2019 NFL Draft Dynasty Review: NFC North
Prior to the start of the 2018 NFL season, there were a lot of people wondering if the NFC North would have three playoff teams. Everyone expected the Lions to be last, but the Vikings seemed to have found their quarterback after going 13-3 in 2017, the Packers have a healthy Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Nagy just might be enough of a wizard to get the Bears in as well.
At least that was what we all thought. As it turns out, even with loaded skill positions across much of the division, only the Bears managed more than eight wins.
For most of the teams in the division, the lack of wins in 2018 was mostly due to not living up to their potential or due to injuries instead of not having the personnel. As a result, the 2019 draft wasn’t about finding key offensive pieces.
Instead, it was about solidifying the depth charts and supporting casts around those main players who are already in place. This meant a lot of linemen and defensive players to go along with a few players who will play backup roles for most of their careers. By and large, it wasn’t a high impact year for fantasy owners, but let’s take a look at what we did get.
CHICAGO BEARS
Before we get into the Bears’ draft choices, there is one important fact to remember about the 2019 draft. The Bears’ first-round pick already has 47 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, and a pick six. Their second-round pick had 33 receptions for 423 yards and seven touchdowns in a part-time role. I am, of course, referring to them trading their 2019 first and second round picks for Khalil Mack and Anthony Miller. As a result, the Bears didn’t draft until the third round.
David Montgomery, RB Iowa State (Round 3, Pick 73)
A top three running back on almost all boards leading up to the draft, Montgomery isn’t an explosive athlete. He isn’t going to outrun many NFL defenders nor will he have a lot of 40+ yard runs. Instead, he is a great running back. He has great instincts and vision to go with some solid power. This combination allowed him to have an impressive number of broken and missed tackles in college. When you add in natural hands and great balance, especially after contact, you get someone who might not be elite but can be a very good running back in the NFL for the next five or so years.
The concern for dynasty owners is how does he fit on the team with the recent signing of Mike Davis and the 2019 standout Tarik Cohen. I think the short answer is that Davis is nothing more than a backup now while Montgomery is the primary rusher. The odd thing is that I don’t see this having much impact on Cohen. I think Cohen is such a dynamic weapon with a unique skill set which will allow him to be on the field at the same time as Montgomery, keeping Cohen at a very similar level while Montgomery posts high-end RB2 numbers.
Riley Ridley, WR Georgia (Round 4, Pick 126)
The brother of Atlanta Falcons’ receiver Calvin Ridley, Riley isn’t quite on the same level as his brother. That isn’t to say he is a terrible player, he is just a little more average in terms of overall ability. He is solid but not spectacular in any way. My biggest concern for him when it comes to fantasy is I think he will be a much more valuable NFL player than a fantasy player. I think he helps round out that receiver group in Chicago, but I don’t see him being more than the fifth target on the team. That doesn’t have a lot of fantasy relevance.
Kerrith Whyte, RB Florida Atlantic (Round 7, Pick 222)
College teammate to Devin Singletary, Whyte made up the lesser though potentially more explosive part of their committee attack. While he is explosive, he has a very raw and limited skill set when it comes to playing running back in the NFL. This is why I think he was selected to be a return specialist for the Bears because Whyte really excelled in that area in college. Unless your league has a spot just for returners, there isn’t any fantasy relevance here.
DETROIT LIONS
Even though the records were fairly close, I think the vast majority of people would say the Lions were the worst team in the division last year. They were the rare NFL team who was selling off veterans at the trade deadline, and they struggled to find any kind of consistency under first-year head coach Matt Patricia. For fans of the Motor City Kitties, hopefully, they can turn things around this year!
TJ Hockenson, TE Iowa (Round 1, Pick 8)
The Lions took a big swing with their first-round pick and grabbed the tight end who might be the most talented all-around tight end to come out of college in the last decade. Hockenson isn’t an athletic freak, but he is pretty close. When you combine that with a complete skill set, an unrelenting work ethic, and a team-first mentality, you get a special player. He has the ability to play in line or split out wide. He has enough speed to stretch the seam while providing a big target and reliable hands for his quarterback. He is only the third tight end in the modern draft era to be taken with the eighth pick or earlier. The other two are Vernon Davis and Kellen Winslow Jr. That’s some pretty good company!
From a fantasy standpoint, there is some concern that the Lions don’t know how to use their tight ends. The last time they spent a first round pick on a tight end – Eric Ebron – he looked like an utter bust. Then he went to the Colts and had 66 receptions for 750 yards and 13 touchdowns in his first year out of Detroit. I think things have changed enough that you can’t use that as a knock on Hockenson. I also think the need for Hockenson to show up big in the passing game will help. Marvin Jones is almost 30 and Danny Amendola is quite a bit past it. The only other relatively proven commodity in the passing game is Kenny Golladay. This should leave a lot of targets for their new tight end.
Travis Fulgham, WR Old Dominion (Round 6, Pick 11)
After their first-round tight end, the Lions spent an awful lot of picks on the defensive side of the ball before coming back to the offense in the sixth round. On most teams, Fulgham would be just a special teams player. However, the Lions have very little in terms of depth at the wide receiver position. In fact, I would say that they have three receivers and that’s it. This means Fulgham is going to have a better chance than normal to see the field. However, I don’t think he has enough talent to warrant any fantasy consideration even if he does see the field.
