Dynasty Diatribe: Don’t Self Sabotage Your Chance at a Title
It was American big-wave surfer Laird Hamilton who said: “Make sure your worst enemy doesn’t live between your own two ears.” Now, I doubt Hamilton is a dynasty degenerate like the rest of us, but this quotation can be directly applied to this fake football game we all adore.
We have reached that point in the season where each and every weekly matchup is crucial for contending dynasty owners. A spot in the playoffs, a bye in said playoffs, and even winning your league title can hinge on the lineup choices you make in the next five weeks.
While a dynasty owner must do their due diligence in putting forth the strongest lineup possible, it is imperative not to outsmart yourself and make a catastrophic mistake. How am I aware of this terrible possibility? Unfortunately, three years ago in my home redraft league, I made the kind of dreadful lineup decision which still haunts me to this very day.
Reliving this particular event in my fantasy football life will not be easy, but I must soldier on for the greater good. If my story of stupidity can save the life of just one dynasty squad this playoff season, then it will have been worth it.
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The Backstory
The year was 2015; “fake news” only applied to satirical news programs like The Daily Show and Colbert Report, Donald Trump was best known for being a reality television star, and I was making a run at the ‘Ship in my 12-team, PPR, six-point passing touchdown redraft league.
This particular league is my most important for a plethora of reasons. First and foremost, both the dues ($125) and the grand prize ($1,000) are the largest of any of my participating leagues. More important than the financial investment/windfall, the collection of gentleman cutthroat, depraved fantasy savages (many I’ve known for the past 15 years) produces a level of smack talk which would make Andrew Dice Clay blush. The infusion of cash for winning first place is great but pales in comparison to being the king of trash talk for the entire off-season.
The 2015 Fantasy Campaign
I had won the league in my inaugural season of 2011 but not yet repeated as champion. Worse, I failed to advance out of the opening round of the playoffs since tasting that sweet victory nectar. I sat 5-2 through seven weeks in 2015, but didn’t feel like my team was of championship caliber and needed to make a splash. After days of intense negotiations, my friend and I agreed to be below deal.
I RECEIVED
Todd Gurley, STL RB
Matthew Stafford, DET QB
Eric Decker, NYJ WR
Charcandrick West, KC RB
I TRADED AWAY
Drew Brees, NO QB
Calvin Johnson, DET WR
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI WR
My golden rule for trades is you always want to be receiving the best player in the deal and for my money that was Todd Gurley even as a rookie. The early returns of the trade worked out well for yours truly. The Los Angeles St. Louis rookie back averaged 20 points over those three weeks and after week ten I sat with a 7-3 record in the catbird seat for a playoff bye.
Unfortunately, the wheels fell off the wagon from weeks 11-13. Gurley looked to hit the infamous rookie wall and only averaged 6.6 points per week (including two straight four-point clunkers in weeks 12 and 13) from my RB2 spot. I lost three games in a row and backdoored my way into the playoffs as the sixth seed.
The Decision
As you might have guessed, I was less than pleased with a certain University of Georgia product at this point. To make matters worse, Chris Ivory, the man who lost his spot in my starting lineup after the trade, was averaging a sturdy 12 points per game over those fateful last three weeks.
My first round opponent had a stacked squad with the 2015 versions of A.J. Green, Julio Jones, and Brandon Marshall. I knew another four-point game from Gurley would sink me. Yet, Ivory didn’t possess Gurley’s immense upside needed in a possible high scoring affair.
From Tuesday until the early Sunday afternoon I consumed every piece of fantasy football information imaginable. The majority of the fantasy community had Ivory ranked ahead of Gurley, but it was close. The general consensus I took from Sirius XM, online content, and conversations with fantasy obsessed friends was this; while Gurley had the higher ceiling, his floor (which I had seen over the last three weeks) was dreadfully low. Still, in the back of my mind a little voice kept telling me: “You gave up a king’s ransom to acquire the former Bulldog and you can’t sit him now.”
I switched the two players at least a dozen times throughout that week (and a handful specifically on Sunday morning) then, at 12:45 pm, I decided to take the safer option and locked Ivory into my RB2 slot.
