Running Back Danger Rankings: 32-17

The NFL off-season is an incredibly intriguing part of the calendar year. After the conclusion of the Super Bowl, there are countless opportunities for dynasty players to improve their teams as player value fluctuates with each blurb of news.

There are a handful of events each off-season that have a huge impact on dynasty players. Free agency is one of them, while the NFL Scouting Combine is what truly sparks rookie fever year after year. Each subsequent prospect visit and mock draft alters how players view each team’s respective assets as NFL general managers work diligently to improve their real teams.

However, the NFL Draft is the single event each calendar year that has the ability to dramatically alter how dynasty players view each team, as depth charts shift and starters gain or lose value.

Due to the strength of the last few rookie running back classes, there are many feature backs entrenched as their team’s respective starter. Despite that, there are a handful of teams that could use significant improvement atop their depth charts. Some of these backs suffered a hit to their value during the free agency period when their team pursued another back. Others were able to breathe a sigh of relief, but another land mine is on the horizon with the upcoming NFL Draft. If you own these players, you must be prepared for this potential change in value.

Using Rotoworld’s depth chart, we’ll rank each team’s starter based on how dangerous they are to own. In the instances where the starter has drastically less dynasty value than one of his teammates, I will list both. The players on this list have a variety of risks, including injury or off-field issues, but this article will rank them solely with the NFL Draft in mind.

A team unlikely to draft a running back means their current starter would rank low on this “danger scale,” while a team almost certain to draft a running back means their current back is very dangerous to own right now.

We’ll go in reverse order, meaning these are some of the “safer” backs to own in dynasty leagues. Remember, this is not a ranking of the value of these backs, but only their danger level.

32. Le’Veon Bell, NYJ

After sitting out the 2018 season and signing with the Jets for four years and a maximum of $61m, New York is committing to him as their feature back going forward. The Jets still have Elijah McGuire and the newly signed Ty Montgomery in the fold as well, so the odds of them adding a threat via the draft are very low.

31. Saquon Barkley, NYG

Barkley is clearly not in danger of losing his job. The most valuable asset in dynasty is as safe as they come, but with just Wayne Gallman and Paul Perkins behind him on the depth chart, there is a chance the Giants add a running back on the final day of the draft as additional depth.

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30. Nick Chubb, CLE

Similarly to Barkley, Chubb performed extremely well in his rookie season once the Browns traded Carlos Hyde to Jacksonville. A look at the depth chart shows no glaring need to add additional running backs, but Kareem Hunt is suspended for the first half of the season and trade rumors have swirled around Duke Johnson. Chubb’s starting job is not in jeopardy, but there’s a chance some competition could be added in the later rounds.

29. Sony Michel/James White, NE

New England likes to highlight different players’ skill sets in distinct areas of the game, but the Patriots have no urgent need to add a running back with their depth chart intact from last season. James White is listed as the starter on Rotoworld’s depth chart, but Michel is the player who receives the bulk of the carries and the one who has the most dynasty value. Michel would benefit from additional work in the passing game, but, barring injury, is unlikely to find much of it with White in the fold.

28. Kerryon Johnson, DET

The Lions have too many holes on their roster to focus on the running back position. Johnson’s usage was frustrating, but he performed admirably in his rookie campaign, and after adding CJ Anderson in free agency, it would be a surprise if Detroit drafted a running back.

27. Alvin Kamara, NO

Mainstay Mark Ingram has finally moved on after seven seasons with New Orleans, but the Saints wasted no time in finding a replacement for him, inking Latavius Murray to a four-year deal in free agency. Since the depth chart has little behind those two players, the Saints may add another player in the later rounds, but it is unlikely this player challenges the tandem currently atop the depth chart.

