Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Ten

Ryan McDowell

Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.

The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.

EARLY GAMES

DETROIT AT CHICAGO

The Bears are expected to have wide receiver Allen Robinson back on the field after he missed two games with a groin injury. Even before he was hurt, there were some concerns with Robinson, who was not being used as the WR1 fantasy owners thought he was. Beginning this week against the Lions, Robinson will have a chance to establish himself as the clear top target but he has a lot of competition in the form of receivers Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller, tight end Trey Burton and running back Tarik Cohen. Through the team’s first six games prior to the ARob injury, he owned a narrow lead in targets but was just fourth in receptions and receiving yards.

After just one game without former target leader Golden Tate, there are still plenty of questions about which player will benefit from the trade that sent Tate to Philly. Last week saw the return of running back Theo Riddick and he earned some slot snaps, as did receiver T.J. Jones. Rookie Brandon Powell was a popular add in dynasty leagues following the trade, but he didn’t even play a snap. To make things even messier, Detroit signed former Texans slot man Bruce Ellington. I’m still banking on Riddick emerging here.

NEW ORLEANS AT CINCINNATI

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The Bengals were on bye last week but they couldn’t help but feel like they lost as they learned they’d be without superstar receiver A.J. Green for at least two games as he deals with a toe injury. The timing couldn’t be worse for a team pushing to stay in contention and set to face the high-scoring Saints. For fantasy players, the timing is equally poor as the Saints are one of the league’s worst defenses against receivers, allowing a league-high 11 top 24 fantasy performances to opposing wideouts. Breakout receiver Tyler Boyd will surely see more looks and the Bengals should also have former first-rounder John Ross back in action.

The big story of the week, actually the big stories of the week, centered on veteran receiver Dez Bryant. After officially signing with the Saints on Wednesday, Bryant suffered a torn Achilles in Friday’s practice, ending his season before it began. This is obviously devastating news for Bryant, who was already lacking suitors on the open market. His career could be over. It also leaves the Saints in a rough spot. The team placed receiver Cameron Meredith on the injured reserve list this week and is down to just three healthy wideouts. Rookie Tre’Quan Smith should see a spike in targets, at least until the Saints add another receiver.

ATLANTA AT CLEVELAND

Entering this game, Browns tight end David Njoku carries a questionable tag due to knee and rib injuries. The second-year man is expected to play through it and fantasy players are hoping Njoku can break out of his mini-slump. After three straight TE10 or better finishes, Njoku has finished as the TE46 and TE15 in the past two weeks. The Falcons are among the league’s worst defenses when it comes to fantasy tight ends, allowing five TE1 games this season.

One of the most underrated players of the first half of the season has been Falcons rookie back Ito Smith. After the injury to veteran back Devonta Freeman, most expected Tevin Coleman to take over the backfield in a commanding fashion. Instead, the backfield has essentially turned into a 60/40 share and Smith has 33 touches over the past three games compared to 42 for Coleman. Even more encouraging for Smith and his long-term role is Smith red zone usage. Smith has 15 red zone carries to eight for Coleman.

JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS

This is a huge game for Colts running back Marlon Mack, who is coming off a pair of top three fantasy performances prior to the team’s bye last week. Mack has played only four games this season due to multiple injuries and was limited in practices this week, as well. With another big performance against the strong Jags defense, Mack could establish himself as a top 20 dynasty back, or maybe even higher.

The Jaguars will get running back Leonard Fournette back on the field after missing time with a hamstring injury. Fournette has missed four consecutive games and six total due to the injury. Even in the two games he played, Fournette was forced from the game early. Since he’s been on the shelf, the Jags traded for veteran Carlos Hyde, though he has made little impact. Veteran T.J. Yeldon has performed as an RB1 for much of the season though Fournette’s return obviously changes Yeldon’s role.

ARIZONA AT KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs could be without the services of receiver Sammy Watkins as they host Arizona. Watkins has been dealing with a foot injury, which cost him the majority of practice time this week. Watkins has drawn a questionable tag and could still play but if he does sit out, wide receivers Chris Conley and Demarcus Robinson would both see a bump in playing time. When Watkins left the team’s Week Four game with an injury, Robinson (58%) and Conley (93%) each set season-highs in snaps played.

