provides no information that was not already known.
Gurley’s DLF ADP fell from 10 to 14 in June; this case best shows the DLF Data Analytics algorithm at work. A four-spot drop equates to a -67 value decrease.
Still, there is room for Gurley’s value to further fall. If intent on acquiring him, wait another few weeks, but not until we are close enough to training camp. And by the way, Rotoworld reported on June 12th that Sean McVay expects Gurley to be ready for camp. But that quote didn’t make the rounds.
3. Dalvin Cook, RB MIN (-57)
The Vikings selected middling athlete and college producer Alexander Mattison at the end of the third round of the NFL Draft. Mattison is more likely, however, to spell Dalvin Cook and replace departed Latavius Murray than to supplant Cook.
Murray was able to carve out a receiving role even with a healthy Cook. It is possible that the Vikings plan to limit Cook’s touches to preserve his health. Still, that is speculation rather than a specific catalyst.
Use this dip as a buying opportunity if you are a believer in Cook’s talent and opportunity (I am, for the record).
4. Corey Davis, WR TEN (-54)
Oh, Corey Davis. Where to begin with Corey Davis? The much-maligned Corey Davis.
Prospects with 18-year-old breakout ages, 51% dominator ratings, and top five overall draft capital do not usually bust. He has a solid foundation for success.
External factors have depressed Davis’ value. Marcus Mariota has a career 89.4 passer rating and adjusted yards per attempt of 7.2, which would have ranked 18th in the NFL as a team last year. The Titans attempted only 437 passes in 2018, second least in the league. Davis led the Titans with just 112 targets.
The Titans ranked 29th in pass yards and pass TDs, and 25th in yards per play.
The team has a new offensive coordinator and Mariota is in the final year of his rookie contract. If you believe in the talent of Davis, now is a good time to buy.
5. Tarik Cohen, RB CHI (-46)
Tarik Cohen’s value fell with the arrival of David Montgomery. As outlined above, however, the Bears will continue to utilize Cohen’s unique skill set. Montgomery will not be a bellcow back blocking Cohen from fantasy relevance. Use this opportunity to buy Cohen with the expectation of RB2 production.
Let me know what you think. Do you agree with these action plans based on June’s dramatic changes in value? Please share your thoughts in the comments section below or find me on the twitters at @threedownhack.
Be sure to use the new generation tools available in the DLF Data Analytics section to gain an edge over your competition.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