The Repercussions
Ivory affirmed my decision to play it safe as he scored a steady 13 points and kept me alive in the matchup. Unfortunately, Todd Gurley rushed for 140 yards, two touchdowns, and his 29 (!) fantasy points more than doubled Ivory’s output. To say I was dejected would be an understatement. Yet, I still had a pulse going into Monday Night Football. I was down by 25 with Lamar Miller going up against a bad New York Giants defense.
The first half could not have gone any better as Miller had 69 rushing yards, two touchdowns, and was sitting at 18 fantasy points. I’ll never forget thinking at halftime: “Eight more fantasy points shouldn’t be so hard…” It was. Miller received only five more carries the entire game for 20 rushing yards and, as an extra kick in the groin, did not receive a single touch after the 11-minute mark of the fourth quarter. I stared at the television in utter disbelief. As much as I wanted to blame the Dolphins coaching staff, I knew the fault lies squarely with the man in the mirror and the decision I had made 36 hours earlier.
Recency Bias: The Opiate of the Masses
What happened? That’s a question I asked myself for the next few days of sulking per post-mortem tradition. I may not have realized the exact term at the time, but I was a victim of recency bias and wasn’t the only one. In that week’s FanDuel millionaire tournament featuring 120 entrants, Gurley was only on three rosters including the first place winner.
As my good friend Shaun Laibe always says: “Recency bias is a hell of a drug,” and it can be most dangerous at this time of year. With the pressure to win at its highest, fantasy managers need to resist the urge to have a strictly “what have you done for me lately?” kind of attitude. This is not to read keep sticking with inconsistent players in your lineup when reliable options are waiting in the wings. I’m speaking directly of not overreacting to a bad few weeks from a dependable starter by benching him with the end of the bench player who caught a long touchdown the prior week.
Week Ten Cases Against Recency Bias
Tre’Quan Smith set the dynasty community abuzz with his week five performance against Washington where he pulled in 111 receiving yards and two touchdowns (one was a record-breaker for Drew Brees). Smith has only been averaging four targets and 49 receiving yards per game in his last four contests. Even in his breakout performance, he did all of his damage on three receptions (and three targets). Yet, Smith caught a touchdown last week causing many to overlook his low target share (7.2%) believing he was a solid start on Sunday.
Conversely, nobody would argue things haven’t been tough sledding for Kenny Golladay the last few weeks. Yet, Babytron’s issues appeared a product of a Lions team lacking any kind of direction (as a Browns fan I’m easily able to spot these symptoms) as opposed to the start of a troubling trend. In fact, Golladay had a much better opportunity for targets than a player like Smith due to the departure of Golden Tate. The recency bias consuming masses of our instantaneous society would not believe this as the Lion receiver underwhelmed (3/46) in his first game sans Tate in week nine. Many times, it will take an offense a few weeks to find its footing when they lose (or gain) a key cog in the offensive arsenal.
The results? Golladay got back on track (albeit in catch-up mode) hauling in six catches for 78 yards and a score, and the Saints rookie receiver…? He ghosted his dynasty owners and did not receive a single target (!) in a game where the Saints lit up the scoreboard for 51 points.
How to Avoid the Self Sabotage
The best way to address solving any problem is to consume as much information as possible on the topic. There are a ton of fantastic fake football resources out there on the interwebs to help you make those truly perplexing lineup decisions.
Which do I recommend? Here at DLF, take advantage of Jeff Haverlack’s extremely beneficial weekly lineup advice and Ryan McDowell’s invaluable Sunday Morning Huddle among the other great resources on the site. I always consult both the customizable rankings over at 4for4 Fantasy or the consistency data at my redraft writing home of Big Guy Fantasy Sports.
It’s been said: “Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.” I have my own version, “those who do not learn lessons from their foolish fantasy football mistakes will repeat them and never bring home the ‘Ship.” It took me a season, but I’ve been made aware of my recency bias problem and am working to address it like all of you.
What was the big change for me? Last season as I began my fantasy football writing career, I became both a much better researcher and strengthened my resolve to tune out the fantasy groupthink which we all fall victim to far too often. The change helped me play in three championships (out of five leagues) last season and bring home the title in two of them… Yes, I won the below title belt (and year-long bragging rights) in my league of fantasy degenerates very good friends.
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