Under new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, it is no surprise that the Cardinals showed improvement in many areas in Week Eight and now they’ve had a bye to further implement potential changes from the Mike McCoy days. While the odds are stacked against the Cardinals as they face the Chiefs, there is some upside with running back David Johnson. The Chiefs have allowed a league-high 12 top 24 games to opposing running backs. Yes, 12 in only nine games. No other team has given up more than nine top 24 performances. Johnson peaked with an RB10 finish in Week Five and has season-highs of 71 rushing yards and 41 receiving yards.

BUFFALO AT NEW YORK JETS

The disastrous season continues for the Bills, who have been especially inept at the quarterback position. With both Josh Allen (elbow) and Derek Anderson (concussion) ruled out, the Bills have elected to start journeyman Matt Barkley, whom they only signed two weeks ago. This says everything we need to know about quarterback Nathan Peterman. In the end, it probably doesn’t matter which quarterback suits up for this pitiful offense.

It is interesting timing that Jets rookie quarterback Sam Darnold came away from a season-worst game last week with a foot injury that will keep him out of this contest against the Bills battering defense. After a promising debut in which his team’s defense destroyed the Lions and Darnold got a lot of credit, the former USC star has only two fantasy finishes inside the top 20 signal callers. His zero touchdown, four-interception game against the Dolphins last week may have caused the team to be concerned about his growth. While Darnold is still the obvious long-term solution for the Jets, they’ll turn to veteran Josh McCown.

WASHINGTON AT TAMPA BAY

The Redskins have ruled out receiver Jamison Crowder once again. He hasn’t suited up since Week Five. Washington has tried multiple options as the top target for quarterback Alex Smith and they’ve either flopped or suffered an injury. Last week, we witnessed a breakout game for receiver Maurice Harris, who caught ten of 12 targets for 124 yards and finished as the WR7 for the week. Harris is in a perfect spot for another big game against the Buccaneers, who can’t see to defend slot receivers at all. After spending draft picks and free agency capital to address their receiver position, the Redskins might have found part of the answer in former undrafted free agent Harris, who also celebrates his 26th birthday today.

Young receiver Chris Godwin was pegged for a breakout role this season with veteran DeSean Jackson expected to see his role diminish or even lose his roster spot. That simply hasn’t happened and while Jackson has been an inconsistent threat, Godwin has been only a complementary player. Godwin has just one finish inside the weekly top 24 receivers and has three straight games as the WR38 or worse. With tight end O.J. Howard’s emergence, Godwin has fallen to the fourth option in the passing game.

NEW ENGLAND AT TENNESSEE

As they visit Tennessee, the Patriots are expected to be without tight end Rob Gronkowski, who is dealing with ankle and back injuries. Gronk missed last week’s contest and sitting out this one makes sense with the Pats on bye next week. Gronkowski has been frustrating for fantasy players even when he’s played, finishing outside of TE1 range four times already, which ties a career-worst mark. Don’t bother looking for any in-house replacements for Gronkowski as the Patriots have no other real threats at the position.

Let’s dig deep here. After veteran tight end Delanie Walker suffered a season-ending injury in Week One, second-year tight end Jonnu Smith was gifted a huge opportunity as the team’s new starter. Through five games, he did next to nothing with that opportunity, failing to even record a reception in three different games. Over the past two games, Smith has posted his best fantasy finishes of the season, a modest TE28 before the bye and then last week’s TE9 game. With wide receiver Taywan Taylor expected to miss the game, Smith could potentially see a slight uptick in targets.

LATE GAMES

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT OAKLAND

I have to admit, I’m a little worried about Chargers backup running back Austin Ekeler. After starting the season as an every-week flex-worthy player, Ekeler’s playing time and number of touches have dipped in the past couple of games, resulting in a season-low number of snaps (18%), touches (four) and fantasy points (4.4). Facing an Oakland team that has given up on the season, this should be a smash spot for starter Melvin Gordon and even if Ekeler gets the leftovers, he could be a nice fantasy flex option in this game.

Based on some playing time and opportunity numbers, Rotoworld’s Evan Silva recently made a strong case that the Raiders might simply be tanking on this season, using players like tight end Jared Cook and wide receiver Martavis Bryant less while increasing the playing time of subpar talents like Brandon LaFell and DeAndre Washington. Because of this, it makes it difficult to rely on any Raiders or project how they might fare. With that said, and with the assumption that the Chargers will control this game from the get-go, Oakland should continue to use running back Jalen Richard as a pass catcher out of the backfield. He’s led the team in targets (12), receptions (12) and receiving yards (95) over the past two games.