26. Matt Breida/Tevin Coleman/Jerick McKinnon, SF

Unlike the first few names on this list, Breida, McKinnon, and Coleman aren’t proven workhorses. However, the 49ers made a significant financial commitment to McKinnon last off-season and Kyle Shanahan has familiarity with Coleman from his time in Atlanta, while Breida was the most effective back on the team last season. The scheme Shanahan operates has allowed average talents to excel, and with so many names in the running back room already – Coleman, McKinnon, Breida, Wilson Jr., and Mostert – they’ll probably focus on other areas of their roster. Figuring out which player will have the most touches is a different story, but they’re likely safe from battling a draft pick for competition.

25. Chris Carson/Rashaad Penny, SEA

The Seahawks shocked the world when they drafted Rashaad Penny last year, and then curiously opted to use Chris Carson for most of the season instead. It remains to be seen how their touches will be divvied up this season, but after spending a first rounder on Penny last year, it seems unlikely that Seattle will double down and take yet another running back in this draft.

24. Todd Gurley, LAR

Gurley’s contract should place him near the top of this list as an elite player with contract stability. However, the uncertainty around his knee condition alters what could have been. The Rams opted to let CJ Anderson walk but matched an offer sheet on Malcolm Brown and still have John Kelly in the fold, so it feels like their depth chart is set. Still, it feels quite possible that Los Angeles could add a back in the middle rounds to push Brown and Kelly if Gurley has a setback.

23. Joe Mixon, CIN

Mixon is entrenched as Cincinnati’s workhorse, but has yet to complete a full 16-game season through two years in the league. Meanwhile, Giovani Bernard is one of the better backup running backs in the NFL, but is entering the final year of his contract. Following Mark Walton’s release, there is a (minor) need to add depth here, but whomever this player ends up being will not be a threat to Mixon’s workload.

22. David Johnson, ARI

The Cardinals have a lot of holes on their roster, but running back is not one of them. With Chase Edmonds – a capable backup – behind the 27-year-old Johnson, Arizona should be able to focus on shoring up some of their biggest needs instead.

21. Christian McCaffrey, CAR

McCaffrey was the unquestioned feature back in the Panthers’ backfield in 2018. Since the season ended, head coach Ron Rivera has reiterated that he wants to ease off McCaffrey’s workload to keep him fresh and healthy. Because Cameron Artis-Payne is the only other running back on the roster, look for Carolina to draft one later on – but don’t expect him to garner significant touches.

20. Melvin Gordon, LAC

Gordon has been a true three-down workhorse since entering the league, but has dealt with some injury concerns throughout his career. He’s played a full 16-game season just once in four years and is entering the final year of his contract. With just Austin Ekeler (best suited for a change-of-pace role) and Justin Jackson behind him, there’s a chance the Chargers attempt to find Gordon’s future replacement a year early if they opt against signing him to an extension. Because I ultimately believe Gordon will stay in Los Angeles, he remains safer on this list.

19. Derrius Guice/Adrian Peterson, WAS

Guice remains a bit of an unknown post-ACL tear, but considering the draft capital spent on him last season, it’s probable that he is more than safe atop the depth chart, especially with the other areas of need on the team. Adrian Peterson is listed as the starter on Rotoworld’s depth chart, but it’s clear Guice is the player that has the most dynasty value. Even if Guice fails to return at full strength, Washington can ride Peterson and Chris Thompson for 2019 as they rebuild and draft a running back in 2020 instead.

18. Phillip Lindsay, DEN

Lindsay was a revelation in his rookie season and should continue to form a talented tandem with Royce Freeman going forward. It remains to be seen how a new coaching staff opts to utilize these two runners, but considering Devontae Booker is still under contract, the Broncos should be set at the position.

17. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

Elliott is in the last year of his rookie contract, and after agreeing to terms with Demarcus Lawrence, Dallas has decisions to make about how to proceed with contract negotiations with Elliott, Dak Prescott, and Amari Cooper. Perhaps more importantly, though, the Cowboys have nobody of note on the depth chart behind Zeke, so they’re highly likely to draft a backup.

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