2019 NFL Draft Prospect – Josh Jacobs, RB Alabama

Our NFL rookie profile series continues with this analysis of 2019 NFL Draft Prospect Josh Jacobs, RB of Alabama. You can also check out all of our NFL Draft Prospect articles here. We will continue to provide you with these in-depth rookie profiles and a ton of other fantasy football rookie analysis right up through the NFL Draft. Stay tuned, and stay ahead of your league!

Unlike last year when running back was considered the deepest position, this year’s draft has a different landscape. Josh Jacobs is considered to be the RB1 in this class by many experts, and we will dive in and see why.

According to DLF’s March 2019 Rookie Dynasty ADP, Jacobs lands in the fourth spot, sandwiched between five wide receivers. However, I am not sure he will end up being drafted that high unless he ends up in a more than ideal landing spot. The first running back taken off the board in your rookie draft may very well depend on the landing spots for the top three-four backs in this class.

The Stats

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Jacobs’ college production profile is one of the things that makes him a very intriguing prospect.

As the Alabama Crimson Tide churn out more NFL running backs, it can make it difficult to showcase just one guy, which was the case for Jacobs and his time in Tuscaloosa. Very rarely is the top running back in a class not actually the feature back at his own school. It is also rare that a top prospect rushes for less than 1,500 yards in three seasons combined. Such is the case with Jacobs.

Statistics from sports-reference.com.

Jacobs played in 14 games as a true freshman and you could see the talent already, but at that time, Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris where getting a decent amount of the work. Then in 2017, Jacobs had to compete with Scarbrough, Damien Harris, and incoming freshman Najee Harris as well. In 2018, Jacobs received a larger workload after Scarborough left, but still not a “workhorse” type load.

While many will scrutinize the playing time of Jacobs as a negative, I would disagree. Why would coach Nick Saban rely solely on one player when he can have three talented running backs who are fresh and ready to play every week? I do think Jacobs was the best running back on Alabama’s team last year, but we cannot fault Saban for wanting to utilize the three-headed monster (it got them back to the title game).

Jacobs’ fantastic vision and patience were showcased in 2018 when he scored a touchdown on every 11 carries that he had. While his profile doesn’t scream volume production, it does showcase an effective runner who averaged almost six yards per carry in his college career.

The Film

This is 1 of the runs that showcases why Jacobs is considered 1 of the top RB’s in this #NFLDraft2019

– Fantastic vision
– Natural patience
– A knack for breaking tackles

He ran a 4.6 40… but speed is not what his game is built around. @MyFantasyLeague @DLFootball #Dynasty pic.twitter.com/49SmhYM069

— Levi Chappell (@LeviChappell) March 25, 2019

Jacobs is a fun back to watch. He is built like your modern day, lead running back with a low center of gravity and a sturdy frame. One of the main knocks will be his top-line speed compared to other running backs. At his pro day, he ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash, which would have been the 17th-fastest time at the Scouting Combine. If you had Jacobs as your RB1 for this class, then the 40 time should not move him from your number one spot, because we know that speed is not what makes him a good player.

There are many things to like. Jacobs is hard to tackle and reminds me a bit of Alvin Kamara in that way. Defenders seem to slip off of him as though he was made of butter and he can use subtle movements to make them miss. On the other hand, when he feels like running over a defender, he will… just for kicks and giggles. He runs violently when defenders are in his path and finishes each run with force.

He is also an underrated pass-catcher out of the backfield and tracks the ball really well when it is in the air – something NFL teams will fall in love with once he is on their squad.

The Measurables

When you look at Jacobs’ spider graph courtesy of Mock Draftable, you will find some flattering comparisons. Unfortunately, Jacobs did not participate in any of the drills at the combine, so the graph is lacking in a few areas. Based strictly off of physical stature, Jacobs measures similar to two Pro Bowl running backs, Kareem Hunt and Ezekiel Elliott.

Jacobs’ body type is ideal for a true number one type running back, but as his 40-yard dash showed in his pro day, he may lack top-level athleticism. So here is the good news: he runs similarly to Hunt, has a similar body type, and actually ran the 40 a couple of milliseconds faster. Therefore, if Jacobs goes to the correct system (like Hunt had in Kansas City), I think he can be a productive player, and even a number one running back at some point.

With that said, banking on all running backs who run a 4.6 40-yard dash or slower to be as good as Hunt is a slippery slope. Not all sixth round wide receivers are going to be as good as Antonio Brown, and not all sixth round quarterbacks win six Super Bowls and marry Gisele… you get my point.

I think Jacobs can be a solid, productive running back at the next level, and I like what I see when I watch tape on him. If he ends up in a place like Philadelphia or Oakland, I think he could make a fantasy splash in his rookie season.

Dynasty Value

As of March 2019, Jacobs is being drafted on average as the fourth player (RB1) in 2019 Rookie Dynasty ADP. He has been drafted as high as number one and as low as number 11. While I would be very surprised to see Jacobs towards the back end of your rookie draft, much of his value will be placed on where he lands. I would be comfortable as of right now, drafting him at number four and would be surprised if he made it any farther than pick six or seven.

Conclusion

As I stated at the beginning of this article, the running back landscape for this draft is very rocky. It is anyone’s guess who the first taken will be, or if a team decides to spend a first round pick on one.

Jacobs’ Alabama teammate Damien Harris seems like a safe but somewhat underwhelming prospect. Jacobs is quite a bit riskier and doesn’t have the college production to show for it, but his ceiling could be higher.

Will Jacobs’ average athleticism cause NFL teams to drop him into the second or third round? Or will his vision and running style make teams go all in for him?

It’ll be fun to watch how it all unfolds in April.

Follow me on Twitter @LeviChappell.

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