MIAMI AT GREEN BAY

One of the biggest disappointments of the season based on my own personal expectations has been the performance of Dolphins rookie tight end Mike Gesicki. Although it is quite rare, I expected Gesicki to finish as a TE1 for the season, just as we saw Giants tight end Evan Engram do a year ago. Gesicki has yet to even finish as a TE1 in any single game, topping out at TE18 in Week Seven when he had a season-high 44 yards. Even in an offense that entered the season with nearly 300 available targets based on players lost from the previous season, Gesicki has not found a consistent role. Unfortunately, things don’t get easier for the former Penn State star. The Packers are one of only two teams who have yet to allow a touchdown to opposing tight ends and have given up just one TE1 game all season.

With receiver Geronimo Allison on the injured reserve list and veteran Randall Cobb iffy to even play as his hamstring injury flared up again, it is another huge opportunity for rookies Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown. The breakout has already begun for MVS, who has seen the playing time and target share to make him a viable fantasy starter moving forward. Valdes-Scantling has quickly joined players like Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore as the top rookie wideouts.

SEATTLE AT LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Rams, coming off their first loss of the season, find themselves in an excellent spot for a dominating win. In his past three games against Seattle over the past season and a half, running back Todd Gurley has averaged 22 touches for 113 yards and 2.3 touchdowns. He’s scored at least three touchdowns in the past two games against the Seahawks. As always, he’s the top running back option for the week.

There is some doubt about who will start at running back for the Seahawks. Chris Carson played sparingly last week as he dealt with a hip injury and that same issue now has him questionable for this game. If Carson can’t go or simply isn’t at full strength, we’ll see veteran Mike Davis carry the load. Davis has been very reliable when called upon this season. He’s led the team in carries twice on the year. In Week Four, Davis was the RB6, totaling 124 yards and two touchdowns. Last week, Davis finished as the RB11 after he took over for Carson, racking up 107 total yards. Maybe Davis is simply better than Carson regardless of health.

SUNDAY NIGHT

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA

In last week’s Dallas debut for wide receiver Amari Cooper, he got the clear WR1 treatment, seeing a team-high eight targets and posting a 5/58/1 line. For Cooper to live up to the lofty expectations, the Dallas offense is going to have to become more reliant on the passing game. Maybe that happens with Cooper now on the roster but there’s a long way to go. Dallas is thirtieth in the league with just 29.8 pass attempts per game, even though they are typically falling behind their competition. This is another game where game script could hopefully boost the passing volume and help Cooper at the same time.

It’s been nearly two weeks since the Eagles traded for wide receiver Golden Tate and following their bye week, we will get to see Tate’s Philly debut on a national stage. There’s been much discussion about which players will benefit or be hurt by Tate’s addition but now we actually get to see how that plays out. The move is almost certainly bad news for receiver Nelson Agholor, who was already fading fast as a dynasty asset but it could ding the production of tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. Conventional wisdom says that outside receiver Alshon Jeffery should not be impacted much but I’m anxious to see if Tate can be the target monster he has been for the Lions, where he averaged ten targets a game this season.

MONDAY NIGHT

NEW YORK GIANTS AT SAN FRANCISCO

The Giants are coming off their bye and head coach Pat Shurmur is clearly feeling the pressure when it comes to his quarterback. Shurmur had earlier commented “we’ll see” when asked earlier if veteran Eli Manning would be the team’s starter following their week off but then confirmed Manning would get the nod. Rookie Kyle Lauletta might have blown his chance at taking Manning’s job this week after being arrested following a traffic altercation. Lauletta will not be suspended and will certainly get a chance at some point this season as the Giants begin to consider the future of their quarterback position, which is clearly not Manning. Facing the Niners on Monday Night Football, Lauletta-watch is officially on!

Former undrafted free agent Nick Mullens will get his second straight start at quarterback for the 49ers after dismantling the Raiders on Thursday night in Week Nine. Mullens threw for 262 yards and three touchdowns in one of the best debut performances by a quarterback in recent years. While Mullens deserves a lot of credit, we need to be careful considering the opponent. The Giants have struggled as well so this could be another big game for the unheralded quarterback.

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ryan mcdowell