Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired
Standing still is the fastest way of moving backwards in a rapidly changing dynasty landscape. The best dynasty teams are the most active in looking for ways to add value to their dynasty rosters, as part of a continuous process.
The Dynasty Targets Acquired series focuses on making dynasty buys to improve your roster, heading towards one of two key destinations – contending to win a dynasty title in 2023 or rebuilding for a dynasty title challenge in 2024. Each article in the series will highlight a dynasty buy for both contenders and rebuilders – with three trade ideas based on the DLF Trade Analyzer: Pivot Up, Same Tier or Pivot Down.
Buying as a contender is all about winning the title now, whilst leaving the window open to compete again year after year. Buying as a rebuilder is all about making the right trades to maximize roster value next season and become a contender for a dynasty championship.
TIME CONTEXT AND STRATEGY
It’s week 11 of the season, and if you’re still unsure about the status of your dynasty roster it’s time to get off the fence. Failing to act now one way or the other will doom your franchise to the dynasty purgatory of seventh/eighth place finishes year after year.
Are you a running back away from securing your playoff berth? Go make a deal!
Have injuries and underperformances left you with a few stars surrounded by a sea of mediocrity? Time to ship those stars off to greener pastures and acquire the building blocks to start over.
CONTENDER BUY – James Conner, RB ARI
The moment dynasty managers were waiting for is finally here; Conner has returned to the lineup post-knee injury. The Cardinals RB1 toted the rock 16 times for 73 yards while playing 63% of the offensive snaps in Sunday’s victory over the Falcons. The former Steeler is a welcome oasis in the barren, desert landscape of the fantasy running back position.
Conner averaged over 20 fantasy points per game over the final five weeks of the fantasy season in 2022. He’s a steady RB2 with week-winning upside coveted by dynasty contenders at this point in the season.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
- Cedric Tillman and a 2024 third-round pick = James Conner
Yes, Tillman has done next to nothing on the season, but the Browns’ recent trade of Donovan Peoples-Jones to the Lions shows their faith in the Tennessee alum. Tillman played 85% of the offensive snaps in Sunday’s win in Baltimore and made the block of the day. He is stashed on my rosters of contenders and pretenders alike, but I’m more than willing to move him on the former to improve my team in the short term. Due to Tillman’s lack of production, a future draft pick will be needed to get this deal done. It’s more than worth it to shore up your running back room for the stretch run.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
- Jonathan Mingo = James Conner
There’s good news and bad news for Mingo: the good news, he is second on the team in both targets (45) and snap percentage (85%). Unfortunately, this involvement has not translated to production as the rookie wideout has 200 yards on 23 scoreless receptions. If you have championship aspirations, you cannot afford that volatility (WR79) in your weekly lineup. Yet, the long-term outlook is bright; he can be an asset to any rebuilding roster. You may need to include a future fourth-round pick as a sweetener to snag Conner.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
- Marvin Mims = James Conner and Brandin Cooks
Mims has been a ghost in the Broncos aerial attack in the last five games. While he’s unstartable for teams trying to win the ‘Ship, his first four contests of the season (9-242-1) demonstrate his enormous ceiling. Courtland Sutton has an out in his contract after this season and Jerry Jeudy (the talk of many trade rumors) is an unrestricted free agent after 2024. Look for Mims to live up to his second-round draft capital next season. He should be a priority for all dynasty managers planning for next year.
Yes, you are buying high on Cooks after his monstrous (9-173-1) outing against the Giants last Sunday. Yet, he’s the type of veteran on an ascending offense who can provide that type of pop in your last flex spot over these last few weeks.
REBUILDER BUY – George Pickens, WR PIT
It’s been a disappointing sophomore season for Pickens and those dynasty managers with roster shares. The Georgia alum only has three weekly top-24 fantasy finishes while sitting outside the top 30 (WR34) at the position. A combination of porous quarterback play and a stagnant offense have left many (including Pickens himself) frustrated.
Pickens’ current predicament presents a unique buying opportunity for savvy dynasty degenerates. The second-year wideout has still flashed his immense upside (4-127-1; 6-130-1; 5-107) in those three breakout games. Plus, the Steelers are NOT a rebuilding franchise. Expect them to spend the entire off-season finding a significant upgrade under center.
Remember when I quoted Dillon’s favorite fictional salesman Buddy Garrity (“When all the scared rats are leaving a sinking market, that’s when a real entrepreneur steps in – a true visionary”) in telling contenders to pick up Dak Prescott after week five. Well, Prescott is QB1 since, and the true dynasty visionaries will be thankful next season they bought low on George Pickens right now.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
- Mike Evans and Aaron Jones = George Pickens
Evans (WR11) should not be on any dynasty roster that isn’t competing for the championship. You’re both hurting next year’s draft position and failing to cash in on his attractiveness to a contender.
Aaron Jones’ injury-riddled season may be a key factor in your team transitioning to the rebuilding phase. Yet, his RB7 finish in week nine shows he’s still a valuable RB2 with top ten upside to those with championship aspirations. This deal is a win-win for both parties.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
- Rhamondre Stevenson = George Pickens
Stevenson (RB14) is currently on bye and looks to have avoided a serious back injury against the Colts in Germany on Sunday. The Patriots’ scheduled time off may mean waiting till early next week until your contending league mate will want to pull the trigger on this deal. This could work to your benefit should Pickens get shut down against a tough Cleveland defense, but it’s still risky should he spring free for a long score. Remind your counterpart of the desperate reality of the fantasy running back landscape to push him in the right direction.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
- Mark Andrews = George Pickens and a 2024 second-round pick
Just like the above Evans example, having the TE3 on your depleted dynasty roster is detrimental to your overall goal of retooling your team. The tight end position is just as messy (if not more) as the running backs and it’s time to cash in on your golden ticket named Andrews. Pickens and a top 24 selection in next year’s rookie draft are a good haul.
You’re either looking for the missing piece to your championship puzzle or being proactive about the off-season. Not only making the correct moves but deciding which camp you belong in are absolute necessities to be successful in this year-long pressure cooker of dynasty fantasy football.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - December 8, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - November 17, 2023
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - October 13, 2023