Ty Johnson, RB Maryland (Round 6, Pick 186)
Explosive, undersized, and lacking in the passing game. That sums up Johnson in a nutshell. He definitely has some moves and can make a big play, but I question if he’ll be able to hold up as anything more than a part-time player. Since the Lions seem to have an abundance of these part-time running backs already, I think he is most likely to end up as a return specialist. Not much fantasy relevance here.
Isaac Nauta, TE (Round 7, Pick 10)
A high-level recruit heading into college, Nauta never really lived up to the hype. He was largely unproductive in college though, and he looks to be pretty raw when it comes to playing the position. I think he is purely a developmental pick by the Lions. Given how long tight ends normally take, he isn’t on the fantasy radar.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
After missing over half of the 2018 season, Aaron Rodgers was set to lead the Packers back to the playoffs in 2019. He started all 16 games, but he wasn’t his dominant self. He still threw for over 4,400 yards and only 2 interceptions, but he had the lowest touchdown rate of his career to go along with 49 sacks and a career low in QBR. He really wasn’t the elite quarterback most think of him as. The Packers helped him out by drafting a center in the second round, but I’m not sure that will be enough. They are largely trusting him to do what he can with the weapons he already has around him.
Jace Sternberger, TE Texas A&M (Round 3, Pick 75)
It is possible that Sternberger could be the tight end of the future for the Packers. Jimmy Graham isn’t the same player he was with the Saints, and he is entering the last year of his contract with big guaranteed money. I expect Graham to continue to be the guy for this year, but Sternberger will still see the field and if he can learn the game at the NFL level, could be the starter heading into the 2020 season.
From a skill set standpoint, Sternberger is really more of a big receiver than a tight end. He runs nice rounds and has better hands than most other tight ends. He is also pretty good with the ball in his hands for someone of his size. Where he struggles is in using his size to his advantage when positioning for a catch. This is something Graham excels at, so maybe he can help out. The other big concern is blocking. Sternberger is not a good blocker by any stretch of the imagination. He will need to work on this if he wants to be a full-time player.
Dexter Williams, RB Notre Dame (Round 6, Pick 194)
Williams had a hard time staying on the field in college due to a combination of injury issues and suspensions. There are a lot of red flags here, but when he was on the field he did show some potential. He does a great job at seeing the holes develop and hitting them with a quick burst. What he lacks is the ability to make people miss in the open field as well as breaking tackles.
In terms of opportunity, the Green Bay backfield is a complete and utter mess. Aaron Jones is the likely starter, but he has shown a tendency to get hurt in addition to being a liability in the passing game. Jamaal Williams isn’t nearly as good of a rusher, but he is a much better pass protector, which given the 49 sacks Rodgers took last year is a big plus. Dexter is going to need to compete with both of them. He has the ability to be a true three-down back, but the odds are a bit long right now.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Potentially the biggest disappointment in 2019, not just in the NFC North but in the whole NFL, the Vikings went from 13-3 in 2018 to under .500 even though they gave out the first fully guaranteed contract to Kirk Cousins. They invested a lot of their draft capital on the offensive side of the ball, spending almost half of their picks on offensive linemen and most of the rest on skill position players. Time will tell if it pays off and helps them get back to double-digit wins.
Irv Smith Jr., TE Alabama (Round 2, pick 50)
The son of a former first-round pick, Irv Smith Jr. has all of the physical tools you want to see in a tight end with the exception of him being a little undersized. At 6’2” and 240 pounds, he is more of an H-back than a true tight end. While he has the tools, he is also fairly raw for the position. He struggles to run routes at times, struggles in blocking, and isn’t a natural catcher of the football. He is going to need more time than most to adjust to playing the position at the NFL level, but the ceiling is pretty high.
He walks into an interesting situation in Minnesota. Kyle Rudolph has been the man for a long time and has been pretty productive in that role. However, he is probably a bit overpaid as he heads into the last year of his contract. There has been a lot of talk about him being cut or traded, but I personally don’t think that will happen given how raw Smith is and the win now mentality of the team. Smith will need to learn the position this year with the best case being a starting role in 2020, but I think it could be longer.
Alexander Mattison, RB Boise State (Round 3, Pick 102)
Highly productive in college, Mattison was a jack of all trades but a master of none. He has some power but not enough to be a true power back. He has a few moves, but not enough to make people miss on a regular basis. He does a solid job in the passing game as well, but he isn’t explosive enough to be one of the elite pass-catching backs in the NFL. All of this makes him a highly qualified backup, but the ceiling is likely a bit limited.
I think Mattison is largely insurance for the oft-injured Dalvin Cook. With Latavius Murray leaving in free agency, the Vikings needed someone capable of filling in should Cook have another issue. While I think Mattison is capable of stepping into that role, I think his upside would be as a middle-level RB2. Given that he’s going to need an injury to realize that value, I’m likely looking elsewhere at his current ADP.
Dillon Mitchell, WR Oregon (Round 7, Pick 239) and Olabisi Johnson, WR Colorado State (Round 7, Pick 247)
I lumped these two together because of the situation. Both are unlikely to become starters in the NFL due to limited physical ability and/or talent at the position. While they have some redeeming qualities, they are likely to be practice squad players and special teams contributors instead of receivers who consistently see the field. Plus, if they did see the field, there aren’t a whole lot of targets left by the time you get through the rest of the offense.
That’s it for the NFC North!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
